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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


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OT but worth noting most bonafide niñas are almost always massive torches out here in February, so I’ve basically written that one off already for my backyard. It’s a consistent signal through all useful analogs.

Derive what you will from that re: most likely pattern.

Oh and I’m sure March will do the heavy lifting again. Just like last year, 2017/18, 2016/17, 2013/14, 2012/13, 2008/09, and so on.

Then comes the rapid transition to spring/summer. So depressing.

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not really bringing your fastball these days. 

I just took a zaleplon/clonazepam cocktail so I’m barely functional lol. And of course my first thought is to log into the weather forums and shītpost.

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Only bright side is the Hadley Cell system doesn’t look nearly as godawful as the last 2 years at this time. SW US should benefit with a weaker 4CH this year.

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  • Longtimer

That was a good run. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Staff

East wind is back and surprisingly strong this morning... 50 degrees in North Bend,

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Staff

06Z GEFS gets pretty close at the end of the run.   The 00Z EPS was the same previous runs and puts the ridge squarely over the west at the end of the run so it would be a slower process.    Early February is still my guess.

In the meantime... the 06Z EPS shows low 50s every day through the weekend so it will be a mild week.  

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-3244000 (1).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

53 in Stayton 🤮

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Me and Jim were talking about the area around my cabin and how we get a bunch of freezing fog even at 3800ft. Good example this morning,  24 degrees somehow with this torch airmass.

Screenshot_20230109_081136_Reolink.jpg

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

East wind is back and surprisingly strong this morning... 50 degrees in North Bend,

I thought the ridge blocked your location from east winds?

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14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Back in the states and home now. Iceland is a pretty incredible place. We happened to be there during an unusually cold and snowy period as well which added to the climate shock.

82A6F5E6-C485-417C-A0CD-62281D0EE216.jpeg

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9579E97E-E769-46FD-885B-11B163FB62E0.jpeg

Damn that’s true beauty. Maybe I should move there heh.

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13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Back in the states and home now. Iceland is a pretty incredible place. We happened to be there during an unusually cold and snowy period as well which added to the climate shock.

82A6F5E6-C485-417C-A0CD-62281D0EE216.jpeg

9035D9ED-D5E1-4F55-B20F-6AA40859EC24.jpeg

6876C0F9-F0CB-4DB6-92C0-C59E2BC694E6.jpeg

641E71B6-50F8-4D7E-ABD8-A03FBFD1935B.jpeg

81A6470E-5FF2-4F4F-A61B-B88464E5C21C.jpeg

8352F265-0825-447A-A5D4-C576D2527C08.jpeg

BA80D79B-E3D3-4C78-9C61-1EC523D33400.jpeg

AE1BDAC0-E4D0-4D29-A926-0F3BB9184AF7.jpeg

9FFA7D56-4C8D-4442-8B13-456E245A9D30.jpeg

B4490C88-C435-4F11-907A-4797058D788C.jpeg

9579E97E-E769-46FD-885B-11B163FB62E0.jpeg

That pic of the sun rising/setting behind the chunk of ice is pretty sweet.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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  • Longtimer
7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

That pic of the sun rising/setting behind the chunk of ice is pretty sweet.

The whole day is one continuous sunrise/sunset this time of year there. Sun peaks around 2-3 degrees above the horizon, and is only above it for about four and a half hours. Makes for great lighting all day, a photographers dream, even if all they have is a several generations out of date iPhone ;)

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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36 minutes ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

Pretty windy here. The power is flickering off and on the last 10 minutes.

Man the power grid(s) up there sound like an unmitigated disaster. Ours used to be shaky, but nothing like what is reported on this forum.

 

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  • Longtimer
Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Back in the states and home now. Iceland is a pretty incredible place. We happened to be there during an unusually cold and snowy period as well which added to the climate shock.

Beautiful shots!

How much daylight did they have while you were there?

Edit: NVM, see you ninja'd me!

Edited by BLI snowman
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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Beautiful shots!

How much daylight did they have while you were there?

Sun came up around 11:30am and was down by 3:30-4pm on the west side of the island, where we spent most the trip. One thing that surprised me is how long twilight lasted before and after sunrise/sunset. Easily a few hours where light was visible in the sky on either end, and an hour or more where it was light enough to see outside unaided.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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  • Staff
51 minutes ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

Pretty windy here. The power is flickering off and on the last 10 minutes.

Same here.    It seems to be more fragile after the ice storm and windstorm.    Every time the wind blows it starts flickering now.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Staff

The 12Z GFS looks very similar to what the EPS has been showing in the long range.    

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4432000.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-4432000 (1).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Staff

Lots of power outages this morning in south King County per the PSE map.     104 active outages with almost 20,000 customers impacted.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Man the power grid(s) up there sound like an unmitigated disaster. Ours used to be shaky, but nothing like what is reported on this forum.

 

Even here at most we've seen power flickering the past few years due to weather. Power was fine during the strong east wind last week. Last time we lost power was during the February 2021 ice storm and that was very brief. But on this forum it seems like people are losing power every other week, even in similar conditions

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  • Staff
6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Dead calm at home and 40 degrees. calm here at work and 44. 

Absolutely roaring here... shaking the house.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... 52 degrees at SEA with ESE 28G54 on the hour.  

That’s amazing. For comparison Everett literally recorded a 0 mph wind at the same time.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 82.5"

2022-23: 15"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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  • Longtimer

Gusty east winds and 48 degrees here. Had pouring rain at one point in the early morning hours. First time hearing rain outside in awhile, it was kind of nice. It only rained once in Iceland, there was a thaw day the day after New Years when it hit 37 in Reykjavik, which was the highest temp we saw the whole trip.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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  • Longtimer
4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Gusty east winds and 48 degrees here. Had pouring rain at one point in the early morning hours. First time hearing rain outside in awhile, it was kind of nice. It only rained once in Iceland, there was a thaw day the day after New Years when it hit 37 in Reykjavik, which was the highest temp we saw the whole trip.

How was the food there?

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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