PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

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Day 3

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Day 4

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Day 5

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Day 6

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Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

If you were to look up [excitement] in the dictionary this model run would be the exact opposite of that. I'm sure the ensembles will be vastly different after Day 5 or 6 though with a big ridge in the Gulf of Alaska.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Doinko]

GEM drops a big arctic airmass over the Midwest and Great Lakes and it looks like a very small amount of that makes it into the Columbia Basin



The ridge appears to be retrograding to a better spot for us as well

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[NWbyNW]

Raining only in Washington tonight with just a sprinkling in Oregon's NW corner around Astoria and the Cascade's.  Some low level wind gusts in the North Sound tonight   Not a lot of snow falling in the WA Cascade's. 

[RentonHill]

GFS needs to study up

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

GFS needs to study up

I have that book! It's right next to my [How to be Rain Man: for DUMMIEZ] Right there on the shelf!

[LowerGarfield]

5 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Swing and a miss

You could move to Clatsop County like I originally did. Pacific and Whakiakum not bad either.

[LowerGarfield]

3 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Countdowns
1/17/23

Spring 61 days
Summer 154 days
Fall 248 days
Winter 338 days
Christmas 341 days

I want it to be Fall again. My favorite season. My son keeps telling me he misses Christmas (previously he kept saying he misses Summer, his favorite season).

Down to 32F here.

[RentonHill]

Me after watching 10 minutes of fighter jet videos with my son

Me after watching the 00z GFS run

 

My son made me post this

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 5 to 6.5 seems like a positive development. Won't know really until Day 9 ish.

[MossMan]

Oh that looks like so much fun!!! Lucky bastard. 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

How big does a mountain need to be for upsloping/downslopingto to happen? For example, the Olympics/Cascades are great examples. However, tiger Moutains peak is 3,000ft. Yet, there is no effect really (that I am aware of). Just bored and doing research when I should be working

Green and gold mountain on the kitsap peninsula are only 1700ft and they work to hold the coldest air between them and the Olympics.  I'm on the sw slope of those mountains and get much more rain than the bremerton airport weather station just a few miles east of me leading be to believe there is some upslope effect here from those small mountains. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 9'er

[Front Ranger]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah March 2002 was pretty decent. Several really impressive cold shots with scattered valley floor accumulations. I think places up toward Bellingham didn’t really really well with that one. 2009

was good too. We had about 1/2” snow in Silverton, but places above 1000’ got 4-8”. Then some very cold dry days followed. 

Basically anywhere above 500' did well in March 2002. A couple days even had minor accumulations in Tacoma.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

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Day 2

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Day 3

[MV_snow]

I haven’t been following all the posts here recently, but I will say the fact that Gradient Keeper is posting again is an excellent sign for cold and snow upcoming.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

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Day 5

[SouthHillFrosty]

Ensembles are a hair better

Edited January 18 by SouthHillFrosty

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 Snore-fest thus far

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Slushy Inch]

[MossMan]

Almost feeling like winter again. Windy and raw out there, 40 degrees. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 Nope

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

How big does a mountain need to be for upsloping/downslopingto to happen? For example, the Olympics/Cascades are great examples. However, tiger Moutains peak is 3,000ft. Yet, there is no effect really (that I am aware of). Just bored and doing research when I should be working

Little Mountain in Queen Elizabeth Park is Vancouver’s highest hill, which tops out at about 410 feet above sea level. I am east of it. If the winds are from due west, I get measurably less moisture (not a whole lot less, but still measurably less) than stations not in its rain shadow.

[Slushy Inch]

And what is wrong with EPS on Weatherbell?

[SouthHillFrosty]

Canadians were a step back 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Canadians were a step back 

EPS looks bad as well.

[NWbyNW]

Models are showing a very sharp, thin, intense front will be headed our way and mainly effect the coastal regions of Washington and Oregon.  I don't recall seeing something so thin and uniform like this often with intense rain.  It will hit the coast Wednesday morning. Literally, it's looking like it's going to slap the coast in a downward angle.  How rude.

Wind and wind gusts will be pretty strong, ranging from 40 to possibly 60mph gusts.  

 

[Deweydog]

[Meatyorologist]

It's coming

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, NWbyNW said:

Models are showing a very sharp, thin, intense front will be headed our way and mainly effect the coastal regions of Washington and Oregon.  I don't recall seeing something so thin and uniform like this often with intense rain.  It will hit the coast Wednesday morning. Literally, it's looking like it's going to slap the coast in a downward angle.  How rude.

Wind and wind gusts will be pretty strong, ranging from 40 to possibly 60mph gusts.  

 

We usually get a couple like this each winter.

[SouthHillFrosty]

23 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

EPS looks bad as well.

The EPS isn’t even loading on Weatherbell. Is it loading on pivot?

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The EPS isn’t even loading on Weatherbell. Is it loading on pivot?

Yes.

[Deweydog]

Eleven years ago right now it was snowing outside.

[Deweydog]

39 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's coming

Pull out first!