PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

It would not take much the next 60-66 hours to dig the trough better. A small adjustment upstream. I haven't waved the white flag just yet.

[Cascadia_Wx]

All this despite PERFECT TELECONNECTIONS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Jbolin]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8

That's a massive cock-and-balls trough situation in NE Canada, 'eh? 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, JSnowlin said:

That's a massive cock-and-balls trough situation in NE Canada, 'eh? 

That should be anchored over Williams Lake, BC. We got ripped off again.

[Gradient Keeper]

Friggin block is just too close. Always somethin'

6z NAM in 43 minutes

[Deweydog]

14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

All this despite PERFECT TELECONNECTIONS

I don’t think Jesse is pleased with me.

[Gradient Keeper]

The trend with the models is not good and if the trough continues to edge further east this won't be much more than a passing chilly shot. That's just sad reality. Ya never know how tomorrow's runs will look and that's why we model ride.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

I'd like to hear some rationale.

It’s basically an anchor of stability in a pretty dynamic pattern otherwise. I posted about it a couple days ago as being at least kind of peculiar and I think it’s at least a factor in returning things so quickly to a more stable longwave pattern.

 

[Deweydog]

All in all, I think it’s safe to say Wednesday lived up to its potential.

Bloody badminton runs ahead!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z CMCE didn't change much in terms of cold. 850s -12c PDX, -16c Gorge.

[Front Ranger]

19 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It’s basically an anchor of stability in a pretty dynamic pattern otherwise. I posted about it a couple days ago as being at least kind of peculiar and I think it’s at least a factor in returning things so quickly to a more stable longwave pattern.

 

Gotcha. I don't think it's messing anything up for the PNW as far as the cold blast is concerned, but could be right that it's a feature signaling a return to an overall non-blocky pattern faster.

Though I'm still not sure why that would be, given that we've had plenty of -EPO/+NAO patterns sustain in the past.

[WeatherGeek2022]

cmon february don't disappoint.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Gotcha. I don't think it's messing anything up for the PNW as far as the cold blast is concerned, but could be right that it's a feature signaling a return to an overall non-blocky pattern faster.

Though I'm still not sure why that would be, given that we've had plenty of -EPO/+NAO patterns sustain in the past.

Yeah, I did more checking of similar patterns which yielded more durable blocks and it wasn’t too unusual to have a fairly stable HB vortex, although they seemed a bit more dynamic overall. It may just be coincidental, just a less than consequential bi-product of a fairly entrenched tendency for blocks to be hyper-unstable.

[ShawniganLake]

44 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

That's a massive cock-and-balls trough situation in NE Canada, 'eh? 

Looks to be centered over Dildo, Newfoundland. 

[snow_wizard]

I'm thinking this weekend / early next week won't be the main event of the last half of winter.  Good shot at seeing another blocking regime set up.  SSW will soon complete and then a good shot at either MJO 5 or 7 a bit down the road.

[SouthHillFrosty]

GEFS and EPS looked horrible 

[ShawniganLake]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm thinking this weekend / early next week won't be the main event of the last half of winter.  Good shot at seeing another blocking regime set up.  SSW will soon complete and then a good shot at either MJO 5 or 7 a bit down the road.

Sounds like this isn’t going to go down as a true SSW.  The vortex is battered but not broken. Not sure if it matters in the big picture.  I’m sure there will be some lowland snow chances at some point over the next 6-7 weeks.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

38F with a nice chilly fog out there.

[Deweydog]

Down to 45 at PDX.

[Gradient Keeper]

What went wrong? Why did we go from looking like we had a decent shot at a modified arctic blast with possible snow, to now models backing away from the stronger cold push and arctic trough edging further east. A drier and slight warming trend.

00z GFS Day 2.5/4 AM Saturday (20-run trend)
You can see earlier runs we saw a favorable amplified blocking ridge with lower heights(blue shading) over British Columbia as the arctic trough dug further to the southwest. The block was a bit skinnier and base was centered further north with the cut-off low positioned under it. It was at one point forecast to be blocked all the way north of the pole into the high arctic with good tilt. *Note the 500mb contour lines bending around from the northeast over British Columbia and Alberta. This was a much better conduit for arctic air to be steered southward into our region. You can also see the arctic trough on some runs was phased better with the Hudson Bay vortex/trough. In this pattern the arctic trough would have continued moving southwest over our region and likely would have allowed for a surface low to develop just off the Washington Coast slowly sliding south and that may have resulted in a rather snowy situation.

Recently over the past 48 hours that pattern evolved differently with the cut-off low retrograding to the west now positioned to the southwest of the block, and then eventually along its western periphery. The ridge also began to de-amplify due to this and base of the block drifted further south. It also increased in width which shoved higher heights(red shading) towards the coast and over British Columbia edging the arctic trough further east. The tilted angle of ridge also no longer evident. *Note the 500mb contours now more aligned nearly north to south to pulling less arctic air southward. The arctic trough is still forecast to dig towards us, but due to it being positioned further east now it no longer digs far enough offshore to spin up a system nor pull arctic air westward.

A cold, arctic pattern is rarely if ever a lock at Day 6, 5, or even 4. *December 2008 was an extremely rare exception. If the models are in agreement showing arctic air diving southward and the trough digging favorably within 48-60 hours, then we can become confident with an arctic blast occurring and perhaps snow with the arctic front. This time it just didn't happen. Better luck in February!

[Gradient Keeper]

Night Shift 6z GFS Day 2 (4-run trend) Trough a notch west. Some indication it may try to do so. Cut-off low is pushing into the base of the block too which is slightly more amplified.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (4-run trend) Not much help. A slight notch west. Ridge is bit more amplified. I suppose if this trend continues the next 4-6 runs that might lead to a colder run and possible snow for some of us. Grasping at straws.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (4-run trend) and this run is toast. Oh, I'm sure Day 10+ might be interesting, but when isn't it.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The Weather Forums as the White Sox...

 

[Gradient Keeper]

19 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

The Weather Forums as the White Sox...

 

It's OVA!!!!! Nice to see the Indians again before people became a bunch of overly sensitive, offended, politically correct pussies.

12z GFS in 4 hours 47 minutes

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

It's OVA!!!!! Nice to see the Indians again before people became a bunch of overly sensitive, offended, politically correct pussies.

12z GFS in 4 hours 47 minutes

Meh, they could call them the Fuckfarts for all I care. The Indianapolis Colts franchise decided to stop calling themselves the Triangles after 1929.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We still kinda get there

I’m in the pepto!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well January gonna January.

[Meatyorologist]

Man this fell apart fast. Oh well. Onto mid Phebruary.

[Front Ranger]

7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm thinking this weekend / early next week won't be the main event of the last half of winter.  Good shot at seeing another blocking regime set up.  SSW will soon complete and then a good shot at either MJO 5 or 7 a bit down the road.

March Madness!

[TacomaWx]

Pretty much borderline non-event status. A couple 35/25 days with no snow. Sucks especially for Portland it looked like you guys atleast had a chance at snow. Never looked like we had a good shot at snow up here. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Pretty much borderline non-event status. A couple 35/25 days with no snow. Sucks especially for Portland it looked like you guys atleast had a chance at snow. Never looked like we had a good shot at snow up here. 

My biggest condolences are with MossMan.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Pretty much borderline non-event status. A couple 35/25 days with no snow. Sucks especially for Portland it looked like you guys atleast had a chance at snow. Never looked like we had a good shot at snow up here. 

Looks about right per the EPS.

[Phishy Wx]

Moderation cha cha cha Moderation cha cha cha

 

ehhh

[ShawniganLake]

28 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

March Madness!

CFS looks primed to drop the hammer at the end of February