PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Still not over my Buckeyes losing yesterday @TigerWoodsLibido

That was tragic. Such a winnable game and they flubbed it. Now we'll get yet another year with an SEC winner. Feels like this part of the country doesn't have much to play for in terms of college football anymore. One of the big reasons why I have increasingly liked college basketball.

[Slushy Inch]

Looks like chilly onshore flow.  Height anomalies are neutral over Alaska, so could trend in a better direction.

[Deweydog]

19 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1 down, 30 to go.

Freezes?

[snow_wizard]

Kind of looks like the models have latched onto a path other than retrogression to shut down the Pacific.  Looks like we may be there by mid month.

[Slushy Inch]

Colder in B.C in this run.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Looks like chilly onshore flow.  Height anomalies are neutral over Alaska, so could trend in a better direction.

A few ensemble members getting cold late in the run.  Nice to see things going the right way so quickly.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Kind of looks like the models have latched onto a path other than retrogression to shut down the Pacific.  Looks like we may be there by mid month.

Latched?

[snow_wizard]

22 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1 down, 30 to go.

Probably call it 2 unless something changes before midnight.  33 here so I think I'll get a 2 for the price of 1 as well.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

A few ensemble members getting cold late in the run.  Nice to see things going the right way so quickly.

It's at a point where a bit of a shift east and we get the sweet spot, plenty of time for that to happen.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

30.7, nice chilly start to the month. Wish it was going to stay this Kold. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Latched?

They seem to like the idea of that high moving off of Asia and eventually setting up shop over the Central / NE Pacific as a deep trough digs over the NW Pacific.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

It's at a point where a bit of a shift east and we get the sweet spot, plenty of time for that to happen.

For sure.  This is very early in the game still.

[Slushy Inch]

I think we are at the point where we might start to see good EPS runs.

[MossMan]

Down to 34. 
 

RIP Dori Monson. 

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Freezes?

February gonna be so Kold it will have 31 freezes.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

30.7, nice chilly start to the month. Wish it was going to stay this Kold. 

We should be good through the first 4 days.  We'll just have to wait and see how lucky or unlucky we end up for the 5 to 15 day period.  After that I think we'll do at least ok.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, MossMan said:

Down to 34. 
 

RIP Dori Monson. 

What?

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Down to 34. 
 

RIP Dori Monson. 

Sad.

[snow_wizard]

The station of the gods has a 45/28 going for the day.  Nippy start for January.

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

February gonna be so Kold it will have 31 freezes.

Uh 28?

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Sad.

What a shock.  I had no idea anything was even wrong with him.  I guess it was a heart attack.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Uh 28?

I think it was implying it will be SO KOLD that a few of the lows will count for 2 freezes.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I think it was implying it will be SO KOLD that a few of the lows will count for 2 freezes.

I realized that after the fact lol

[Requiem]

EURO still shows a strong push of easterlies as that low approaches. Still somewhat of a mountain wave signature to it I'd fathom-- strong winds from Enumclaw down to Ashland.

[Slushy Inch]

Already seeing the Pacific quite down a little at 180 hours, much faster than GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

They seem to like the idea of that high moving off of Asia and eventually setting up shop over the Central / NE Pacific as a deep trough digs over the NW Pacific.

Looking at the gfs long range ensemble the first run at it is a bit transitory. Then the real deal starts cooking.

[Slushy Inch]

Check out that jet extension over Asia.

[snow_wizard]

It appears the usual suspects for east winds will have a good blow centered around Wednesday, but just short of being a really serious event.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Check out that jet extension over Asia.

I think one of the NWS mets was pointing a similar episode out before the last cold wave.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at the gfs long range ensemble the first run at it is a bit transitory. Then the real deal starts cooking.

Looks kind of like a log jam scenario.

[Cold Snap]

Down to 33.3. Might have a shot at the 20s tonight.

[Slushy Inch]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think one of the NWS mets was pointing a similar episode out before the last cold wave.

Yes, I believe the idea is that a ridge forms where it ends. In that frame jet stream still makes it into the northeast Pacific.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Down to 33.3. Might have a shot at the 20s tonight.

Kind of nice to see January getting off on a cold foot.  It looks pretty chilly through Tuesday night at this point.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at the gfs long range ensemble the first run at it is a bit transitory. Then the real deal starts cooking.

The plan was for the real deal to begin in late Jan into early Feb.

[SouthHillFrosty]

@snow_wizard

 

 

[snow_wizard]

For those who want to see the SSW as it takes off this link is great for that.  The big one will be starting in a few days.

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

The plan was for the real deal to begin in late Jan into early Feb.

I think my Jan 18 to Jan 25 call is looking really good right now.

[snow_wizard]

Down to 31.8 now and everything is icing up.  

[Cold Snap]

Down to 32.1 now. That’s going to make for a freeze today and a freeze tomorrow!

[The Blob]

7 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

That year we got really low snow levels and did not reach 70 once in Downtown LA, but there were sunny days in between as no stupid inversion was able to form.

I remember it being pretty wet for us in Covina that year. If we went to the Costco in San Dimas it would easily be 15 degrees cooler. I guess being closer to the mountains helped with that.

[Slushy Inch]

Still can't put too much stock in EPS at this range. Look at the massive run to run change. Need to get higher heights in Alaska in future runs if we want progression like GEFS extended shows. In fact, the progression that keeps heights low in Alaska doesn't make much sense to me. 

[Slushy Inch]

Discounting CFS, doesn't match GEFS or EPS.

[Slushy Inch]

GEPS nearly matches GEFS. 

[Dave]

Please give me birthday snow. Right in the heart of winter, yet it has never happened other than a couple of flakes. Plenty of near misses. Jan 20th.

[Dave]

According to ACIS, which has admittedly garbage snowfall records for Eugene, it hasn't snowed here on Jan 20th since 1952 and only twice since 1893. We should change that. To me this is much worse than the terrible streak of no white Christmases. And I'm awake for no particular reason and grumpy.

Edited January 2 by Dave
grumpy

[TT-SEA]

Strange morning... the east wind has surfaced here and its 42 up here and 45 in North Bend but the frost that formed yesterday evening is still on my son's car in the driveway.     That must be the result of a low dewpoint.   It seems odd to me but it happens fairly frequently on the first night when offshore flow kicks in.

[AlTahoe]

6z Goofus was interesting.

 

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF showed this would be the coldest morning... and it did dip down to 30 briefly at SEA as it shows.    It also shows warmer than normal weather ahead.

 

[ShawniganLake]

6 hours ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Still can't put too much stock in EPS at this range. Look at the massive run to run change. Need to get higher heights in Alaska in future runs if we want progression like GEFS extended shows. In fact, the progression that keeps heights low in Alaska doesn't make much sense to me. 

If we do see the SSW event take shape, it generally leads to a pretty big atmospheric shake up.  Those long range ensembles will be less useful than usual 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z GFS was decent.