PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nah, it’s not hard. I never keep a light on mine so they don’t lay during the winter. Don’t get a rooster unless you want them to reproduce. Roosters are generally mean and can be pretty aggressive when you come around the hens. 

When I was a teen, our neighbours got chickens, and they ended up with a rooster even though they had not planned on it, thanks to one of their “guaranteed female” chicks failing to be as advertised.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

When I was a teen, our neighbours got chickens, and they ended up with a rooster even though they had not planned on it, thanks to one of their “guaranteed female” chicks failing to be as advertised.

That’s exactly how I got mine. Lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

"Little Jerry?"

Well thankfully my dog eventually killed him. 

[TacomaWx]

48/44 so far today with 0.31” of rain. First sub 50 high in a week. #itscoming

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

"Little Jerry?"

My neighbours named theirs (a Rhode Island Red) after the county attorney, who was tall and had a shock of red hair.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

This is a very classic look before some of our all time great blasts.  Flat ridge in perfect position for an explosive amplification / retrogression.

Ugh… too bad that model only runs to 144 hours.

[MossMan]

Are we within NAM range yet? This month is taking forever.

Currently 43 and raining. 
.19” so far on the day. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My brother in Coos County picked up over 2” today. He’s up to around 6.5”

on the month. 

[RentonHill]

Got up to 39 in twisp today with decent sun. All of the snow on top of the shop metal roof finally slid off. This camera is like 10 feet up. 

[snow_wizard]

Costco pot pies are good!  Even my wife, who isn't a huge pot pie fan, liked it.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Got up to 39 in twisp today with decent sun. All of the snow on top of the shop metal roof finally slid off. This camera is like 10 feet up. 

That is a big pile of snow!

[snow_wizard]

29 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Are we within NAM range yet? This month is taking forever.

Currently 43 and raining. 
.19” so far on the day. 

January has just been torture in recent years.

[snow_wizard]

Last two CFS runs have been really pretty.

[snow_wizard]

Tonight's GFS is pretty chilly for Friday through next Monday or so.  Looking forward to that.

[RentonHill]

17 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Got up to 39 in twisp today with decent sun. All of the snow on top of the shop metal roof finally slid off. This camera is like 10 feet up. 

Season progress comparisons (plus deer for scale)

November 3rd

December 14th

[lowlandsnow]

Does anyone know why NASA mentions hurricane Ian but they leave out the below average Pacific typhoon and fairly average Altantic hurricane season?

NASA Says 2022 Fifth Warmest Year on Record, Warming Trend Continues | NASA

[Doinko]

Not much of a break in the wind recently

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Does anyone know why NASA mentions hurricane Ian but they leave out the below average Pacific typhoon and fairly average Altantic hurricane season?

NASA Says 2022 Fifth Warmest Year on Record, Warming Trend Continues | NASA

Because that doesn't fit the we're all going to die narrative.

[Deweydog]

Had some sprinkles earlier.

[Christensen87]

Latest GFS runs have taken a step back. 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

Latest GFS runs have taken a step back. 

It’s over 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

9 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Latest GFS runs have taken a step back. 

Since any interesting weather is 10+ days away, the operational runs are irrelevant for that time period.  

[MossMan]

Heavy rain. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

Interesting article about how the long range forecasts are so bad, especially for California.

https://wapo.st/3XhMFVe

[Anti Marine Layer]

4 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Interesting article about how the long range forecasts are so bad, especially for California.

https://wapo.st/3XhMFVe

Climate change is a long range forecast. 

[SnowWillarrive]

10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Heavy rain. 

If this was snow your power would be out. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Climate change is a long range forecast. 

I really wish I could have some assurance it might be warmer on July 15th than it was today. That date is so far in the future, and as a result the forecast is so long range, that it’s really impossible to have any idea.

[MossMan]

3 hours ago, Terreboner2 said:

"Little Jerry?"

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Welp, looks like the models have taken as bad a shitt as the Chargers and Vikings.

[TT-SEA]

21 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Heavy rain. 

Not a fun drive from Bellingham to home over the last 2 hours... some very heavy rain from Everett northward.

Temp was in the 43-45 degree range most of the drive so definitely cooler than the drive up this morning.

[Anti Marine Layer]

12 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I really wish I could have some assurance it might be warmer on July 15th than it was today. That date is so far in the future, and as a result the forecast is so long range, that it’s really impossible to have any idea.

California beach areas can get hotter days in January with Santa Ana Winds than they do in July with onshore flow and a shallow marine layer

[Deweydog]

Got a lot easier to catch up again!

[snow_wizard]

Massive change on the ECMWF for this weekend.  Huge move toward the GFS's chillier solution.

[snow_wizard]

46 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

California beach areas can get hotter days in January with Santa Ana Winds than they do in July with onshore flow and a shallow marine layer

I think that is barely possible on the WA Coast.  We're talking low 60s in both scenarios.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Welp, looks like the models have taken as bad a shitt as the Chargers and Vikings.

Not really.

[snow_wizard]

Really impressive change for next Sunday night on the ECMWF.

 

[snow_wizard]

I dunno.  Things look fine to me tonight.

[snow_wizard]

Where is everyone?  Hellooooo.....

[Doinko]

Euro ends at a pretty great spot