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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


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2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Low levels don't warm up much, I wouldn't call it a true torch. Plus, I think it's trending towards GEFS.1674302400-1ilRFKE9O4Q.png1674280800-y2z9PiiXjYg.png

True.

But ECMWF still shows it will be around 50 next Friday and Saturday.

It showed 48 for today at SEA and its already been up to 52.  

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Just now, Deweydog said:

image.png
image.gif

Ag Weather update this morning said if the SSW materializes it will take 2-4 weeks for it to translate to the surface and then the coldest air would be focused on the central and eastern US.    No idea if that is accurate. 

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Currently in Wenatchee and it reminds me of late afternoon of 12/23/22 around my area. Mid 30’s with snow piles getting that wet and dirty look. Fist time ever driving through Plain/Chumstick HWY since HWY 2 is currently being detoured through that area. Lots of snow and a lot of people have plows attached to their trucks! I could live there. 

FD87C02F-FFE1-463D-ACE5-1A32371A522C.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ag Weather update this morning said if the SSW materializes it will take 2-4 weeks for it to translate to the surface and then the coldest air would be focused on the central and eastern US.    No idea if that is accurate. 

That’s ag-gravating.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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8 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I see, 46 and 48 respectively, but point taken. Definitely end of torch on GEFS.

I just don't see the end in sight yet on the ECMWF.    We obviously need it to show up there consistently.   I remember Jim saying back in late December that the torch was almost over and it would be turning cold soon.    

This is the end of the ECMWF run...

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-4475200.png

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I just don't see the end in sight yet on the ECMWF.    We obviously need it to show up there consistently.   I remember Jim saying back in late December that the torch was almost over and it would be turning cold soon.    

This is the end of the ECMWF run...

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-4453600.png

I saw that, not good! Haven't we paid enough?

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Why are you responding to him like he has a soul 

I ask the same about you all the time.   

So devastating.   :)

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I guess high temps around 50 in Seattle in late January is not exactly torching.   The normal high is close to 50 by that time.    I just blanket assume anything 50+ in the winter is sort of torchy but that is technically not true per climo.

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I guess high temps around 50 in Seattle in late January is not exactly torching.   The normal high is close to 50 by that time.    I just blanket assume anything 50+ in the winter is sort of torchy but that is technically not true per climo.

Tomorrow definitely a torch. +7 anomalies.1673740800-3UGdjhB4biw.png

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1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Tomorrow definitely a torch. +7 anomalies.1673740800-3UGdjhB4biw.png

For sure... tomorrow should be the warmest day in sight.    

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53 and light rain in Crabtree.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Last frame of EPS. Don’t have gif yet but it’s moving towards us starting around this time

9C4D4154-D976-427B-8F07-49657BD5AF08.png

97B90FEF-DB04-4212-9F17-3475EEF0A6C5.png

Impressively strong GOA ridge signal for 15 days out.  

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Omg you guys. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like the models have trended a little better this morning! Hopefully the trend can continue! I have a feeling it’s coming! Currently 50.3.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

What are you doing down in Craptree Andrew?

Passing thru 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

@RentonHillTC the Dawgs are starting to show up

February 1989 redux?! 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I know, sometimes I forget.

It doesn’t get better, young’n. Sh*t just yesterday I’d completely forgot they made a third Look Who’s Talking movie. RIP Kirstie Alley.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

It makes sense to me. Much of the Rockies gets more precip in the late spring/summer in the form of rain, than they get in the winter as snow.

Oh, you mean the figure is arrived at by dividing total yearly snowfall by total yearly precipitation? Yeah, if that's the case, I can see a place like Winthrop winning. I was thinking they would compute the mean SWE ratio for all snowstorms. When the Rockies get snow, it is often very dry snow.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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