PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[snow_wizard]

I think this winter has dethroned the winter of 2005-06 here for east winds.  Even today had gusts to around 30.  The east wind has barely stopped since the pattern change and it's precluding any chance of sneaking in a cold night when it clears out.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Doinko said:

Well there's always our now yearly smoke events.

this will be what ultimately drives me back to the east coast.  Shiit is getting beyond old

[snow_wizard]

The GEFS does look pretty favorable for below normal temps for week two.  Better than nothing at least.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

this will be what ultimately drives me back to the east coast.  Shiit is getting beyond old

I just can't over the smoke being an annual thing now.  When I was younger, we never had forest fire smoke in this area.  We never even thought of it back then.

[Sandy rocks]

If you want to experience a gorgeous place, cold in the winter and pleasant in the summer, you should check out Wallowa Lake. It is somewhat remote but well worth it. I have gone several times in the summer but never in the winter. I do know it gets very cold there with more snow than most of eastern Oregon because it is at about 4000 feet. The mountains are stunning.

[snow_wizard]

I really don't care if people think I'm being a weenie or not.  January has become a suck azz month in this region.  I just hate it.

[Deweydog]

How you feelin’ about this January, Jim?

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

How you feelin’ about this January, Jim?

#$%F%$@SOB$%#@MF*)($#

[snow_wizard]

BTW I sure wish I could give some of this wind to people on here!  Another big blow coming tomorrow!

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW I sure wish I could give some of this wind to people on here!  Another big blow coming tomorrow!

[Sandy rocks]

I know I am being biased but the best water in the world is Bull Run used by Portland and most east Portland towns. It's so pure the Feds wanted to add chemicals and Portland has fought it. I don't know how that stands at the moment though. Comes from the foothills and runs downhill into town, totally works by gravity. Built in the 1880s.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Sandy rocks said:

I know I am being biased but the best water in the world is Bull Run used by Portland and most east Portland towns. It's so pure the Feds wanted to add chemicals and Portland has fought it. I don't know how that stands at the moment though. Comes from the foothills and runs downhill into town, totally works by gravity. Built in the 1880s.

There's a lesson in there somewhere.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I just can't over the smoke being an annual thing now.  When I was younger, we never had forest fire smoke in this area.  We never even thought of it back then.

It never happened is a fact.

 

 

[Deweydog]

I get a lot of snow removal videos in my TikTok feed.

[LowerGarfield]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It never happened is a fact.

 

 

Not even in CA. Never experienced anything like it until the last few years here 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

I get a lot of snow removal videos in my TikTok feed.

Certainly no need for that in the Western Lowlands in January any longer!

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

This January will go down as worse than 2006.

At least PDX has recorded a freeze and a couple sub-45 highs so far. Feats January 2006 failed to accomplish.

Edited January 11 by Cascadia_Wx

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

These rotten Januarys are just a drag.  Very difficult to have a really good winter when January refuses to participate.

Hmmmm...You must have missed the pamphlet I was handing out a few weeks ago about the explosive cooling our winters have seen compared to 20 years ago.

[Deweydog]

NAM is running.

[NWbyNW]

Things are wobbling over in Japan.  It's going to shift the jet stream that has been hitting California and aim it towards Oregon and Washington after this weekend.  Should be interesting if it will remain moist. 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Piggy back ridge makes an appearance on the EPS tonight.  Very important piece of the puzzle.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Piggy back ridge makes an appearance on the EPS tonight.  Very important piece of the puzzle.

[WeatherGeek2022]

41 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Things are wobbling over in Japan.  It's going to shift the jet stream that has been hitting California and aim it towards Oregon and Washington after this weekend.  Should be interesting if it will remain moist. 

 

 

give us the goodz

[SouthHillFrosty]

06z is running!!! Game changing run?

Edited January 11 by SouthHillFrosty

[TigerWoodsLibido]

46F and mostly cloudy. Been a pleasant but warm stretch. Cherishing these days where we don't get to 90F+ regularly like what awaits us from Jun-Oct.

[TT-SEA]

Some light rain and 47 this morning... so much for last night being clear and frosty.

Supposedly going to be dry during the daylight hours today.

[TT-SEA]

7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I really don't care if people think I'm being a weenie or not.  January has become a suck azz month in this region.  I just hate it.

There will be some snow in your backyard in February and you will completely forget about this warm period and this will once again be the most amazing winter ever.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z was pretty decent. 

[TacomaWx]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

There will be some snow in your backyard in February and you will completely forget about this warm period and this will once again be the most amazing winter ever.

There’s been plenty of very good winters that involved 0 action from January that he’s happy with. I get that historically Januarys good but if we still end up with 3 rounds of snow and cold this winter then who cares? 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

There’s been plenty of very good winters that involved 0 action from January that he’s happy with. I get that historically Januarys good but if we still end up with 3 rounds of snow and cold this winter then who cares? 

Heck... even a couple GFS runs that show lots of snow at 300 hours will get him back to saying this winter is amazing and every winter just keeps getting colder.   His despair is very temporary.    Unbridled excitement always comes back quickly.  

[Ferndale_man]

8 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It never happened is a fact.

 

 

Only smoke we had was slash burns as a kid when the winds shifted. Then those stopped in the late 80s I believe.  It getting beyond ridiculous to have smoke every year.  We even get it over  here in the Midwest from the west. 

[TT-SEA]

I see the moon is shining now... rain is lifting north.   

Should be into the mid 50s again today per the ECMWF.

[AlTahoe]

Work parking lot snow berm is getting intimidating! 

[TT-SEA]

8 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It never happened is a fact.

 

 

In its natural state... western fires and smoke were much worse than what we see today.    Its not even close.    

We decided in the 1940s to go full board on fire suppression and that worked well for about 60 years.   But you can only hold back nature so long and now we have a massive fire deficit to pay back.    And a warming climate is accelerating that payback.  The absolute worst fire years now pale in comparison to acreage burned before we started messing with nature.

In other words... what you and others remember from childhood was unfortunately never going to be sustainable.  

[SnowWillarrive]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In its natural state... western fires and smoke were much worse than what we see today.    Its not even close.    

We decided in the 1940s to go full board on fire suppression and that worked well for about 60 years.   But you can only hold back nature so long and now we have a massive fire deficit to pay back.    And a warming climate is accelerating that payback.  The absolute worst fire years now pale in comparison to acreage burned before we started messing with nature.

In other words... what you and others remember from childhood was unfortunately never going to be sustainable.  

100+ years ago fires were much worse. People today would think it was the apocalypse. 

[Tyler Mode]

I shoulda went somewhere this morning...nice sunrise complete with a rainbow.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

I shoulda went somewhere this morning...nice sunrise complete with a rainbow.

Second morning in a row here with rain ending just before dawn and clearing skies as the sun comes up.    Good timing. 

[MossMan]

43 degrees. Wet deck.

.01” on the day. .96” for the month. 

[Phishy Wx]

surprise bonus snow this morning.  was suppose to be rain or mixed

 

about 1/4" still dumping

 

winter just letting us know its still winter

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a bad Gfs run.

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not a bad Gfs run.

Jim's piggy back ridge... @snow_wizard dont lose hope my man!!

 

[Doinko]

Chilly pattern toward the end on the 12z GFS

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, AlTahoe said:

Work parking lot snow berm is getting intimidating! 

You should share that snow berm picture with the dog on this site that you posted on WW. Almost looked like Moss Man's house.

[joelgombiner]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

In its natural state... western fires and smoke were much worse than what we see today.    Its not even close.    

We decided in the 1940s to go full board on fire suppression and that worked well for about 60 years.   But you can only hold back nature so long and now we have a massive fire deficit to pay back.    And a warming climate is accelerating that payback.  The absolute worst fire years now pale in comparison to acreage burned before we started messing with nature.

In other words... what you and others remember from childhood was unfortunately never going to be sustainable.  

I hope Cliff Mass and the Seattle Times read this the next time they try to write about wildfires. Great explanation that incorporates multiple causes. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

It’s coming.

#colderJanuarythan2022

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

9 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

You should share that snow berm picture with the dog on this site that you posted on WW. Almost looked like Moss Man's house.

Moss Man doesn't get berms like that, at least not from street plowing.   I do, though, and it makes getting in and out of your driveway a real challenge.  The driveway gets narrower and narrower, and you can't see into the street that you are backing into. 

Shoveling and snowblowing becomes a challenge when you have to throw the snow over a 7-10 foot berm.  And if you don't get it over, it just slides right down to where it was.

So far about 100 inches of snow this winter with 3 to 5 more coming.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

13 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

I hope Cliff Mass and the Seattle Times read this the next time they try to write about wildfires. Great explanation that incorporates multiple causes. 

He already has written about it

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/09/wildfires-are-old-normal-for-pacific.html?m=1

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Cliff says La Nina is about done...

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/01/la-ninas-days-are-numbered.html

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty good GFS run. 

[joelgombiner]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

He already has written about it

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/09/wildfires-are-old-normal-for-pacific.html?m=1

 

 

He downplays the global warming effect with no evidence. Formal attribution studies have been done on this showing that global warming is an important factor, along with human activity, ecology, and forest management. Cliff uses anecdotes and hand-waving to make his points. That's fine for a blog, a forum chat or a bar.