PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[TacomaWx]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

PDX’s average high bumps up a degree the day after tomorrow (which has been on TV the last couple nights…).

It’s coming.  

I’ve already told my family it’s coming too. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I’ve already told my family it’s coming too. 

I used to record fake weather warnings and play them for my mom, I changed my voice and made it sound real. I would get crazy with the shitt like 2 feet of snow and 90mph winds. I wish i still had them becouse they sounded so real.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I used to record fake weather warnings and play them for my mom, I changed my voice and made it sound real. I would get crazy with the shitt like 2 feet of snow and 90mph winds. I wish i still had them becouse they sounded so real.

So funny yet so cruel

[Deweydog]

13 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I’ve already told my family it’s coming too. 

I was lamenting January’s impotency last night and my wife confidently claimed a snowy March is on its way. She didn’t seem too thrilled about it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looked up Phil's 1974-75, we had two big snow events up here in January that winter, probably not going to happen this year. 

[TacomaWx]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looked up Phil's 1974-75, we had two big snow events up here in January that winter, probably not going to happen this year. 

I’m starting to suspect the January curse will live on this year…hopefully Dewey’s right but we will see. If it lives on this year…I also get the feeling it’ll live on until 2025 or later. I don’t think the next 2-3 winters are going to be that great coming up. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

I’m starting to suspect the January curse will live on this year…hopefully Dewey’s right but we will see. If it lives on this year…I also get the feeling it’ll live on until 2025 or later. I don’t think the next 2-3 winters are going to be that great coming up. 

Wow. Phil canceled winter according to some. You just canceled the next 3. 

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow. Phil canceled winter according to some. You just canceled the next 3. 

maybe he meant for WWA. Oregon is due for a couple solo runs. WWA is due for some duds. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

maybe he meant for WWA. Oregon is due for a couple solo runs. WWA is due for some duds. 

I still contend 2020-21 counts as a dud, even for W. WA. 

[RentonHill]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I still contend 2020-21 counts as a dud, even for W. WA. 

true. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

26 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I was lamenting January’s impotency last night and my wife confidently claimed a snowy March is on its way. She didn’t seem too thrilled about it.

Experts argue January's impotency is due to climate change. What's the cure?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Experts argue January's impotency is due to climate change. What's the cure?

I keep seeing these ads pop up for HIMS, could help?

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow. Phil canceled winter according to some. You just canceled the next 3. 

Lol…not entirely canceling the next 3. I just think that in terms of climo we’re due for a step back towards normal…atleast here in the Puget sound. It’s been a historic run in recent years with significant winter events and eventually that run will relax a bit. I’m feeling pretty good about something good happening in the next few weeks still. 

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I still contend 2020-21 counts as a dud, even for W. WA. 

Short lived but were fun events! 

Edited January 5, 2023 by MossMan

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

maybe he meant for WWA. Oregon is due for a couple solo runs. WWA is due for some duds. 

Yeah that’s what I meant mostly. I try to follow everything that’s going on regionally but obviously I’m more focused on what happens in the Seattle area. I know Portland especially is due…they’ve just been in an unfortunate spot many times recently while areas to the north and even south a couple times did well. 

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s pretty amazing how great February has been in the 21st century with snow. Has vastly outperformed December and January…although December has been catching up in the last couple years. 
2006 3”

2009 2”

2011 7”

2014 2”

2017 5”

2018 3”

2019 22”

2020 0.5”

2021 15.5”

2022 0.3”

Did you have any in February 2007? 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Did you have any in February 2007? 

Did not have snow here in February 2007…January 2007 was pretty great though. 

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Did not have snow here in February 2007…January 2007 was pretty great though. 

January 2007 was lovely! That January list is fairly short with my memory of events. 
Bigger events that I remember are 

1996, 2007, 2012, and 2020. We have had many smaller events in my lifetime but I can’t specifically remember those dates. Early 80’s, Later 80’s, early 2000’s…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am hoping we see some cool/chilly weather towards the end of the month to help off set some of the intermittent torching we will see over the next 10-14 days. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

17 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Short lived but were fun events! 

Is that you?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

January 2007 was lovely! That January list is fairly short with my memory of events. 
Bigger events that I remember are 

1996, 2007, 2012, and 2020. We have had many smaller events in my lifetime but I can’t specifically remember those dates. Early 80’s, Later 80’s, early 2000’s…

January 2002 was not horrible. I'd imagine it was pretty decent up in your area. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am hoping we see some cool/chilly weather towards the end of the month to help off set some of the intermittent torching we will see over the next 10-14 days. 

A torchy 53 here after a low of 47. Feels like a 21st century January:( 

[BLI snowman]

It seems the early action/midwinter lull/late action is just sort of built into our climo now.

Makes it a pretty easy annual call and when you look at the next few weeks it lines up perfectly with that. Winter isn't over yet, but with nothing on the horizon it almost certainly means February 2023 will be what will supply it.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

January 2002 was not horrible. I'd imagine it was pretty decent up in your area. 

That was the year, thanks! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MossMan said:

That was the year, thanks! 

January 2002 ranks #5 all time for January snow at Silver Falls. Behind 1969, 1950, 2008, and 1971. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It seems the early action/midwinter lull/late action is just sort of built into our climo now.

Makes it a pretty easy annual call and when you look at the next few weeks it lines up perfectly with that. Winter isn't over yet, but with nothing on the horizon it almost certainly means February 2023 will be what will supply it.

It does seem that way, or even if we don't get any early action (Like 2019), we will get late action. Last winter taught me I can't issue a grade until about May 1st. 

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Is that you?

If it was February of about 1978 or 79 or so…Then yes! 

Edited January 5, 2023 by MossMan

[Front Ranger]

34 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I still contend 2020-21 counts as a dud, even for W. WA. 

HOT TAKE!

Also ridiculous, considering it delivered 10"+ to both SEA and PDX. That is not an easy feat, and yes, that's "all" it takes to make a winter decent in the PNW lowlands.

[Front Ranger]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

January 2002 was not horrible. I'd imagine it was pretty decent up in your area. 

Had about 5" in Tacoma that January, honestly the best winter month for us in the terrible 1999-2005 stretch outside of January 2004.

Feb 2001 and Dec 2005 both had an event that produced about the same amount of snow, but they were both over in a day, while January 2002 at least had a few small events over a 3-4 day period.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

HOT TAKE!

Also ridiculous, considering it delivered 10"+ to both SEA and PDX. That is not an easy feat, and yes, that's "all" it takes to make a winter decent in the PNW lowlands.

That winter was complete SHHIT outside of 3 days. 

But overall it's hard to make the case that outside of the Puget Sound region that the PNW has seen such an insane run of amazing winters that we will now pay with 2-3 years of crap. There is always the risk we have 2-3 years of crap winters (Or more.), but when looking regionally, there haven't been any winters since 2016-17 that stand out regionally, really one top tier month in February 2019, some nice late season events regionally, and some great cold snaps/snow in the Seattle area, where 90% of forum members are based, but regionally I don't feel this period comes close to 2007-2012. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Had about 5" in Tacoma that January, honestly the best winter month for us in the terrible 1999-2005 stretch outside of January 2004.

Feb 2001 and Dec 2005 both had an event that produced about the same amount of snow, but they were both over in a day, while January 2002 at least had a few small events over a 3-4 day period.

It snowed about 3" in Silverton on 1/27/02. It was our most significant snow between January 1996 and late December 2003. No joke. 

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

HOT TAKE!

Also ridiculous, considering it delivered 10"+ to both SEA and PDX. That is not an easy feat, and yes, that's "all" it takes to make a winter decent in the PNW lowlands.

This actually demonstrates just how decent the recent stretch of winters has been...there have been so few true duds, that now the goalposts for "dud" are being moved.

[Doinko]

15 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Then you compare December and January…

DEC           JAN

2008 16”   2007 3”

2013 2”     2011  1”

2016 2”     2012  10.5”

2017 2”    2020  1.5”

2020 TR.

2021 11”

2022 4”

Only notable amount of snow we've had in January was 14" in 2017. Dustings in 2020 and 2021. Probably a few inches in 2012, 2009, 2007 and maybe 12-14" in 2004 for this century.

 

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Had about 5" in Tacoma that January, honestly the best winter month for us in the terrible 1999-2005 stretch outside of January 2004.

Feb 2001 and Dec 2005 both had an event that produced about the same amount of snow, but they were both over in a day, while January 2002 at least had a few small events over a 3-4 day period.

I forgot about December 2005 in my list I made earlier…my stats I posted were based off of memory. I can’t remember the snow in December 2005 since I was only 6 at the time. 

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That winter was complete SHHIT outside of 3 days. 

Sure. But most Arctic outbreaks and snow events last 3 days or less. There are many winters on record that could not even produce that, and I would argue those are the true duds.

Again...you can't just brush aside the fact that the two major airports in the region got 10"+ that winter. It may have been brief - doesn't matter when we're comparing to the true historical duds that didn't come anywhere near that.

[MossMan]

Still looking good for a PNA droppage later in the month! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Sure. But most Arctic outbreaks and snow events last 3 days or less. There are many winters on record that could not even produce that, and I would argue those are the true duds.

Again...you can't just brush aside the fact that the two major airports in the region got 10"+ that winter. It may have been brief - doesn't matter when we're comparing to the true historical duds that didn't come anywhere near that.

Yes, I get that. It was not a 1991-92, 02-3, 14-15 type of trainwreck by any means. More of a 1997-98 type of winter. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Quote

4:36 AM PST Thursday 05 January 2023
Special weather statement in effect for:

• Metro Vancouver - central including the City of Vancouver Burnaby and New Westminster
• Metro Vancouver - North Shore including West Vancouver and North Vancouver
• Metro Vancouver - northeast including Coquitlam and Maple Ridge
• Metro Vancouver - southeast including Surrey and Langley
• Metro Vancouver - southwest including Richmond and Delta

Strong southeast winds are expected.

Time frame: This evening to near midnight.

Location: Metro Vancouver, mainly near the water.

Remarks: A low pressure system offshore will continue moving northwards today. Ahead of the low, strong southeast winds of 60 km/h gusting to 80 km/h will develop early this evening over Metro Vancouver regions near the Strait of Georgia. Winds will ease near midnight.

Damage to buildings, such as to roof shingles and windows, may occur. High winds may result in power outages and fallen tree branches.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to BCstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #BCStorm.

 

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Only notable amount of snow we've had in January was 14" in 2017. Dustings in 2020 and 2021. Probably a few inches in 2012, 2009, 2007 and maybe 12-14" in 2004 for this century.

 

January is basically March at this point in terms of average temp and snowfall. 

[Omegaraptor]

The best we can hope for in January is the 1981-2010 average.