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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


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  • Longtimer

Tragic CFS run

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There have been literally no signs for an arctic blast pattern. Wouldn’t expect it to start now. 

I expect it immediately! Nah, you know how it is it'll creep into the picture about 4-6 days before it happens.

6z NAM in 11 hours 13 minutes

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  • Longtimer
4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Good for our Cascade snow pack(down to Foothills at times), but not much else. The block is way too far to the west in the Bering Sea. Hopefully that will correct itself in the days to come.

18z GFs in 1 hour 17 minutes
00z GFS in 7 hours 17 minutes
00z ECMWF in 9 hours 27 minutes

Pretty sure the block was around 160w at times  in feb 2019. I remember Dewey talking about that also then.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Pretty sure the block was around 160w at times  in feb 2019. I remember Dewey talking about that also then.

Dewey didn’t get much snow that month.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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EPS unfortunately did trend stronger with the +NAM/+NAO along with more +TNH. Hopefully just a blip.

D1ED9A53-DDFF-4D21-B89C-DDC12006FB50.png

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  • Staff
2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

WEEKLIES!

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom_7day-1674086400-1674691200-1678060800-20.gif

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-t2m_f_anom_7day-1674086400-1674691200-1678060800-20.gif

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-t850_anom_7day-1674086400-1674691200-1678060800-20.gif

Might not be a cold trough just parked over the PNW all of February.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Staff

Low clouds parked over SEA all day... stuck at 40 for the last few hours.   

Meanwhile its almost totally sunny and 44 in North Bend.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

Looks a lot like 2019, another bite at the apple brewing for late February.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Actually managed to get down to 32 this morning for a freeze. Currently 45.8 on this beautiful partly cloudy day!

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2022-2023 Winter Stats

Total Snowfall - 14.25”

Max Snow Depth - 6”

Coldest High Temp - 23F

Coldest Low Temp - 11F

Number of Freezes - 43

Sub-40 highs - 16

Highs 32 or lower - 3

 

 

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We got a blue sky warning in place!  The sun is peaking out at various areas around the Sound.  This is not a drill!

4a16b44bcbcc59f5f076ce7a72d87310.gif.9d17d6d86bbe6d1c6fb7b5c37642be79.gif

1597922460_ScreenShot2023-01-19at1_50_44PM.thumb.png.163673e32f892021e8b6c953d1d5ac85.png

 

 

 

Partly sunny with some THICC dark clouds still overhead here in Everett.  When I first went out to my car this morning, it was 39F.  Not sure if it was colder than that earlier.

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25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Low clouds parked over SEA all day... stuck at 40 for the last few hours.   

Meanwhile its almost totally sunny and 44 in North Bend.

Getting legit North Bend weather here today. Drizzle with the treetops poking into the cloud/fog deck. Drip drip drip everywhere. 🌧️ 

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  • Longtimer

So beautiful in Newport. I’d miss the snow, but I may need to move to the coast eventually. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Staff
12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Getting legit North Bend weather here today. Drizzle with the treetops poking into the cloud/fog deck. Drip drip drip everywhere. 🌧️ 

Have not seen much of that here this winter.   We had lots of dry weather and sun in November... then cold and snowy in December with snow on the ground almost the entire month until the last few days... and now January has been wet at times but usually with an east wind which means the cloud bases are high and it clears up quickly so its been a repeating pattern of bands of rain and periods of sun for the most part this month.    I can't remember a day this winter that has been totally socked in with drizzle and fog but there has probably been a couple.    That type of weather has actually been quite rare here since last spring.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So beautiful in Newport. I’d miss the snow, but I may need to move to the coast eventually. 

Coast the best

 

My favs:

1. Big Sur/Monterey Bay, CA

2. Maine Coast

3. Outer Banks, NC

4. Kona Coast, Big Island HI

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For now... give it a couple months.

Exactly. CA drought was pretty much minimalized/wiped out in winter 16-17 when Oroville Dam almost burst.  The drought came roaring back.  CA is in a cycle of 1 good/overly wet water year follow by anywhere between 4-8 normal/dryish to super dry years, rinse, repeat.  Will be interesting to see what El Nino will have in store for them (usually wetter) can they string along a few wet years?

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21 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:


 

And he's jumping on the drought monitor again. Even Mark Nelsen said last spring when Cliff Mass was talking about the drought that he was probably thinking too much about the short term

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  • Longtimer
12 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

Summer home.

I’m not rich like Tim… at least not until my 900 kids are grown. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
20 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Coast the best

 

My favs:

1. Big Sur/Monterey Bay, CA

2. Maine Coast

3. Outer Banks, NC

4. Kona Coast, Big Island HI

Your #1 is amazing. Totally agree. 
 

Here on the Oregon coast I’d probably go with the Florence area, but further south towards Port Orford would be my #2.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Are we model riding the 18z or am I a degen?

Already seeing it going off the rails. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Your #1 is amazing. Totally agree. 
 

Here on the Oregon coast I’d probably go with the Florence area, but further south towards Port Orford would be my #2.

arguably I haven't spent a whole lot of time on the OR coast.  hope to change that this summer

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  • Longtimer
Just now, Phishy Wx said:

arguably I haven't spent a whole lot of time on the OR coast.  hope to change that this summer

Avoid Lincoln City. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Pretty sure the block was around 160w at times  in feb 2019. I remember Dewey talking about that also then.

Yeah if that block ends up at ~160 W we could definitely score, but at ~170 W where its at on the EPS won't get the job done in terms of arctic air.

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  • Longtimer
6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Good post from him and he makes a strong argument with the data and fancy charts, as well as the reasons for the droughts, low water issues with Lake Mead/Powell, and to look for real, viable solutions.

00z GFS in 4 hours 42 minutes

The recent meteorological drought is now over.  But California needs better long-term planning and infrastructure to sustainabley support the current and future pooulation and a huge agriculural industry.”

Sounds sh*tty.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Maine Coast. A bit of a move, but you would not have to give up snow.

Guess where this is?  

I was actually there in late October, 1999.  Nowhere to live but the snow has to be unbelievable.Abol-Bridge-Katahdin-view-Kim-Pak-Loopy.thumb.jpg.a5d65345ee26381e08bc50e21865b922.jpg

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  • Longtimer
5 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

Guess where this is?  

I was actually there in late October, 1999.  Nowhere to live but the snow has to be unbelievable.Abol-Bridge-Katahdin-view-Kim-Pak-Loopy.thumb.jpg.a5d65345ee26381e08bc50e21865b922.jpg

 

I (aka Google) will guess that it's Mt. Katahdin in northern ME. 

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  • Longtimer
23 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

Unless you like to gamble.

Coos Bay/North Bend has gambling options. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Model comparison 18z GFS vs 18z GEFS Day 4 to 7.5. You can see the solutions diverge quickly after Day 6.5 which is to be expected. Bottom line: There is no point taking anything the Op run shows after Day 6 seriously. Ever. NEVER. Unless it shows a lot of Cold and SNOW!!!!, nope not even then. Not even 384hr snow maps showing 4 feet! NO. Just resist!

floop-gfs-2023011918.500h_anom.na(1).gif

floop-gefsens-2023011918.500h_anom-mean_na.gif

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