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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


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1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Still not over my Buckeyes losing yesterday🤮 @TigerWoodsLibido

That was tragic. Such a winnable game and they flubbed it. Now we'll get yet another year with an SEC winner. Feels like this part of the country doesn't have much to play for in terms of college football anymore. One of the big reasons why I have increasingly liked college basketball.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 31F (Dec 22, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 16F (Jan 30, 2023)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 60 (Most recent: Mar 27, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 30, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: 1.2"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: Mar 5, 2023
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: Mar 5, 2023
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Kind of looks like the models have latched onto a path other than retrogression to shut down the Pacific.  Looks like we may be there by mid month.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Looks like chilly onshore flow.  Height anomalies are neutral over Alaska, so could trend in a better direction.1673935200-mtNj6k3y9zA.png

A few ensemble members getting cold late in the run.  Nice to see things going the right way so quickly.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Kind of looks like the models have latched onto a path other than retrogression to shut down the Pacific.  Looks like we may be there by mid month.

Latched?

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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22 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1 down, 30 to go.

Probably call it 2 unless something changes before midnight.  33 here so I think I'll get a 2 for the price of 1 as well.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

A few ensemble members getting cold late in the run.  Nice to see things going the right way so quickly.

It's at a point where a bit of a shift east and we get the sweet spot, plenty of time for that to happen.

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30.7, nice chilly start to the month. Wish it was going to stay this Kold. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Latched?

They seem to like the idea of that high moving off of Asia and eventually setting up shop over the Central / NE Pacific as a deep trough digs over the NW Pacific.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

It's at a point where a bit of a shift east and we get the sweet spot, plenty of time for that to happen.

For sure.  This is very early in the game still.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

30.7, nice chilly start to the month. Wish it was going to stay this Kold. 

We should be good through the first 4 days.  We'll just have to wait and see how lucky or unlucky we end up for the 5 to 15 day period.  After that I think we'll do at least ok.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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Just now, MossMan said:

Down to 34. 
 

RIP Dori Monson. 

What?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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The station of the gods has a 45/28 going for the day.  Nippy start for January.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Sad.

What a shock.  I had no idea anything was even wrong with him.  I guess it was a heart attack.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Uh 28?

I think it was implying it will be SO KOLD that a few of the lows will count for 2 freezes.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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EURO still shows a strong push of easterlies as that low approaches. Still somewhat of a mountain wave signature to it I'd fathom-- strong winds from Enumclaw down to Ashland.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

They seem to like the idea of that high moving off of Asia and eventually setting up shop over the Central / NE Pacific as a deep trough digs over the NW Pacific.

Looking at the gfs long range ensemble the first run at it is a bit transitory. Then the real deal starts cooking.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It appears the usual suspects for east winds will have a good blow centered around Wednesday, but just short of being a really serious event.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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6 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Check out that jet extension over Asia.1673352000-JKqeaB3RiDs.png

I think one of the NWS mets was pointing a similar episode out before the last cold wave.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at the gfs long range ensemble the first run at it is a bit transitory. Then the real deal starts cooking.

Looks kind of like a log jam scenario.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think one of the NWS mets was pointing a similar episode out before the last cold wave.

Yes, I believe the idea is that a ridge forms where it ends. In that frame jet stream still makes it into the northeast Pacific.

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4 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Down to 33.3. Might have a shot at the 20s tonight.

Kind of nice to see January getting off on a cold foot.  It looks pretty chilly through Tuesday night at this point.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at the gfs long range ensemble the first run at it is a bit transitory. Then the real deal starts cooking.

The plan was for the real deal to begin in late Jan into early Feb.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 31F (Dec 22, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 16F (Jan 30, 2023)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 60 (Most recent: Mar 27, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 30, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: 1.2"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: Mar 5, 2023
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: Mar 5, 2023
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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For those who want to see the SSW as it takes off this link is great for that.  The big one will be starting in a few days.

temp10anim.gif

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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12 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

The plan was for the real deal to begin in late Jan into early Feb.

I think my Jan 18 to Jan 25 call is looking really good right now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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Down to 31.8 now and everything is icing up.  

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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7 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

That year we got really low snow levels and did not reach 70 once in Downtown LA, but there were sunny days in between as no stupid inversion was able to form.

I remember it being pretty wet for us in Covina that year. If we went to the Costco in San Dimas it would easily be 15 degrees cooler. I guess being closer to the mountains helped with that.

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Still can't put too much stock in EPS at this range. Look at the massive run to run change. Need to get higher heights in Alaska in future runs if we want progression like GEFS extended shows. In fact, the progression that keeps heights low in Alaska doesn't make much sense to me. 1673913600-V8mlanvqUro.png1673870400-jUMddVNYAfc.png

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According to ACIS, which has admittedly garbage snowfall records for Eugene, it hasn't snowed here on Jan 20th since 1952 and only twice since 1893. We should change that. To me this is much worse than the terrible streak of no white Christmases. And I'm awake for no particular reason and grumpy.

Edited by Dave
grumpy
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Strange morning... the east wind has surfaced here and its 42 up here and 45 in North Bend but the frost that formed yesterday evening is still on my son's car in the driveway.     That must be the result of a low dewpoint.   It seems odd to me but it happens fairly frequently on the first night when offshore flow kicks in.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00Z ECMWF showed this would be the coldest morning... and it did dip down to 30 briefly at SEA as it shows.    It also shows warmer than normal weather ahead.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-2617600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 hours ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Still can't put too much stock in EPS at this range. Look at the massive run to run change. Need to get higher heights in Alaska in future runs if we want progression like GEFS extended shows. In fact, the progression that keeps heights low in Alaska doesn't make much sense to me. 1673913600-V8mlanvqUro.png1673870400-jUMddVNYAfc.png

If we do see the SSW event take shape, it generally leads to a pretty big atmospheric shake up.  Those long range ensembles will be less useful than usual 

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06z GFS was decent. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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