PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Hour364Please]

Got my outside Christmas lights and decorations down.

Nice day so far.  No rain.

46 here.

[snow_wizard]

The models are having serious trouble making up their minds whether the high latitude heights will be above or below normal as we get into the middle third of the month.  That ends up having big implications on how the pattern evolves after day 10.  The SSW can't hurt in that regard.

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I think its more related to blocky extremes.   We just had near record-setting cold spread across the US.   

Watch out for summer 2023.   

We’ll look back at this next summer and glad this happened. 

[snow_wizard]

At this point the ECMWF has been slowly taming down the winds expected with the east wind event centered around Wednesday.  My guess is places that are having east winds today will be about 50% stronger winds on Wednesday than today.  An exception may be North Bend which had some pretty strong gusts today.  I think places more like here and Enumclaw will be the ones to see the stronger winds on Wednesday.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

We’ll look back at this next summer and glad this happened. 

The million dollar question is whether or not the big rains in CA this winter indicate we have gone through a major regime shift.  If so, next summer may be a lot different than recent ones.  Still a good chance that won't be the case though.

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The models are having serious trouble making up their minds whether the high latitude heights will be above or below normal as we get into the middle third of the month.  That ends up having big implications on how the pattern evolves after day 10.  The SSW can't hurt in that regard.

Unlatched

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Unlatched

I was just going to mention this... yesterday it was latched down and settled.   How could it be totally up in the air now?   

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Unlatched

I knew you were going to say something.  Didn't waste much time either!

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was just going to mention this... yesterday it was latched down and settled.   How could it be totally up in the air now?   

Some aspects are staying pretty consistent such as the high moving off of Asia that ends up amplifying over the Pacific.  The details are widely varied though.

[Doinko]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The million dollar question is whether or not the big rains in CA this winter indicate we have gone through a major regime shift.  If so, next summer may be a lot different than recent ones.  Still a good chance that won't be the case though.

2016/17 was very wet in CA and we torched that summer like usual

[Requiem]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

At this point the ECMWF has been slowly taming down the winds expected with the east wind event centered around Wednesday.  My guess is places that are having east winds today will be about 50% stronger winds on Wednesday than today.  An exception may be North Bend which had some pretty strong gusts today.  I think places more like here and Enumclaw will be the ones to see the stronger winds on Wednesday.

Eh-- looks basically unchanged down here the past few days. Should be a purely downslope event with some decent upper level support.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I knew you were going to say something.  Didn't waste much time either!

Looks like a nino-esque hodgepodge until further notice to me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Got very foggy all of a sudden. 

 

Edited January 2 by SilverFallsAndrew

[MossMan]

Made it out to Lake Goodwin for the first time since October…The water level is slightly higher than the last time I was here. Forgot to put my fishing boat up on the concrete, oops. Seems okay and will deal with it in the spring. Nice day! 

Edited January 2 by MossMan

[Timmy]

The uncle is doing uncle things for the all the Cali uncles.

 

 

here is the heaviest 24 hr snowfall…

Edited January 2 by Timmy

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS was really wet for CA over the next 15 days... and a little drier than normal up here. 

[Timmy]

Just now, Timmy said:

The uncle is doing uncle things for the all the Cali uncles.

Just a casual 17 feet of snow over the next 2 weeks.

[TT-SEA]

@hawkstwelve Post some updates so we can live vicariously through you.

Looks like the biggest snowstorm of your life has started!  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

40F with some light rain.

[Mr Marine Layer]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS was really wet for CA over the next 15 days... and a little drier than normal up here. 

CA is the new Seattle

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

CA is the new Seattle

It was 80 degrees on Christmas down there.   

[MWG]

39F and some breeze 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Extreme torching is back for this Friday on the 12Z ECMWF.

[SouthHillFrosty]

250 inches of snow in places

[Deweydog]

NHL Winter Classic at T-Mobile!

58 with +RN incoming!
 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

14 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Extreme torching is back for this Friday on the 12Z ECMWF.

Then again, probably not. Operational is warmer than any ensemble member.

[hawkstwelve]

43 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

@hawkstwelve Post some updates so we can live vicariously though you.

Looks like the biggest snowstorm of your life has started!  

Winter storm warning for 6-15 inches. 18z GFS has finally got the axis placement closer to the other models and nails me with 20 inches. 18z RGEM was at 22 inches and 18z Euro was at 17.

It was dumping snow for a little while but has lightened up a bit now. Looks like a couple inches already but the big stuff will be rolling through tomorrow morning. Thundersnow and 2-3 inch/hr rates are possible by then. It should be a doozy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pathetic GFS run. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Winter storm warning for 6-15 inches. 18z GFS has finally got the axis placement closer to the other models and nails me with 20 inches. 18z RGEM was at 22 inches and 18z Euro was at 17.

It was dumping snow for a little while but has lightened up a bit now. Looks like a couple inches already but the big stuff will be rolling through tomorrow morning. Thundersnow and 2-3 inch/hr rates are possible by then. It should be a doozy.

Saw this and thought of you... 

[Mr Marine Layer]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pathetic GFS run. 

What makes it good?

[Mr Marine Layer]

47 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

NHL Winter Classic at T-Mobile!

58 with +RN incoming!
 

Torching

[snow_wizard]

All of the big stations had a nice minus departure today.  I'll take anything on the cold side of the ledger we can get in January.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GEFS came out pretty good.  Decent -PNA late in the run.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

250 inches of snow in places

Pretty ridiculous how fast Mother Nature can even things out.

[snow_wizard]

I think we all need some eye candy right now! 

[Everleigh]

It's been chilly today. I think we only got to about 35-36°. Fog has rolled I'm thick too. 

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

All of the big stations had a nice minus departure today.  I'll take anything on the cold side of the ledger we can get in January.

Nice 50 degree high at SEA with some sunshine.     If its not cold and snowing then low 50s and sun is pretty enjoyable.    Tangible experiences are more important to me than just stats.   

[SouthHillFrosty]

Wow 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF has watered down the east wind event to where it's only what I would call high end average for such things.  Pretty remarkable given the strength of the low that's in play.  The details just don't pan out for it to get really big.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think we all need some eye candy right now! 

Looks nice. Snowing up in February so

it might happen. 

[Timmy]

Snow mixed with rain here!  Unexpected 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

38/30 today. Temp dropped to 34 when precip moved in but it was just rain. 

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wow 

 

 

Wow!  Almost sounds like Jan 1862.  Too bad we don't have the cold NW piece of the puzzle as well.  Maybe that will just be delayed a bit though.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF has watered down the east wind event to where it's only what I would call high end average for such things.  Pretty remarkable given the strength of the low that's in play.  The details just don't pan out for it to get really big.

Great news.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks nice. Snowing up in February so

it might happen. 

I still think a decent chunk of this month is in play.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX 44/32

SLE 40/34

EUG 43/35

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I still think a decent chunk of this month is in play.

Hmm… IDK about decent chunk. Maybe a few days. 

[snow_wizard]

Can't ever recall all of CA getting hit like this.  The map is only 90 hours worth.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hmm… IDK about decent chunk. Maybe a few days. 

I was thinking 7 to 10 days.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

PDX 44/32

SLE 40/34

EUG 43/35

Kind of nice surprise today.  Other than the lame max at SEA...pretty decent.  Even they dropped to 29 on the low though.