PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

You be the judge. Doesn't seem like the best large-scale match to me. Even though December was certainly closer, December 2022 absolutely blew 2005 away for the NW third of the nation.

 

Second coldest Nov-Dec on record only after 1985 at Winthrop.

 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Long range GFS isn’t horrible. We have another week of this crap before the storm track consolidates a little more and is focused more on the PNW. 

Agreed.  Heights start coming up over the Pacific which results in gradual cooling.  Maybe the last half of the month won't be terrible.

[snow_wizard]

43 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Pretty morning at the property.  3 inches new lastnight.  31 degrees, very warm for January there. 20-25 is normal high there right now.

Do you know of a station that shows the normal high that low?  Not doubting it, but I would love to see the data.

[snow_wizard]

Speaking of cold in the northern third of Central and Eastern WA, I was surprised to find out there are a number of stations that are colder for January than many stations in Montana.  From what I've been able to gather the main reason for that is the Chinook winds that can give MT some ridiculous positive temp anoms for a few days in an otherwise very cold winter climate.  The northern part of WA east of the Cascades is extraordinarily good at holding onto cold.

One of the most impressive stats I could find for WA is the average low of 6.5 in January for Stockdill Ranch which has a period of record from 1909 through 1963.

[ShawniganLake]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Agreed.  Heights start coming up over the Pacific which results in gradual cooling.  Maybe the last half of the month won't be terrible.

Gonna turn stormy for awhile. Ridge pops up late January. Retrogrades in early February and gets colder. Take it to the bank. 

[snow_wizard]

48 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

If the CMC is even close to correct, CA is in trouble.

Even over just the next few days, the GFS shows a tremendous amount of precip for areas that are already nearing saturation.

Yeah....it's already saturated down there.  Anything from here will be big trouble.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Gonna turn stormy for awhile. Ridge pops up late January. Retrogrades in early February and gets colder. Take it to the bank. 

The only question to me is how fast we will get into something solidly cold.  Late this month is still on the table.  Getting it started in Jan would be a pretty big deal when looking at past history.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Meanwhile it's a raw 41 degrees with steady rain here.Feels cold out there.  

You should come in quite a bit lower than most places over the next week with the consistent offshore flow.  Still lame for January though.

[ShawniganLake]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Do you know of a station that shows the normal high that low?  Not doubting it, but I would love to see the data.

That would be pretty cold for being that far south.  Average high is 21F in Prince George right now.  25f at Clinton BC. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The only question to me is how fast we will get into something solidly cold.  Late this month is still on the table.  Getting it started in Jan would be a pretty big deal when looking at past history.

Yep... that is the only question.   Everything else is all locked down now.   

[The Cats Meow]

The last 10 days of January are going to be great.  The cool down will begin.........

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

That would be pretty cold for being that far south.  Average high is 21F in Prince George right now.  25f at Clinton BC. 

His place is at a pretty considerable elevation, but that can be a double edged sword given the propensity for inversionary cold over there.

[ShawniganLake]

Just now, Hour364Please said:

The last 10 days of January are going to be great.  The cool down will begin.........

It will probably cool down at the surface even if there is a ridge overhead. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS says we are going into the last part of January with a classic AL pattern developing.    Probably going to take until at least early February for a shake up.  

 

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

His place is at a pretty considerable elevation, but that can be a double edged sword given the propensity for inversionary cold over there.

Clinton’s weather station is 3700Ft. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

22 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Do you know of a station that shows the normal high that low?  Not doubting it, but I would love to see the data.

There is a station called lost lake 2 miles from our property.  Much of my statement is just from being up there ten tears. December through February 20-25 is a common high. We actually get a bunch of lows in the 0 to 10 range also.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS says we are going into the last part of January with a classic AL pattern developing.    Probably going to take until at least early February for a shake up.  

 

The good part of that is finally getting the trough consolidating over the NW Pacific.  That area of above normal would retrograde quickly if this verifies.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

His place is at a pretty considerable elevation, but that can be a double edged sword given the propensity for inversionary cold over there.

Surprisingly we get a bunch of freezing fog days there, even up to 5000ft. It looks cool because the trees are frosted heavy. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

There is a station called lost lake 2 miles from our property.  Much of my statement is just from being up there ten tears. December through February 20-25 is a common high. We actually get a bunch of lows in the 0 to 10 range also.

I'm sure that area has seen some effect of the recent January curse as well.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The good part of that is finally getting the trough consolidating over the NW Pacific.  That area of above normal would retrograde quickly if this verifies.

Early February at the earliest in my opinion... and then of course there are so many different ways that could play out.   Long wait ahead.   

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Surprisingly we get a bunch of freezing fog days there, even up to 5000ft. It looks cool because the trees are frosted heavy. 

That could explain it being so cold then.  Inversions still being able to develop even at fairly high elevation.  Areas around Cle Elum and Ellensburg don't see that.

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS says we are going into the last part of January with a classic AL pattern developing.    Probably going to take until at least early February for a shake up.  

 

Good for weakening the PV if nothing else. 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Good for weakening the PV if nothing else. 

Getting the trough pushed much further west over the Pacific is a huge step.  Where we are at now is a road to nowhere.

[snow_wizard]

Models continue to insist on a gigantic SSW during week two.  The ECMWF and GFS are about the same place in the process at day 10.  The GFS goes nuts with it after day 10.  A huge Siberian event.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That could explain it being so cold then.  Inversions still being able to develop even at fairly high elevation.  Areas around Cle Elum and Ellensburg don't see that.

I thought it was odd when I first got the Land and figured it was a rare thing but it happens a bunch there. 

[Deweydog]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Models continue to insist on a gigantic SSW during week two.  The ECMWF and GFS are about the same place in the process at day 10.  The GFS goes nuts with it after day 10.  A huge Siberian event.

I gave up on it after I realized I was getting too hung up on it.

[SnowWillarrive]

January is a lost cause around these parts. 

[gusky]

10 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

January is a lost cause around these parts. 

I said this right after January started in another chat and got some pushback. So far I don't think that's changed, there's just no favorable pattern for snow that I can see for January

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

January is a lost cause around these parts. 

Snow will NOT arrive with this kind of attitude.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m just missing Jesse s positivity!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

51F and cloudy. Very warm so far.

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

51F and cloudy. Very warm so far.

You might hit 90 today 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS says we are going into the last part of January with a classic AL pattern developing.    Probably going to take until at least early February for a shake up.  

 

Lot better than that 00z you were posting all over the place earlier .

[BLI snowman]

16 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

You might hit 90 today 

 

Edited January 7, 2023 by BLI snowman

[MossMan]

For me this time of the year I either want cold and dry, cold and snow, or sunny and warm. Days like this get to me anymore once we hit month number 1 in the winter season. Doesn’t bother me in October thru December. But the start of the new year on through into the spring I really dislike days like this. Especially if it drags on day after day. Luckily we have avoided that so far. January/February 2018 was awful for this until we had the greatness come in later in February. 
Currently 46 and wet. Damp. Cold…But not in a good way. Yuck. 

[Phil]

5 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

That’s what I suspected, based on reports of NYC and Boston (to your north, and snowier on average) getting almost nothing so far. I doubt you’ll go the whole winter without getting significantly more.

Easy to finish a winter with only ~ 4” total here. It’s always very feast or famine. But to my knowledge we’ve never had a truly “snowless” winter. At least not yet..I’m sure it’ll happen eventually.

Believe it or not this upcoming pattern is the best “snow” pattern we’ve had so far this winter, even though it’s a warmer one. Just need a low to track in right spot without occluding, and it’ll snow.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It must be my age but these cold damp days get to me now,  makes my body ache a little. Leaning over a car working for 35 years starts to accumulate lol. Must be the humidity but 41 degrees and rain feels way colder than a sunny 25 degrees day at my cabin.

To me dry cold has much more punch than wet cold. But maybe that’s because I’m more used to humidity.

[Phil]

It’s all uphill from here.  

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I just went grocery shopping and the lady of the house always does that. MY GOD food is expensive!! 30 bux a pound for king crab on sale!!! 15 bux a pound for a rib steak lol. Now I know why when I see the 400 dollar grocery bills on my credit card statement.  I'm out of the loop with grocery prices.  10 bux for a few apples hahaha.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I just went grocery shopping and the lady of the house always does that. MY GOD food is expensive!! 30 bux a pound for king crab on sale!!! 15 bux a pound for a rib steak lol. Now I know why when I see the 400 dollar grocery bills on my credit card statement.  I'm out of the loop with grocery prices.  10 bux for a few apples hahaha.

I mostly just eat ramen, beans etc. All I can afford.