PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Doinko]

CPC Week 3-4 Discussion:

A major pattern change is forecast during late January as a high-amplitude ridge develops and strengthens near the West Coast. Ensemble means from multiple models depict this ridge axis retrograding westward from Jan 25-27 with the 500-hPa ridge becoming centered over the Northeast Pacific and Alaska. The dynamical models are in good agreement with a continued retrogression of the longwave pattern over the North Pacific and North America through week-3 (Jan 28-Feb 3) with a transition to a typical La Niña pattern with anomalous ridging over the Aleutians, downstream troughing across the western and north-central CONUS, and a subtropical ridge over the Southeast. For the week 3-4 period, excellent agreement exists between the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble means with the 500-hPa pattern and surface temperatures. Forecast confidence in the temperature outlook is raised by this excellent model agreement, consistency with tropical forcing, and evolution from weeks 2 to 3. The ECMWF ensemble mean is the strongest with a full-latitude ridge extending poleward over the Bering Strait which would favor an outbreak of Arctic air into the western and/or north-central CONUS. Although the CFS model lacks a full-latitude ridge over Alaska, its solution depicts a large area of below-normal 500-hPa heights over the western and north-central CONUS. Regardless of the magnitude of the anomalous cold, the placement of upstream ridging coupled with below-normal 500-hPa heights favors below-normal temperatures throughout the West, northern to central Great Plains, and upper Mississippi Valley. Equal chances of above or below normal temperatures (EC) is forecast for much of the southern Great Plains where forecast uncertainty is high and an intrusion of Arctic air could reach, especially if the ECMWF model solution verifies. EC is also forecast for parts of the Midwest and Great Plains where temperatures are anticipated to be highly variable. An expected storm track across the Ohio Valley along with positive 500-hPa height anomalies enhance probabilities for above-normal temperatures closer to the Gulf and East Coasts. Based on a predicted 500-hPa ridge axis over western Alaska and dynamical model output, above (below)-normal temperatures are favored for western and northern (southeastern) Alaska.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Saw on the news Lake Shasta is up 41’ the past month. Long way to go but it’s a start. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

 

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks really solid right now.

Thanks!

On 1/6/2023 at 8:00 AM, ShawniganLake said:

Jim’s meltdown is basically a necessity to deliver the goods later on. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Big dawg rises 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Been a cold winter on the high desert. 

[Omegaraptor]

39 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

These first two maps show us the 72hr precipitation totals!  I think it's pretty amazing how much rain the entirety of the West Coast has had.  It doesn't seem often that the Pacific Northwest AND California get wet.  It's nice to see, especially for CA and their drought.  Also that 'rain shadow' NE of the Olympics is pretty apparent. 

The second map is showing snow cover in the US.  Pretty nice to see some deep totals.  California needs that snow and if it doesn't all of a sudden become torchy, maybe some of that snow will stick around in the dry months.  

Poor Tiger

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Poor Tiger

The new normal.

[TT-SEA]

As mentioned... the 00Z EPS is basically there at the end of the run.  Here are the WB maps.  It's definitely coming.    Probably right as the calendar turns to February.    This is a very strong signal for 15 days out.

[Blizzard777]

It was a wet wet wet drive back through Northern Cali.  Lots of standing water in the fields along the rout. Shasta lake filling in nicely but a ways to go. 

[TacomaWx]

It reminds me of the lead up to February 2019…but don’t expect a repeat of that madness coming up. I guess it’s always possible with some of the extended patterns we’ve seen but I’m just gonna keep my expectations low. 

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It reminds me of the lead up to February 2019…but don’t expect a repeat of that madness coming up. I guess it’s always possible with some of the extended patterns we’ve seen but I’m just gonna keep my expectations low. 

The lead up and timing does feel very similar.  

[TT-SEA]

SEA radar is down until 1/20 for a "major upgrade".

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA radar is down until 1/20 for a "major upgrade".

Yeah…it’ll only go down during big events 30% of the time instead of 60% like usual now. 

[TacomaWx]

3 years ago today the January 2020 event “peaked” with 1” of snow and a 36/28 temp spread. Someday we will get clobbered in January. We’ve had quite a few events in late December or early February in recent years the timing will work out eventually. 

[RentonHill]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

As mentioned... the 00Z EPS is basically there at the end of the run.  Here are the WB maps.  It's definitely coming.    Probably right as the calendar turns to February.    This is a very strong signal for 15 days out.

Lock step from here on out

[Blizzard777]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

3 years ago today the January 2020 event “peaked” with 1” of snow and a 36/28 temp spread. Someday we will get clobbered in January. We’ve had quite a few events in late December or early February in recent years the timing will work out eventually. 

Jan 14th 2020 Documented along with a sweet shot of 2019 !!! 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Lock step from here on out

That’s pretty similar hmmmm. What’s crazy was I was at Costco in January 2005 and the models looked similar too

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Blizzard777 said:

Jan 14th 2020 Documented along with a sweet shot of 2019 !!! 

The January 2020 event could’ve been worse here…that snow didn’t stick around for long but atleast it actually snowed some. 

[RentonHill]

11 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

That’s pretty similar hmmmm. What’s crazy was I was at Costco in January 2005 and the models looked similar too

I’m pretty sure I was at the red apple in Newport hills 

[RentonHill]

Nice brisk morning. Cool fog covering lake Washington with Seattle in the background

[MossMan]

54 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

3 years ago today the January 2020 event “peaked” with 1” of snow and a 36/28 temp spread. Someday we will get clobbered in January. We’ve had quite a few events in late December or early February in recent years the timing will work out eventually. 

Meanwhile I was in the 20’s…And it snowed a fair amount! 
Just to remind everyone!

[MossMan]

It’s coming. I wonder how many times we will cancel and un-cancel it over the next two weeks! 

[TacomaWx]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Meanwhile I was in the 20’s…And it snowed a fair amount! 
Just to remind everyone!

Next time you get some snow and we miss out down here…im coming over to your house with an industrial grade heat gun and melting your snow. 

[TacomaWx]

Low of 43 this morning. Has been ridiculously warm…haven’t been below 40 in over a week and 5 consecutive +50 highs. We’re +3.5F this month but as Andrews been saying “ThE WorM WiLL tuRN” 

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

The new normal.

Lots of precip going into California and the SW? That would be really good for everyone. Would probably even help with our scorching summer problem to a degree.

Weird thing is I thought we needed to be rooting for a super Niño for this kind of thing to happen.

[Skagit Weather]

22 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Nice brisk morning. Cool fog covering lake Washington with Seattle in the background

Ah yes, when I think "brisk," 50F at 8 a.m. in January is the first thing that comes to mind. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Lots of precip going into California and the SW? That would be really good for everyone. Would probably even help with our scorching summer problem to a degree.

Weird thing is I thought we needed to be rooting for a super Niño for this kind of thing to happen.

There’s been some wacky things happening lately…like record heat in La Niña summers and us getting nailed in February 2019 during an El Niño. Not things you’d expect from those types of years. Or are we blaming Tonga still? 

[Cascadia_Wx]

46 after a low of 44 here. Kind of a cool looking sky/sunrise earlier. 

 

Rain moving in again now. Will be glad to be putting the torchy temps behind us for the most part after today.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

There’s been some wacky things happening lately…like record heat in La Niña summers and us getting nailed in February 2019 during an El Niño. Not things you’d expect from those types of years. Or are we blaming Tonga still? 

The atmosphere knew Tonga was coming up to 3 years before it even erupted. Spooky stuff  

Edited January 14, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

Ah yes, when I think "brisk," 50F at 8 a.m. in January is the first thing that comes to mind. 

43 with an east wind at my house? D**n feels brisk compared to 55 and rain!

[Skagit Weather]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

43 with an east wind at my house? D**n feels brisk compared to 55 and rain!

Oh, that makes sense. I walked out about an hour ago to let out the cat and it was 50F and my first thought was how much like a summer morning it felt even with it still dark at 7:30.

[MossMan]

Wet deck but dry and partly cloudy skies at the moment. 47 degrees. 
.01” so far on the day, 1.37” for the month. 

[Timmy]

[Timmy]

I don’t hate this

[TT-SEA]

All the models show much drier conditions in CA after this week.    Looks like it will end being a 3-4 week period of very wet weather down there which was very helpful.   I think they have seen bursts like this is recent years as well.   A strong Nino tends to bring consistent heavy precip over many months.    Best odds are with a strong Nino of course... but nothing is guaranteed.    Ninas can be very wet down there at times and not all Ninos deliver.    

Ninas used to mean generally cool summers here.    But we just had 3 Nina summers in a row and each one has been hotter than the last.    Nature is unpredictable.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Meanwhile I was in the 20’s…And it snowed a fair amount! 
Just to remind everyone!

It was a great event! I had a day with a high in the teens, and an evening when it was snowing and 14˚F, cold enough that the snow squeaked.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

48.4˚F with another 50-burger on tap for this afternoon.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

My favorite pics from 2019. The bottom pic was right after a 16 inch snowfall. Top pic is the night of the 12th I think, the peak of the depth. 

[bainbridgekid]

Three years ago today I woke up to this.

 

[Timmy]