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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


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The CFS is really liking things right now.

1675382400-zcj03eeIOAM.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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11 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Uh... 34 degrees in Bothell, dewpoint in upper 20s, precip approaching. Very shallow cold air?

There actually is a shot at some snow mixing in tonight.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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37 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I mean no temp anomalies to work with, but models show an Alaska ridge after this.

Always focus on the 500mb stuff first.  The rest will always fall into place.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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  • Staff

@hawkstwelve Enjoying some streaming Sioux Falls traffic cams this morning and people just cruising around on the roads in a blizzard.  😀

On the live stream that light pole in the foreground is swaying back and forth.  

sf1.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

@hawkstwelve Enjoying some streaming Sioux Falls traffic cams this morning and people just cruising around on the roads in a total blizzard.  😀

On the live stream that light pole in the foreground is swaying back and forth.  

sf1.png

Yeah it's showtime here and city officials have asked people to not travel but I'm still seeing cars passing by on the main road behind our house. Kinda stupid if you ask me, but nothing new given past recent storms.

Definitely a different mentality around here for snow. While there was still the mad dash at Costco yesterday once word got out, just like at Costcos in the PNW before a storm, for the most part people expect to continue on with their daily lives shortly after the storm rolls through. It's not a "the city will shutdown for a week" type of vibe but instead like a "ok let's dig out and move on" feel. Certainly helps we have the plows and gear to maintain roads better than Seattle but I gotta say, it's kind of fun when the city shuts down because of a snowstorm. I miss it just a bit.

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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  • Longtimer

Geez. SLE is the worst location sometimes. They hit 47 yesterday evening after and afternoon high of

only 40, and they are currently at 45 when pretty much no one else in the willamette valley is over 38. 
 

33.6 here. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

00z CFS was decent. We are still

7-10 days from seeing much on GFS runs. I’m rooting for a big trough to carve out and lots of onshore flow. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Friday afternoon 60 burgers are on again! Maybe. At least for Eugene.

Most recent ECMWF:

ecmwf-deterministic-or_wa-t2m_f_max6-3049600.thumb.png.66079b8ad1d0f46c6ab4dbdc460bc924.png

Previous:

previous.thumb.png.881bb5d1b6dd6711567d062663acbb42.png

You spamming these pineapple maps on the forum should be considered a war crime against weather weenies. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-9

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-19

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-2.88”

Wet season rainfall-16.37”

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Definitely been pretty meh since Christmas Eve overall…low of 36 this morning with 0.09” of rain since midnight. Only 4 weeks until February! 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-9

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-19

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-2.88”

Wet season rainfall-16.37”

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

You spamming these pineapple maps on the forum should be considered a war crime against weather weenies. 

Sometimes I think they should rename this the snow forum. Except torching is relevant for snow, too, because it controls whether we get it or not.

Way I see it is, if Team Snow has no potential on the horizon to root for, might as well cheer on Team Pineapple.

Anyhow, the GFS has recently been trending torchy for Friday afternoon as well:

gfs-deterministic-or_wa-t2m_f_max6-3049600.thumb.png.65b373aa19b62959e8b80b6a055e5a0e.pngprevious_gfs.thumb.png.8acfc25359335054ec3f618b83b94b76.png

And it’s not just me. I checked the NWS forecast for Eugene, and their forecast max for Friday has now been bumped into the upper 50’s. The official forecasters recognize the trend, too.

  • lol 1
It's called clown range for a reason.

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  • Staff
1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Yeah it's showtime here and city officials have asked people to not travel but I'm still seeing cars passing by on the main road behind our house. Kinda stupid if you ask me, but nothing new given past recent storms.

Definitely a different mentality around here for snow. While there was still the mad dash at Costco yesterday once word got out, just like at Costcos in the PNW before a storm, for the most part people expect to continue on with their daily lives shortly after the storm rolls through. It's not a "the city will shutdown for a week" type of vibe but instead like a "ok let's dig out and move on" feel. Certainly helps we have the plows and gear to maintain roads better than Seattle but I gotta say, it's kind of fun when the city shuts down because of a snowstorm. I miss it just a bit.

This cam is just across the border from Sioux Falls in SW MN... I can see why travel is not advised.

 

C30346-v3.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

Looking at the models there are going to be plenty of torch opportunities the next few weeks. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Dropped to 32 before I left for work this morning. Nice to see. 

Looks like fairly widespread light snow in Eastern Oregon and even the Central Gorge this morning. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at the models there are going to be plenty of torch opportunities the next few weeks. 

I get the feeling if we get a good round of snow and cold it’ll end up starting on the night of the 31st…and January spites us again. Last year the goodies ended on January 1st so it’d only be fitting if it went down that way. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-9

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-19

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-2.88”

Wet season rainfall-16.37”

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  • Longtimer
1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

This cam is just across the border from Sioux Falls in SW MN... I can see why travel is not advised.

 

C30346-v3.jpg

Yet people will blame officials when they get caught out in it...

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

I get the feeling if we get a good round of snow and cold it’ll end up starting on the night of the 31st…and January spites us again. Last year the goodies ended on January 1st so it’d only be fitting if it went down that way. 

Haha it is possible. Some of the longer range models show some opportunities that final week of the month, but personally I will be gone the 25-30th, so I wouldn't mind if it waits. I do think it is coming though. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

That weekend system looks like the real deal for California. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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9 hours ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

dey stole er weather

That's great for CA. Currently it is 29F outside. Cool and overcast. Back to work soon and it feels like a Monday. January is our busiest time.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 9.3 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 2.20 inches (12/19/22 & 12/20/22)

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) snowfall: 2.0 on 12/23/22

Days with trace or more snow: 11/1/22 (1 inch), 11/28/22 (.80), 12/01/22 (T), 12/02/22 (T), 12/4/22 (.20), 12/5/22 (1.5), 12/14/22 (1.6), 12/18/22 (T), 12/19/22 (2.10), 12/20/22 (.10), 12/23/22 (2.0), 01/03/2023 (T), 1/22/23 (T)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 0F (12/21/2022)

Last sub freezing high: 12/23/22 (possibly 12/24/22)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location  (I've also had a White Christmas in 2017 when I lived in Stanwood and a White Christmas at a hotel in Moscow, ID in 2020). 

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32 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I get the feeling if we get a good round of snow and cold it’ll end up starting on the night of the 31st…and January spites us again. Last year the goodies ended on January 1st so it’d only be fitting if it went down that way. 

Probably. I’d bet the next round of cold ends up in the east and then the pattern retrogrades towards late January or early February 

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  • Longtimer

Geez that is a horrendous GFS run. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, North_County said:

It's actually even sticking already, which shocked me a bit.

Third and final update. This snowfall rate has really become kind of impressive all of a sudden....all things considered. Much prettier to watch than last month's snow. (You probably have to zoom in a bit to see the actual snowflakes in the second picture)20230103_094500.thumb.jpg.347928e98886752e39c0fd607be75211.jpg20230103_094001.thumb.jpg.505181eee64e9bb32f2f6267970d6b15.jpg

Edited by North_County
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  • Longtimer
15 minutes ago, Cloud said:

CFS has been quite persistent for this time frame. 

floop-cfs-2023010300.500h_anom_na.gif

cfs-mon_01_T2ma_namer_1.png

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Looking at ENSO, I think next winter might squeak in a weak Nino. Wouldn't be shocked to see a warm neutral. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Added up the final December stats. We over achieved a little on temps last week, and ended the month with a mean of 36.7, just one tenth of a degree cooler than November. 9.10" of precip, which is a little over 2" below average, and 3.4" of snowfall. 

We only had 17 freezes, which was a little disappointing after 23 in November, we did not have a freeze the final 8 days of the month. At least we have started January with 3 straight. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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We're getting a few flakes. Wife checked for me and says it's graupel.

  • Like 1

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 9.3 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 2.20 inches (12/19/22 & 12/20/22)

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) snowfall: 2.0 on 12/23/22

Days with trace or more snow: 11/1/22 (1 inch), 11/28/22 (.80), 12/01/22 (T), 12/02/22 (T), 12/4/22 (.20), 12/5/22 (1.5), 12/14/22 (1.6), 12/18/22 (T), 12/19/22 (2.10), 12/20/22 (.10), 12/23/22 (2.0), 01/03/2023 (T), 1/22/23 (T)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 0F (12/21/2022)

Last sub freezing high: 12/23/22 (possibly 12/24/22)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location  (I've also had a White Christmas in 2017 when I lived in Stanwood and a White Christmas at a hotel in Moscow, ID in 2020). 

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  • Longtimer

Even better positive signs for the PNA drop later in the month over yesterday’s forecast. 

B2D256B6-BC0A-42D7-9758-7EEF851A5317.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Even better positive signs for the PNA drop later in the month over yesterday’s forecast. 

B2D256B6-BC0A-42D7-9758-7EEF851A5317.jpeg

Daily fuzz!

  • Excited 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Daily fuzz!

It’s Baaack!!! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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  • Longtimer

The end of the GFS isn't horrible. Just looking at the models though that mid-range is going to be UGLY and has major torch potential in the Willamette Valley. Hard to say which days, but with those fronts splitting offshore and lows moving up the coast to the north, it seems like there will be at least a few days in there when there is sunshine and enough south wind to mix out any inversions. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

All eyes now turn towards the 12z CFS. 

  • lol 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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