PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[WeatherGeek2022]

5 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

 

Wow. Just utterly relentless rain in CA.

dey stole er weather

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

dey stole er weather

We are literally just going to get their leftovers.

[WeatherGeek2022]

4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

We are literally just going to get their leftovers.

yeah when do you ever see 20 inches of rain show up for WA

[Slushy Inch]

Uh... 34 degrees in Bothell, dewpoint in upper 20s, precip approaching. Very shallow cold air?

[snow_wizard]

The CFS is really liking things right now.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Uh... 34 degrees in Bothell, dewpoint in upper 20s, precip approaching. Very shallow cold air?

There actually is a shot at some snow mixing in tonight.

[ShawniganLake]

31 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

We are literally just going to get their leftovers.

Yea. The next 2 weeks look pretty lame. Mild with rain at times.  
 

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I mean no temp anomalies to work with, but models show an Alaska ridge after this.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I mean no temp anomalies to work with, but models show an Alaska ridge after this.

Yeah just slightly below normal temps.  But it's a start, maybe.

[Slushy Inch]

8 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Start of something for sure.

[snow_wizard]

37 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I mean no temp anomalies to work with, but models show an Alaska ridge after this.

Always focus on the 500mb stuff first.  The rest will always fall into place.

[Slushy Inch]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Always focus on the 500mb stuff first.  The rest will always fall into place.

But we do need an Alaska ridge to get real negative temp anomalies.

[TT-SEA]

@hawkstwelve Enjoying some streaming Sioux Falls traffic cams this morning and people just cruising around on the roads in a blizzard.  

On the live stream that light pole in the foreground is swaying back and forth.  

[hawkstwelve]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

@hawkstwelve Enjoying some streaming Sioux Falls traffic cams this morning and people just cruising around on the roads in a total blizzard.  

On the live stream that light pole in the foreground is swaying back and forth.  

Yeah it's showtime here and city officials have asked people to not travel but I'm still seeing cars passing by on the main road behind our house. Kinda stupid if you ask me, but nothing new given past recent storms.

Definitely a different mentality around here for snow. While there was still the mad dash at Costco yesterday once word got out, just like at Costcos in the PNW before a storm, for the most part people expect to continue on with their daily lives shortly after the storm rolls through. It's not a "the city will shutdown for a week" type of vibe but instead like a "ok let's dig out and move on" feel. Certainly helps we have the plows and gear to maintain roads better than Seattle but I gotta say, it's kind of fun when the city shuts down because of a snowstorm. I miss it just a bit.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Geez. SLE is the worst location sometimes. They hit 47 yesterday evening after and afternoon high of

only 40, and they are currently at 45 when pretty much no one else in the willamette valley is over 38. 
 

33.6 here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z CFS was decent. We are still

7-10 days from seeing much on GFS runs. I’m rooting for a big trough to carve out and lots of onshore flow. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Friday afternoon 60 burgers are on again! Maybe. At least for Eugene.

Most recent ECMWF:

Previous:

[TacomaWx]

7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Friday afternoon 60 burgers are on again! Maybe. At least for Eugene.

Most recent ECMWF:

Previous:

You spamming these pineapple maps on the forum should be considered a war crime against weather weenies. 

[TacomaWx]

Definitely been pretty meh since Christmas Eve overall…low of 36 this morning with 0.09” of rain since midnight. Only 4 weeks until February! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

You spamming these pineapple maps on the forum should be considered a war crime against weather weenies. 

Sometimes I think they should rename this the snow forum. Except torching is relevant for snow, too, because it controls whether we get it or not.

Way I see it is, if Team Snow has no potential on the horizon to root for, might as well cheer on Team Pineapple.

Anyhow, the GFS has recently been trending torchy for Friday afternoon as well:

And it’s not just me. I checked the NWS forecast for Eugene, and their forecast max for Friday has now been bumped into the upper 50’s. The official forecasters recognize the trend, too.

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Yeah it's showtime here and city officials have asked people to not travel but I'm still seeing cars passing by on the main road behind our house. Kinda stupid if you ask me, but nothing new given past recent storms.

Definitely a different mentality around here for snow. While there was still the mad dash at Costco yesterday once word got out, just like at Costcos in the PNW before a storm, for the most part people expect to continue on with their daily lives shortly after the storm rolls through. It's not a "the city will shutdown for a week" type of vibe but instead like a "ok let's dig out and move on" feel. Certainly helps we have the plows and gear to maintain roads better than Seattle but I gotta say, it's kind of fun when the city shuts down because of a snowstorm. I miss it just a bit.

This cam is just across the border from Sioux Falls in SW MN... I can see why travel is not advised.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This cam is just across the border from Sioux Falls in SW MN... I can see why travel is not advised.

 

Brings to mind the opening scene from Fargo.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the models there are going to be plenty of torch opportunities the next few weeks. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dropped to 32 before I left for work this morning. Nice to see. 

Looks like fairly widespread light snow in Eastern Oregon and even the Central Gorge this morning. 

[TacomaWx]

31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at the models there are going to be plenty of torch opportunities the next few weeks. 

I get the feeling if we get a good round of snow and cold it’ll end up starting on the night of the 31st…and January spites us again. Last year the goodies ended on January 1st so it’d only be fitting if it went down that way. 

[Tyler Mode]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

This cam is just across the border from Sioux Falls in SW MN... I can see why travel is not advised.

 

Yet people will blame officials when they get caught out in it...

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

This cam is just across the border from Sioux Falls in SW MN... I can see why travel is not advised.

 

1/8 mile visibility with thunder snow in the vicinity of Sioux falls

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

I get the feeling if we get a good round of snow and cold it’ll end up starting on the night of the 31st…and January spites us again. Last year the goodies ended on January 1st so it’d only be fitting if it went down that way. 

Haha it is possible. Some of the longer range models show some opportunities that final week of the month, but personally I will be gone the 25-30th, so I wouldn't mind if it waits. I do think it is coming though. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That weekend system looks like the real deal for California. 

[LowerGarfield]

9 hours ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

dey stole er weather

That's great for CA. Currently it is 29F outside. Cool and overcast. Back to work soon and it feels like a Monday. January is our busiest time.

[ShawniganLake]

32 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I get the feeling if we get a good round of snow and cold it’ll end up starting on the night of the 31st…and January spites us again. Last year the goodies ended on January 1st so it’d only be fitting if it went down that way. 

Probably. I’d bet the next round of cold ends up in the east and then the pattern retrogrades towards late January or early February 

[Chris]

Woke up to a surprise inch of snow on the car this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Geez that is a horrendous GFS run. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Happy new year.

Had some wet snow last night at 34 degrees.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I set up a led light bar at cabin to shine at night to watch the snow. We had 1 mild day last week then it stayed below freezing the rest of the week. 

[North_County]

Confirmed light snowfall at the moment. Kinda strange to see it falling straight down.

[North_County]

2 minutes ago, North_County said:

Confirmed light snowfall at the moment. Kinda strange to see it falling straight down.

It's actually even sticking already, which shocked me a bit.

[North_County]

8 minutes ago, North_County said:

It's actually even sticking already, which shocked me a bit.

Third and final update. This snowfall rate has really become kind of impressive all of a sudden....all things considered. Much prettier to watch than last month's snow. (You probably have to zoom in a bit to see the actual snowflakes in the second picture)

Edited January 3 by North_County

[Cloud]

CFS has been quite persistent for this time frame. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

15 minutes ago, Cloud said:

CFS has been quite persistent for this time frame. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at ENSO, I think next winter might squeak in a weak Nino. Wouldn't be shocked to see a warm neutral. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Added up the final December stats. We over achieved a little on temps last week, and ended the month with a mean of 36.7, just one tenth of a degree cooler than November. 9.10" of precip, which is a little over 2" below average, and 3.4" of snowfall. 

We only had 17 freezes, which was a little disappointing after 23 in November, we did not have a freeze the final 8 days of the month. At least we have started January with 3 straight. 

[LowerGarfield]

We're getting a few flakes. Wife checked for me and says it's graupel.

[MossMan]

Even better positive signs for the PNA drop later in the month over yesterday’s forecast. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Even better positive signs for the PNA drop later in the month over yesterday’s forecast. 

Daily fuzz!

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Daily fuzz!

It’s Baaack!!! 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

It’s Baaack!!! 

And its coming!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The end of the GFS isn't horrible. Just looking at the models though that mid-range is going to be UGLY and has major torch potential in the Willamette Valley. Hard to say which days, but with those fronts splitting offshore and lows moving up the coast to the north, it seems like there will be at least a few days in there when there is sunshine and enough south wind to mix out any inversions. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All eyes now turn towards the 12z CFS.