PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[NWbyNW]

50F degrees here in Everett.  Some lights showers during the midmorning and around noon, but over wise, a nice day.  Cloudy, with some dark colored clouds towards the Cascades. Live view from moments ago, people are out and about on this Friday afternoon!!! 

 

[TacomaWx]

Another +50 high here today. 50/37 so far. 

[Seattle]

Past three days... Yikes.

53/36

57/46

52 (thus far)/41

 

[Meatyorologist]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

That is strange... but then you have to assume it was not unusual for people to be wandering around that house at night being that it was a party house.   At the time she probably never imagined her roommates were being murdered.    She might have been drunk or high and didn't want to deal with the police.  Of course in hindsight it now seems obvious and she will have to live with that for the rest of her life.

Completely agree. I probably would have done the same in that context, honestly. In a party house, some familiar dude there in the early morning. Wouldn't have thought much of it, especially if I were working on a joint at the time. Tragic.

[Meatyorologist]

OT convos are ok as long as they don't conflict with and suppress weather discussion

[RentonHill]

Vortex is going to set up right on top of us!!!! lock it in february MBG woo woooo!! train has left the station

[Deweydog]

Question is… did OJ do it?

[snow_wizard]

These have to be some of the straight up ugliest model runs I've seen in years.

[snow_wizard]

41 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Vortex is going to set up right on top of us!!!! lock it in february MBG woo woooo!! train has left the station

10mb level does not equal 500mb level.

[snow_wizard]

I guess I have to say as horrific as the current pattern is it makes something good seem kind of likely later on.  Just hope it isn't too late to preclude the chance of something big.

Meanwhile the chances are high of another terrible January ending up in the books.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

These have to be some of the straight up ugliest model runs I've seen in years.

Duuuuuude.   

You have been over-the-top excited about how frigid its been for the last 2 months.    You would think its been like the Yukon in Seattle.    Now we have the inevitable offset for a couple weeks and you are being over-the-top negative.   In reality its all just small variations in our maritime climate winter.    There will likely be more cold and snow coming.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

These have to be some of the straight up ugliest model runs I've seen in years.

Hmmm it’s like every January. 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Another +50 high here today. 50/37 so far. 

I'll be damned if the ECMWF wasn't right about dropping into the 30s last night.  A tiny win I guess.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll be damned if the ECMWF wasn't right about dropping into the 30s last night.  A tiny win I guess.

ECMWF also says lots of highs in the 50s ahead and it will probably be right on that as well.  

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Duuuuuude.   

You have been over-the-top excited about how frigid its been for the last 2 months.    You would think its been like Cut Bank Montana in Seattle.    Now we have the inevitable offset for a couple weeks and you are being over-the-top negative.   In reality its all just small variations in a maritime climate winter.    There will likely be more cold and snow coming.    

It appeared we had a realistic shot at a 1984-85 or 1992-93 type winter with consistent cold straight through.  Sure those winters had some minor / short mild periods.  Nothing like this though.

[Meatyorologist]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

These have to be some of the straight up ugliest model runs I've seen in years.

Weren't we literally posting June 2021 Euro 2mT graphs just this morning?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF also says lots of highs in the 50s ahead and it will probably be right on that as well.  

I'm well aware.  That's why I said the model runs are terrible today.  This pattern just keeps the atmosphere perpetually mixed.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Weren't we literally posting June 2021 Euro 2mT graphs just this morning?

I meant in the winter.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hmmm it’s like every January. 

If something doesn't change this could end up being uglier than any so far.

I think a fair number of people on here thought this January might at least end up ok.

[snow_wizard]

Talk about a good time to be living along the east slopes of the Cascades (Chelan, Douglas, and Okanogan Counties in particular) though.  Probably going to be some of the coldest weather in the country there due to cold air damming over the next week.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Talk about a good time to be living along the east slopes of the Cascades (Chelan, Douglas, and Okanogan Counties in particular) though.  Probably going to be some of the coldest weather in the country there due to cold air damming over the next week.

Doesn't sound too pleasant.   I will take our 40s and 50s.   

[Rubus Leucodermis]

28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

These have to be some of the straight up ugliest model runs I've seen in years.

Another batch of torch maps to post! Maybe there’s more 60-burgers on the horizon!

Not trying to troll. Well, I guess I am trying to troll… a little. Mostly I am trying to have fun no matter what the weather does. If it snows again, I’ll have fun with that, too.

[Deweydog]

35 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

These have to be some of the straight up ugliest model runs I've seen in years.

Really?

[Weiner Warrior]

So you guys are saying it's going to snow next week? 

[RentonHill]

55 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

10mb level does not equal 500mb level.

I thought my Thomas the tank engine gifs would have gotten the point across but I guess not 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

So you guys are saying it's going to snow next week? 

It sure is!

Just not in the western lowlands.

[snow_wizard]

19 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Really?

Just talking about my microclimate in specific, I guess.  Looks like nearly continuous endless pesky east winds and little chance of anything cold.

As an interesting aside...my cat hates wind and she was pretty distraught the other night.  Didn't want to go outside because of the wind and yet she won't use a litter box.  At least the coming wind will mostly be light enough to where that won't be a problem at least.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

High of 47.5°F here today. 50-burger denied. So sad.

[Deweydog]

On the “bright” side, today is the first day I’ve noticed the daylight lingering a bit longer… It IS coming.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just talking about my microclimate in specific, I guess.  Looks like nearly continuous endless pesky east winds and little chance of anything cold.

As an interesting aside...my cat hates wind and she was pretty distraught the other night.  Didn't want to go outside because of the wind and yet she won't use a litter box.  At least the coming wind will mostly be light enough to where that won't be a problem at least.

First World problems!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

56 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If something doesn't change this could end up being uglier than any so far.

I think a fair number of people on here thought this January might at least end up ok.

January 2018 and 19 were top 5 warm down here. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Evening torch watch: 12Z Euro moves next week’s best torching up a day from Friday to Thursday. (Temperatures stay remarkably the same.)

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

January 2018 and 19 were top 5 warm down here. 

2020 was also the second warmest on record here. 2021 was 6th

[snow_wizard]

I just have to figure out how to make peace with the fact we've lost another January.  Maybe it will still be an acceptable winter if February is good.  On the other hand it's really hard to have what I'd call a great winter without January participating.  Some recent winters have given it a good try I suppose.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

January 2018 and 19 were top 5 warm down here. 

It's been ugly.  For now we just have to figure warm Jan / hot summer every year until further notice.

[JW8]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I just have to figure out how to make peace with the fact we've lost another January.  Maybe it will still be an acceptable winter if February is good.  On the other hand it's really hard to have what I'd call a great winter without January participating.  Some recent winters have given it a good try I suppose.

Life sure is more enjoyable when you learn to quickly accept things you can't control. Easier said than done, I know...

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is about to rip the 10mb vortex in two at day 10.  Might be enough to reshuffle the deck.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, JW8 said:

Life sure is more enjoyable when you learn to quickly accept things you can't control. Easier said than done, I know...

Yup.

[Meatyorologist]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I just have to figure out how to make peace with the fact we've lost another January.  Maybe it will still be an acceptable winter if February is good.  On the other hand it's really hard to have what I'd call a great winter without January participating.  Some recent winters have given it a good try I suppose.

Last week or so of the month is up for grabs.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm well aware.  That's why I said the model runs are terrible today.  This pattern just keeps the atmosphere perpetually mixed.

Can’t seem to decouple here either. Skies are clear now but it doesn’t seem to be helping.

IMBY

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2023-01-6/2023-01-6/daily

[Doinko]

16 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Last week or so of the month is up for grabs.

Models look to bring the MJO to phase 2 from what I can tell late month/early Feb which is very cold for the west I think but I might be wrong

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

Can’t seem to decouple here either. Skies are clear now but it doesn’t seem to be helping.

IMBY

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2023-01-6/2023-01-6/daily

We got lucky this morning when it cleared and was able to calm down at the same time.  Dropped about 10 degrees in a couple of hours.  Won't be seeing much of that again anytime soon though.

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Models look to bring the MJO to phase 2 from what I can tell late month/early Feb which is very cold for the west I think but I might be wrong

2 is almost always troughy for us at least.  That gives us SSW and MJO as wild cards to mix things up.

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Just talking about my microclimate in specific, I guess.  Looks like nearly continuous endless pesky east winds and little chance of anything cold.

As an interesting aside...my cat hates wind and she was pretty distraught the other night.  Didn't want to go outside because of the wind and yet she won't use a litter box.  At least the coming wind will mostly be light enough to where that won't be a problem at least.

Does.... your house reek of cat piss?

[snow_wizard]

That is a good point about the MJO.  The 12z EPS showed a Western ridge developing at the end of the run, but that would have to be transitory with MJO 2.  Almost impossible for a Western Ridge to survive in that phase.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Does.... your house reek of cat piss?

No.  She must have eventually gone out.  I really felt bad for her, because you could see the internal struggle going on.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

23 minutes ago, Phil said:

Can’t seem to decouple here either. Skies are clear now but it doesn’t seem to be helping.

IMBY

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2023-01-6/2023-01-6/daily

Have you gotten any snow at all this season yet?

[KingstonWX]

Unsure if this has been posted here yet, but I saw it on Reddit and found it interesting...

"NOAA-19 weather satellite tipped over after a worker removed the bolts without proper documentation - repairs cost $135 million"

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This would have been cool to experience. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

16 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

Unsure if this has been posted here yet, but I saw it on Reddit and found it interesting...

"NOAA-19 weather satellite tipped over after a worker removed the bolts without proper documentation - repairs cost $135 million"

Jesus God how dumb can people be? Hmm let's remove the bolts and see why they are there!