PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[snow_wizard]

That is one Oooglay torch east of the Rockies.  Believe it or not the number 2 analog on this is from late January 1955.  It got kind of cold here after that.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That is one Oooglay torch east of the Rockies.  Believe it or not the number 2 analog on this is from late January 1955.  It got kind of cold here after that.

Has there ever been a month you don't compare to 1955?    Even in the middle of last summer you were talking about 1955 similarities.   

 

[Deweydog]

22 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Can’t be wrong if you pick both months 

Ohhhh, yes I can young man…

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It would be incredible to have another even colder airmass make it's way into the lower 48. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Ohhhh, yes I can young man…

You need to predict an entirely above freezing February.   #90freeJuly.  

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

You need to predict an entirely above freezing February.   #90freeJuly.  

One way or another it will get cold in February. At night.

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Hard to dislodge it without an SSW. But Feb 2021 was preceded by extreme cold in Asia.

Remember when models showed the Arctic air going to CA instead of TX?

The models are trying really hard to get an SSW going.  We'll have to see if it happens or not.  At any rate there is a bunch of cold to work with going forward.  It will move at some point.

[MossMan]

Is there anyone that is NOT onboard for February? 

[Phishy Wx]

as stuck in patterns as things have gotten this year would not surprise me at all if Feb doesn't end up historic

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Has there ever been a month you don't compare to 1955?    Even in the middle of last summer you were talking about 1955 similarities.   

 

Just stating what the analog was.  It is odd we have seen that one come up so many times over the past year.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Just stating what the analog was.  It is odd we have seen that one come up so many times over the past year.

Pretty much meaningless it appears.   

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

as stuck in patterns as things have gotten this year would not surprise me at all if Feb doesn't end up historic

The pattern is going to change from where we are at fairly soon though.  Even early in week two is a pretty big change from this.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Pretty much meaningless it appears.   

We did have a bunch of cold in April, November, and December though.  It's kind of happening at times.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wouldn’t mind a January 1955 progression on into spring. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We did have a bunch of cold in April, November, and December though.  It's kind of happening at times.

I don't think this November was in the same universe as November 1955.  

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Is there anyone that is NOT onboard for February? 

2006

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The models are trying really hard to get an SSW going.  We'll have to see if it happens or not.  At any rate there is a bunch of cold to work with going forward.  It will move at some point.

Signs were considerably better a week ago according to my untrained eye.

[Doinko]

14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Is there anyone that is NOT onboard for February? 

It's coming

[TacomaWx]

33 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Ohhhh, yes I can young man…

24 in March! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Crazy heavy rain now. Good lord

[oceanmom]

3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I thought I saw that PDX reported thunder today. Heard some distant thunder here a little after noon.

Wind never switched to southerly here so ended up with a cooler day than PDX. 49/39 spread.

 

Very loud crack of thunder here at about 12:20 in north Vancouver. Two strikes on the lightning map both just south of where I-5 and 205 come back together, one just east of Klineline Pond and the other about 1/2 mile south of there.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Hour 492, which is early Jan. 29th

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Beautiful 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1/2 inch of rain here since 6pm.

[bainbridgekid]

Lots of heavy rain out there this evening. Kind of an unusual look to the radar with such a large area of heavy rain with almost no rain around it. 
 

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Had a comical conversation with a colleague down in the LA area this morning.  The freeway reader boards were telling people to stay off the roads (I think the timing was 4pm today to 4pm tomorrow) because the were expecting 1/2" of rain.

I laughed and said "that's just a Tuesday for us." 

My manager lives in Orange county and said he was coming home from San Diego during one of the recent big rain events, and being from the Midwest is used to heavy rain.  He was trucking along at a respectable speed and said there were a lot of people driving down the freeway going 35-40 with their hazards on.

 

Yeah, I know, that's a lot for them, but still.

On the flip side, I was talking to my Sales guy who lives on the west side of Minneapolis late last week, and he was having

to take Friday off to deal with all the snow they had.  He had run his snowblower 5 times between Wednesday and Thursday, had 5+ft tall snow berms around his house, and needed to get the snow off his roof to minimize the risk of ice dams.

Its been a rather breezy but otherwise boring couple of days up here in my neck of the woods.  I haven't kept up on the forum, from the skimming I have done am I seeing that February is going to happen?  I think I'm supposed to go to LA for a sales meeting in Feb....Does Tim have any trips planned to Hawaii or Arizona during that time?  If so, I would say we can lock it in boys and girls!

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

59 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Is there anyone that is NOT onboard for February? 

March

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I think I'm supposed to go to LA for a sales meeting in Feb....Does Tim have any trips planned to Hawaii or Arizona during that time?  If so, I would say we can lock it in boys and girls!

 

As mentioned a couple days ago when someone else asked... Maui in first half of February.    Its definitely coming!  

[joelgombiner]

Looks like the east winds have been producing some orographic enhancement on the eastern slopes of the Olympics.  Some areas over 2 inches in the last 24 hours. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Looks like the east winds have been producing some orographic enhancement on the eastern slopes of the Olympics.  Some areas over 2 inches in the last 24 hours. 

Just about 2 inches here in last 24 hrs. It's been non stop.

[Deweydog]

Definitely one of those times when you’d like the models to just initialize at 496 hours.

[MossMan]

19 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Just about 2 inches here in last 24 hrs. It's been non stop.

Meanwhile I am still under an inch for the month. 

[TacomaWx]

12 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Yeah, those silly Southern Californians! They don't know what real rain is!

The last 24 hours around the Santa Barbara area:

To be fair to people in California…totals like this would cause some problems up here for sure. They are experiencing something well outside of climo norms. It is comical seeing Californians freak out over rain though. Imagine if everything shut down for rain up here lol

[NWbyNW]

Absolutely pouring here.  Coming down fast and furious.

Looking at radar, some impressive heavy spots especially east of the Olympics, then onward to Seattle.  No rainshadow today!

This heaviest bit is now over Snohomish and King Counties! 

 

[NWbyNW]

21 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Yeah, those silly Southern Californians! They don't know what real rain is!

The last 24 hours around the Santa Barbara area:

Here's a tiny bit bigger map.  Some of the totals are crazy for a 24hr period.

[MossMan]

Fun! 

 

[MossMan]

Dumpage! 

[Dan the Weatherman]

19 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

To be fair to people in California…totals like this would cause some problems up here for sure. They are experiencing something well outside of climo norms. It is comical seeing Californians freak out over rain though. Imagine if everything shut down for rain up here lol

It has been a while since parts of Socal have received a soaking like this. This does happen on occasion, but in this case it is much-needed due to the drought conditions that have plagued the region off and on over the past decade, even though it has been a little too much in a very short time. Hopefully we continue to get storms for the rest of the season, but it would be nice to get some with lower snow levels so the mountain snowpack can be built up.

I will admit that this pattern has been feeling very El Nino-like recently, despite still being in a La Nina, albeit a weakening one, and I have noticed that was mentioned on here recently as well.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Dan the Weatherman

[joelgombiner]

Today in Santa Barbara, scenes of dumpsters floating down the street. Memeable, but also a terrible disaster for some people. They are seeing record flood stages on some rivers, and there are severe mudslides occurring in steep, burned mountain slopes, some of which have received over 10 inches of rain. They are issuing mandatory evacuation orders for many areas due to the imminent mudslide danger. 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Eujunga said:

Yeah, those silly Southern Californians! They don't know what real rain is!

The last 24 hours around the Santa Barbara area:

Might not even get one inch here in Orange County.