PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[LowerGarfield]

2 minutes ago, TonyP said:

Really weird precip, not as frozen as typical hail, it’s kind of fluffier??

If it's fluffy and feels like cotton candy, it's graupel. We get it a lot on the east side esp in the Spring and Fall.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

I’ve been on a date tonight and not paying attention to the weather this is crazy!

Score! 

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

I’ve been on a date tonight and not paying attention to the weather this is crazy!

That's great! Just don't bring the models into it until you're committed. Otherwise they'll laugh and conversation will quickly move on to other topics. But that's how the last month has gone anyway haha. But seriously, good for paying attention to your date.

[Gradient Keeper]

IR Imagery
1/28/23 7:08 PM

Strong high pressure is in control offshore and over the bulk of the Gulf of Alaska. An initial modified arctic boundary is now sweeping southwest into Northwest and Northern Oregon. Much colder, arctic air is spilling southwest into Eastern Washington and over the next 12-24 hours will progress further into the Columbia Basin and Gorge. Not a bitter shot for us by any means, but not exactly warm either.

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Score! 

How are the ensembles looking?

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Score! 

Score twice?   

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, LowerGarfield said:

How are the ensembles looking?

Similar to this.

[SouthHillFrosty]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am not sure what is happening in Puyallup... but I think @SouthHillFrosty kept his original user name even though he moved north so he is not in Puyallup any longer.

Yup u right, thanks!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

How are the ensembles looking?

I fell asleep just looking at the latest GEFS.  

[LowerGarfield]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I fell asleep just looking at the latest GEFS.  

and for him on his date?

[MossMan]

36 degrees with a DP of 25.

Its not snowing. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

That's great! Just don't bring the models into it until you're committed. Otherwise they'll laugh and conversation will quickly move on to other topics. But that's how the last month has gone anyway haha. But seriously, good for paying attention to your date.

Yeah... mentioning the GFS and ECMWF and ensembles on the first date is probably a bad idea.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Current 925mb/850mb

[GHweatherChris]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Current 925mb/850mb

Gross

[Phishy Wx]

19  WC 15

[Gradient Keeper]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... mentioning the GFS and ECMWF and ensembles on the first date is probably a bad idea.  

Nah, that's just not the right girl. Gotta find the right one.

Right there on my online dating profile it states, "Must have a mutual love for computer models, model riding, and 360-384hr snow maps. At any point during dating our any occasion weather discussions must be held at a high priority."

[Hour364Please]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am not sure what is happening in Puyallup... but I think @SouthHillFrosty kept his original user name even though he moved north so he is not in Puyallup any longer.

IT IS NOT SNOWING IN PUYALLUP

Can I talk to the manager?

[Phil]

37 minutes ago, TonyP said:

Really weird precip, not as frozen as typical hail, it’s kind of fluffier??

Corn snow aka graupel.

[snow_wizard]

Lots of single digits in the NE corner of WA now.

[snow_wizard]

48 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Holy shiiet. Biggest hail I’ve ever seen here a bit ago. 

Weird.

[Cold Snap]

49 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Holy shiiet. Biggest hail I’ve ever seen here a bit ago. 

Love how you used a lighter with a toker poker for a size comparison.

[Gradient Keeper]

Oops. Was I supposed to post the 00z GFS....

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Lots of single digits in the NE corner of WA now.

Such a quick hitter... 850mb temp bottoms out in Seattle in about 10 hours around dawn tomorrow and then slow moderation begins.

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

If it did what it did here, in Terrebonne, this evening, in one small town in the puget sound, you guys would be calling it an epic storm.  

Very good point. 

I'm always fine with these dry cold snaps as long as it's not a situation where it snows a foot 20 miles from here and I get nothing.  Good chance February is going to have another chance or two for the West side of the mountains.

[SnowWillarrive]

52 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Puyallup getting nailed while I get nothing…Weird year. 

Arctic front hung up over swamp 

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Such a quick hitter... 850mb temp bottoms out in Seattle in about 10 hours around dawn tomorrow and then slow moderation begins.

Yeah.  The ECMWF hints at some upper teens for outlying areas tomorrow night.  We shall see if it's right.

[MossMan]

46 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

How are the ensembles looking?

Not sure…But I just scrolled past this fine FB news article just now and it looks like he was looking at ensembles on his phone! 

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS takes away almost all precip for western WA for Tuesday night and Wednesday.  

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day through Day 4

 

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Arctic front hung up over swamp 

I think it was an east wind / NW wind convergence.

[TT-SEA]

Next system finally approaches Thursday night... so we might get 5 dry days in a row.    

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 decent trough approaching.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the GFS might split the PV later next week.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Next system finally approaches Thursday night... so we might get 5 dry days in a row.    

Chilly and dry works for me.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 5 decent trough approaching.

Looks like its getting sheared apart in favor of another trough digging to the west... precip looks unimpressive.  

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the GFS might split the PV later next week.

Wha?

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like its getting sheared apart in favor of another trough digging to the west... precip looks unimpressive.  

Looks like my truck will stay clean for most of the week! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the GFS might split the PV later next week.

I am no PV expert... but this does not look like a split to me.  

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the GFS might split the PV later next week.

Here we go!

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 29 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Terreboner2 said:

Another hour 129 forecast that will look nothing like it will by hour 0.

I think its a safe bet there will be fairly typical front and some rain later this week.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[kokaneekidz]

1 hour ago, TonyP said:

Really weird precip, not as frozen as typical hail, it’s kind of fluffier??

Graupel is the terminology.  Comes from German language 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall totals, including the southwestern US. The bulk of moisture is once again aimed to our south into California.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Snowfall totals, including the southwestern US. The Sierras fare fairly well.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, Terreboner2 said:

If it did what it did here, in Terrebonne, this evening, in one small town in the puget sound, you guys would be calling it an epic storm.  

Must be getting pretty deep. Closing in on a foot yet?

[NWbyNW]

4 hours ago, MossMan said:

What to do when an arctic blast is descending upon you…Wash the vehicles! First time since October. 

 

I'd give em' a wash.  I washed mine last week and it's still shiny and clean looking.