PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Thanks for posting. Looks like that rigging at the end is already retrograding.

Its been incredibly consistent in the long range.   This must be an easier pattern to figure out.   

Also why I am saying early February.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Low 30's at my property.  But should still stay all snow there and keep piling up all week. Current view.

Must be high up

[Deweydog]

30 years ago right now it was starting to snow again!

[Anti Marine Layer]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Thanks for posting. Looks like that rigging at the end is already retrograding.

The climate is rigged.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

19 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Must be high up

3800ft

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its been incredibly consistent in the long range.   This must be an easier pattern to figure out.   

Also why I am saying early February.  

I'd say the general pattern begins to cool starting in about 10 days.  Early February would be great and much better than later in the month. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Great to have the CFS on board. 

That’s a terrible thing lol. Winter cancel now probably.

[TT-SEA]

Flow is more from the SW today as opposed to east yesterday... as a result its been raining lightly out here most of the day.   

[snow_wizard]

Looks to me like the EPS is close to doing a retrogression move at the end of the run.  Things are starting to fall into place.

[snow_wizard]

One thing that is interesting is a lot of control runs on the GEFS extended and the CFS have shown a very good pattern setting up in the very late Jan / early Feb time frame.  As I've mentioned with the CFS before you have to use a composite of multiple runs for it to mean much.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Flow is more from the SW today as opposed to east yesterday... as a result its been raining lightly out here most of the day.   

Pretty gross day out there.  At least it's fairly cool at only 45 here.  Surprisingly it has only hit 50 here twice this month.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty gross day out there.  At least it's fairly cool at only 45 here.  Surprisingly it has only hit 50 here twice this month.

Whether its 45 or 50 and raining is completely meaningless to me.   Less than meaningless.    

[Doinko]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Flow is more from the SW today as opposed to east yesterday... as a result its been raining lightly out here most of the day.   

Decent amount of sun breaks here right now just like yesterday. Saw a nice rainbow yesterday in the afternoon

[snow_wizard]

56 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Low 30's at my property.  But should still stay all snow there and keep piling up all week. Current view.

Definitely pushing it to the limit today with most stations around there at 33 or 34.  Definitely a very cold part of the state even in this bad pattern though.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Whether its 45 or 50 and raining is completely meaningless to me.   Less than meaningless.    

Just hoping we come up with something other than an obscene torch of a January for once.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just hoping we come up with something other than an obscene torch of a January for once.

Pretty meaningless.    We had tons of snow in January in my area as recently as 2020.     Decent chance we have nothing this January.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Definitely pushing it to the limit today with most stations around there at 33 or 34.  Definitely a very cold part of the state even in this bad pattern though.

Still snowing here.   Wet snow though and not adding up.  Actually wishing for a good rain before hopefully turning colder late in the month. 

I have had a little over 100 inches of snow since early November with very little melting.  And a good amount of freezing rain thrown in.  In fact I haven't had any actual plain old rain since either very early November or late October.  And even though building codes require roofs to be able to withstand very high snow loads, it's early January and I would like some snow off the roof in case we get a lot of snow later January and February. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty meaningless.    We had tons of snow in January in my area as recently as 2020.     Decent chance we have nothing this January.  

Yeah we had a lot of snow that month too, despite it being a total torch. I would gladly take a repeat this year, way too soon to write off snow at our locations this month. A lot of these GFS solutions would give us some snow. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah we had a lot of snow that month too, despite it being a total torch. I would gladly take a repeat this year, way too soon to write off snow at our locations this month. A lot of these GFS solutions would give us some snow. 

I agree its too early to write off snow at our locations... but not because of the goofy GFS.   Only because there is still 3 weeks left in the month.  

[FroYoBro]

Nice spring downpour right now. 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah we had a lot of snow that month too, despite it being a total torch. I would gladly take a repeat this year, way too soon to write off snow at our locations this month. A lot of these GFS solutions would give us some snow. 

I’ve been praying very very hard for this.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

53F and partly cloudy with an occasional shower.

[Deweydog]

The stratospheric outlook has certainly become a little less inspiring. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Our January has started like the Seahawks game. 

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Our January has started like the Seahawks game. 

Tie game?

[Deweydog]

Stormy out!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Tie game?

 

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Tie game?

Interception on the first play.

Edited January 8, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[BLI snowman]

43 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Nice spring downpour right now. 

Very spring-y day. No thunder yet but I bet the clouds were thinking about it at least.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Definitely pushing it to the limit today with most stations around there at 33 or 34.  Definitely a very cold part of the state even in this bad pattern though.

Yep this area and the Methow valley are the coldest spots.  My area mixes out faster but it's better for marginal snow level days like today just because of the elevation.  Just checked another station 1 mile from cabin and the everage temp last month came in at 14.7 degrees!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty meaningless.    We had tons of snow in January in my area as recently as 2020.     Decent chance we have nothing this January.  

I'd say the odds are better for you to get snow this month than not. Really the torch looks to end in about 10 days.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty gross day out there.  At least it's fairly cool at only 45 here.  Surprisingly it has only hit 50 here twice this month.

Finally stopped raining here for the first time since Friday morning! Still 43 degrees. 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yep this area and the Methow valley are the coldest spots.  My area mixes out faster but it's better for marginal snow level days like today just because of the elevation.  Just checked another station 1 mile from cabin and the everage temp last month came in at 14.7 degrees!

Our place has been at 33 for the last 24 hours. Recorded 0.1 of precip but looks like alL snow falling for now, but obvi not accumulating. Sounds similar to yours and @Brian_in_Leavenworth situation. We could really use some clear days to get some meltage if we’re not going to get rain. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Our place has been at 33 for the last 24 hours. Recorded 0.1 of precip but looks like alL snow falling for now, but obvi not accumulating. Sounds similar to yours and @Brian_in_Leavenworth situation. We could really use some clear days to get some meltage if we’re not going to get rain. 

Wet snow that is falling today over there is really rare, just don't happen much there. Looks like we have had about 2 inches today so far by looking at pics.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Wow, 12Z Euro has some truly quality torching on tap for southern Oregon late in the week.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Our place has been at 33 for the last 24 hours. Recorded 0.1 of precip but looks like alL snow falling for now, but obvi not accumulating. Sounds similar to yours and @Brian_in_Leavenworth situation. We could really use some clear days to get some meltage if we’re not going to get rain. 

The snow on the tracks is from the last 24hrs.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yep this area and the Methow valley are the coldest spots.  My area mixes out faster but it's better for marginal snow level days like today just because of the elevation.  Just checked another station 1 mile from cabin and the everage temp last month came in at 14.7 degrees!

That's pretty real in terms of cold.  I think the coldest places in the lower 48 have a monthly norm of about 5 in January, so this is up there with the big boys for December.

If it's low to mid 30s over there with this pattern I would think a normal max in the mid 20s doesn't seem out of whack at all for that area.  Very impressive.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The snow on the tracks is from the last 24hrs.

Definitely has that wet snow look to it.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Definitely has that wet snow look to it.

Exactly,  It looks like western Washington snow. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The snow on the tracks is from the last 24hrs.

Looks really soggy though.  It always amazes me how fast high quality snow turns into muck when the dp gets up to 32 or 33.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Wow, 12Z Euro has some truly quality torching on tap for southern Oregon late in the week.

High of 50 and 46 at SLE looks more like a cool down.