PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m going to level with y’all. I’m losing hope. 

The wurm has torned!

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Doinko said:

There's always April!

Ha, I forgot the GFS went this bonkers. It had the general idea right, just a bit off on the totals 4 days out.

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Chilly! Already down to 36.

.85” on the day. 

Nice to have the chill back.  Only hit 45 here today.  The ECMWF actually has some decent mins over the next 10 days.

[Front Ranger]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just build a domed city where you control all the weather... that is easier than building a 500 mile long retractable wall that is 2,000 feet high and still would not be able to protect you from warm air masses.  

[snow_wizard]

GEFS extended and the last few CFS runs look pretty good.  I think there will be some decent runs the next couple of days.

[SnowWillarrive]

18 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The Saudis have the money. Too bad MBS doesn’t live in Seattle as a big snow fan. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just got out of doc apt and the baby had 10 weeks left. Any analogs?

Edited January 19 by SouthHillFrosty

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Not as much snow as you were expecting up there today dogg? 

First pic from the neighbor. 2nd pic from Mary s Peak. Wasn’t expecting anything really.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Something crunchy hitting my windows. Hail? Don't think it's cold enough for anything else, but radar doesn't look like hail. Weird.

[joelgombiner]

Much heavier rain than I was expecting. 

[snow_wizard]

The 6 to 10 day outlook is for below normal temps and below normal precip.  Sounds good to me while we wait for the good stuff.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Much heavier rain than I was expecting. 

C-Zone.

[RentonHill]

Hail

[snow_wizard]

Latest obs from the 18/90 junction shows 35 with snow.

[joelgombiner]

Two years ago today I was camping near Paradise at Mt. Rainier. Highly recommended for snow-lovers + you get the place to yourself after all the day-trippers leave. 

[RentonHill]

Down to 36! This is a good one

[MossMan]

34! 

[TacomaWx]

48/40 today…currently 40 so a midnight low looks likely. Should be our first time in the 30s since January 6th as well. 

[Skagit Weather]

23 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Two years ago today I was camping near Paradise at Mt. Rainier. Highly recommended for snow-lovers + you get the place to yourself after all the day-trippers leave. 

Unfortunately you used to be able to do this any night of the week, but now everybody is concentrated on Saturday nights because the road up to Paradise is only open Sat/Sun this year. Of course, still plenty of solitude, but a lot fewer good weather nights to choose from.

[TacomaWx]

Out of the last 26 days since (12/23)…we’ve only had 6 lows in the 30s and one freeze. We’ve also had 14 +50 highs.

[Skagit Weather]

3 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

As have I. Some here really would be happier in a colder climate, given how they always seem to want more cold and snow. Plus, torching is as worthy of discussion in a weather forum as is cold.

I would have enjoyed it more if we'd had actually some exciting weather (like a decent Atmospheric River or two) and maybe a wind storm. But here it's really just been warm and dry which is significantly worse than cold and dry. It's been even more boring than climo because at least during climo you have snowpack building in the mountains.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On Mary s Peak road. Sun was setting so we didn’t go to the top. 

[icyasf]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

On Mary s Peak road. Sun was setting so we didn’t go to the top. 

Was planning on snowshoeing to the top this weekend after parking halfway. Did there seem like there was a decent amount of snow off the road?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS I suspect this will be a rather boring model run and based on the EPS/GEFS I don't think we'll see a favorable blocking pattern show up on the operational runs just yet. Not yet. Patience.

Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[MossMan]

One month ago today it was beginning! 

[Skagit Weather]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Out of the last 26 days since (12/23)…we’ve only had 6 lows in the 30s and one freeze. We’ve also had 14 +50 highs.

Pretty similar here. On December 22nd it was 5.2F. Since the 23rd I've only had 4 lows below 40F and the coldest it's been was 34F. And 18 highs that were 50F or higher. Quite the shift so hopefully we can shift just as suddenly back.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Skagit Weather said:

Pretty similar here. On December 22nd it was 5.2F. Since the 23rd I've only had 4 lows below 40F and the coldest it's been was 34F. And 18 highs that were 50F or higher. Quite the shift so hopefully we can shift just as suddenly back.

Yeah it’s been an exceedingly dull stretch of weather. Just mild and rainy but not a lot of rain. I hope things work out next month but if not atleast November-December were pretty active for the most part. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

38 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Two years ago today I was camping near Paradise at Mt. Rainier. Highly recommended for snow-lovers + you get the place to yourself after all the day-trippers leave. 

Looks amazing if you've got the right gear. Only weekend access to Paradise this year though. Staffing issues.

[snow_wizard]

This C-Zone is dropping the temps pretty impressively.  18/90 junction is down to 33 now.  That's just about 1000 feet.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[snow_wizard]

14 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Out of the last 26 days since (12/23)…we’ve only had 6 lows in the 30s and one freeze. We’ve also had 14 +50 highs.

Glad that's over now.

[Skagit Weather]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Yeah it’s been an exceedingly dull stretch of weather. Just mild and rainy but not a lot of rain. I hope things work out next month but if not atleast November-December were pretty active for the most part. 

Each winter at the least I want one good snow event. Don't get me wrong, I would love multiple extended snowy and cold periods, but I'm pretty happy we got something last month. Of course we were quite lucky up here in the North Sound and I can understand other areas not being nearly as content with how the winter has gone. Hopefully February buries us all.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS I suspect this will be a rather boring model run and based on the EPS/GEFS I don't think we'll see a favorable blocking pattern show up on the operational runs just yet. Not yet. Patience.

Day 1

The 12z EPS was quite good actually.  -3 PNA by the end.

[TT-SEA]

Some wet snow here now.

Sure is nice not having radar.

[Phil]

5 hours ago, Doinko said:

CFS looks great

Unfortunately the CFS has no value whatsoever.

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I would have enjoyed it more if we'd had actually some exciting weather (like a decent Atmospheric River or two) and maybe a wind storm. But here it's really just been warm and dry which is significantly worse than cold and dry. It's been even more boring than climo because at least during climo you have snowpack building in the mountains.

I wish I could give some of the wind this area experiences to places like yours.  It was windy for like two weeks here.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[snow_wizard]

Sounds like some people may not have seen this.  Yuge improvmenty from previous runs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

17 minutes ago, icyasf said:

Was planning on snowshoeing to the top this weekend after parking halfway. Did there seem like there was a decent amount of snow off the road?

We really didn’t go up super high. Maybe about halfway. There wasn’t a ton of snow where we turned around. 4-6” maybe? I don’t know how much there was higher up.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Sounds like some people may not have seen this.  Yuge improvmenty from previous runs.

Needs to be consistent now.   Could go the other way on the next few runs.   You forcing people to be excited never seems to work out well.   Better if you remain skeptical.   

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Sounds like some people may not have seen this.  Yuge improvmenty from previous runs.

Seen it. Not too bad, just need that block to migrate east-northeast.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 c'mon inversion/fake cold!

[AlTahoe]

Somebody posted this picture of the Carl's Jr drive though in Mammoth lakes. lol 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Front Ranger]

30 minutes ago, MossMan said:

One month ago today it was beginning! 

I swear you have more snow pics than a 14 year old girl has IG selfies.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7.5 PDX-DLS -6mb, breezy east wind.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Meanwhile....

The 00z GEM Day 7.5 trying to dig cold air backdoor style. Strong east wind.