PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Deweydog]

57 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Dumpage! 

Pot pie will do that to you…

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Pot pie will do that to you…

So will diarrhea 

[snow_wizard]

One thing I'm not sure of is whether an SSW over Siberia is good enough to shake up the pattern without it completely knocking the vortex off of the pole.  Just wondering since that is what the GFS in particular has been showing.

[snow_wizard]

35 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Today in Santa Barbara, scenes of dumpsters floating down the street. Memeable, but also a terrible disaster for some people. They are seeing record flood stages on some rivers, and there are severe mudslides occurring in steep, burned mountain slopes, some of which have received over 10 inches of rain. They are issuing mandatory evacuation orders for many areas due to the imminent mudslide danger. 

 

I hope we see the drought monitor change after this.  Pretty hard to imagine it not making a serious dent!

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing I'm not sure of is whether an SSW over Siberia is good enough to shake up the pattern without it completely knocking the vortex off of the pole.  Just wondering since that is what the GFS in particular has been showing.

You seem kinda hung up, Jim…

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Dan the Weatherman said:

It has been a while since parts of Socal have received a soaking like this. This does happen on occasion, but in this case it is much-needed due to the drought conditions that have plagued the region off and on over the past decade, even though it has been a little too much in a very short time. Hopefully we continue to get storms for the rest of the season, but it would be nice to get some with lower snow levels so the mountain snowpack can be built up.

I will admit that this pattern has been feeling very El Nino-like recently, despite still being in a La Nina, albeit a weakening one, and I have noticed that was mentioned on here recently as well.

The Nina isn't really weakening yet either.  It will reassert itself on the mid latitude pattern soon.

[Chewbacca Defense]

43 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Today in Santa Barbara, scenes of dumpsters floating down the street. Memeable, but also a terrible disaster for some people. They are seeing record flood stages on some rivers, and there are severe mudslides occurring in steep, burned mountain slopes, some of which have received over 10 inches of rain. They are issuing mandatory evacuation orders for many areas due to the imminent mudslide danger. 

 

 

Not gonna lie, I'm kinda disappointed that dumpster floating down the street didn't have flames coming out of it.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Just about 2 inches here in last 24 hrs. It's been non stop.

The price you pay for the slightly cooler max temps. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

 

Not gonna lie, I'm kinda disappointed that dumpster floating down the street didn't have flames coming out of it.

That would add a little something alright.

[WeatherGeek2022]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

Is there anyone that is NOT onboard for February? 

just gonna take winter as it comes at this point.

 

if we end up not getting any snow at all next month can't really say it was entirely unexpected.

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

To be fair to people in California…totals like this would cause some problems up here for sure. They are experiencing something well outside of climo norms. It is comical seeing Californians freak out over rain though. Imagine if everything shut down for rain up here lol

I have seen the photos and videos of the creeks rapidly rising. Places like the Central Coast are getting hit really hard but outside of flooding, just drive carefully and don't use cruise.

Kind of jealous of my parents getting 3 inches from after 6pm yesterday to 7pm tonight. I don't remember any cancellations in Norcal due to rain but if there are evacuations it is due to rapid creek rides and burn scars.

[Phil]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Has there ever been a month you don't compare to 1955?    Even in the middle of last summer you were talking about 1955 similarities.   

 

1950s are dead and gone as cold season analogs. Interdecadal mode(s) of tropical warm pools/z-cells so different today.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

just gonna take winter as it comes at this point.

 

if we end up not getting any snow at all next month can't really say it was entirely unexpected.

Most of the pros are pretty bullish for us for the second half of winter.

[snow_wizard]

A total of 7 days where east winds have hit at least 33 mph here so far this season.  That's got to be up there for the most in a season since I've lived here.  Also a few strong S to SW wind days thrown in as well.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

36F and mostly clear. Nice night. Hope everyone is doing ok.

[TT-SEA]

5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Most of the pros are pretty bullish for us for the second half of winter.

Second half of winter starts later this week!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

30 at EUG

[TT-SEA]

46 at SEA and 44 in North Bend... it was just raining but the rain on the radar has just disappeared over the last 30 minutes and it should be a nice day.     Rain returns tomorrow evening.   

[TT-SEA]

This pattern is challenging that notion that when CA is being pounded by the jet stream its usually cold and snowy up here north of the main action.   

ECMWF says that Seattle and Portland will have pretty much the same temperatures as SoCal tomorrow.

[Meatyorologist]

Pretty nice convective squall yesterday. Came with torrential rain, small hail, and breezy weather. Apparently there was some thunder out of this around 20-30 miles after it passed overhead.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This pattern is challenging that notion that when CA is being pounded by the jet stream its usually cold and snowy up here north of the main action.   

ECMWF says that Seattle and Portland will have pretty much the same temperatures as SoCal tomorrow.

January 1995 was wet down there and pretty mild up here if I recall. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

January 1995 was wet down there and pretty mild up here if I recall. 

January - May of 1995 was very wet in SoCal.  

[AlTahoe]

9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing I'm not sure of is whether an SSW over Siberia is good enough to shake up the pattern without it completely knocking the vortex off of the pole.  Just wondering since that is what the GFS in particular has been showing.

Temps in Siberia are currently -80F with -90's in the forecast! 

[LowerGarfield]

1995 was a wet year in CA. 

As for here we had our first actual frost in a week or two. It's 32F and a light frost on the grass. I'd better get some coffee and scrape the car soon.

[AlTahoe]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

January 1995 was wet down there and pretty mild up here if I recall. 

Yep this winter matches up pretty well with 1994-1995 down here. That winter featured a 4 week dry spell in Feb before it came roaring back in March with massive snowfall here. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

1995 was a wet year in CA. 

As for here we had our first actual frost in a week or two. It's 32F and a light frost on the grass. I'd better get some coffee and scrape the car soon.

Remote start on a vehicle is a wonderful thing! My last two trucks have had it so it’s been a while since I have used the scraper. Used the brush portion of my scraper to sweep the snow off though…Nothing worse than opening your door and having a bunch of snow drop onto your seat. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Managed to get to 34 last night. 

[TT-SEA]

I am noticing the grass starting to look a little greener around here now.    It was dead brown everywhere up here in late October when the rains finally came and never greened up... and was still dead brown when the snow melted after Christmas.   But this warm pattern and lack of frosty nights appears to be allowing for some new growth to start.    

Snow in February usually doesn't usually force things back into dormancy as long as it doesn't get too cold... but extended cold and lots of below freezing nights will do that and then it has to start over again in March.

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Managed a nice frost with 32 this morning and clear skies.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Few inches of snow lastnight at property. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Starting to look like an all time warm January is well within our grasp.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I hear ELLEN says we need to be nicer to mother nature because the creek in her backyard is flooding. 

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful morning... and the grass is definitely looking a little greener than it was even last week. 

[Phishy Wx]

26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Starting to look like an all time warm January is well within our grasp.

 > All time cold Feb, book it!

[joelgombiner]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I hear ELLEN says we need to be nicer to mother nature because the creek in her backyard is flooding. 

Wasn't she fired for being mean to people? 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Beautiful morning... and the grass is definitely looking a little greener than it was even last week. 

Or maybe it is cleaner and looks greener? It gets dirty from the plows and stuff.

[joelgombiner]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I am noticing the grass starting to look a little greener around here now.    It was dead brown everywhere up here in late October when the rains finally came and never greened up... and was still dead brown when the snow melted after Christmas.   But this warm pattern and lack of frosty nights appears to be allowing for some new growth to start.    

Snow in February usually doesn't usually force things back into dormancy as long as it doesn't get too cold... but extended cold and lots of below freezing nights will do that and then it has to start over again in March.

 

Things are definitely starting to wake up. My daikon radishes (planted in late August) are putting on a lot of new growth! 

[Meatyorologist]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Beautiful morning... and the grass is definitely looking a little greener than it was even last week. 

This is daffodil subposting

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

This is daffodil subposting

The Tim autobot is posting the same thing he posts every January. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Or maybe it is cleaner and looks greener? It gets dirty from the plows and stuff.

That might be part of it... but even our lawn which never had sand or dirt from the plows is showing signs of greening up.   Its pretty common for the grass to be fairly green in the winter around here when we have a long period of warm/wet weather.   What is unusual this year was that it went into the rainy season completely dead brown as I gave up watering in the fall... so I have not seen signs of greening up for a long time.