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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


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20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Coos Bay/North Bend has gambling options. 

So does Bovada. Anybody wants some sports betting advice, I'm happy to help.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 31F (Dec 22, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 29 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 20, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: 0.25" (graupel)
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (mostly graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

EPS unfortunately did trend stronger with the +NAM/+NAO along with more +TNH. Hopefully just a blip.

D1ED9A53-DDFF-4D21-B89C-DDC12006FB50.png

Unless the models are just confused because of the SSW, it looks like any intrusion of arctic air into the PNW would be brief based on long range models. What are your thoughts?

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13 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Of course, better then the Maine coast is the Newfoundland coast.

DildoNewfoundland.thumb.jpg.a34fa7f21f371f6519dd9ac6eeefc35c.jpg

Apparently James Cook gave that place its name because he thought it was funny as bards would use the word as a euphemism for what the object was otherwise called at the time in the 1500s, then by the 1700s people just always used that word for it.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 31F (Dec 22, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 29 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 20, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: 0.25" (graupel)
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (mostly graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Apparently James Cook gave that place its name because he thought it was funny as bards would use the word as a euphemism for what the object was otherwise called at the time in the 1500s, then by the 1700s people just always used that word for it.

There's a bunch of rumors out there about the origin of the name, all unconfirmed.

Tis an amusing name nonetheless, and in recent years the town has started really capitalizing on it and the curious tourists it attracts.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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21 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Unless you like traffic. 

We just go to the hotel and then walk the beach to the casino.  And there are side roads that most people don't take, you don't even have to drive on the highway.

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38 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

Guess where this is?  

I was actually there in late October, 1999.  Nowhere to live but the snow has to be unbelievable.Abol-Bridge-Katahdin-view-Kim-Pak-Loopy.thumb.jpg.a5d65345ee26381e08bc50e21865b922.jpg

Mt Katahdin.  Baxter State Park.  Also the northern terminus of the Appalachian Trail. beautiful place

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1 minute ago, Terreboner2 said:

Ding ding ding!!!  

spent time up there, when living in NH. (2000-2003)  at the rip age of 26 in the summer of 2001, I hiked from the summit of Mt Washington in NH to the end of the trail on Katahdin.  15-16 days I believe. took our time

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6 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Anything thing can happen when an ensemble has a pattern like this 10 days out. 1675101600-fCL3R4biYAQ.png

Perhaps we will get a Slushy Inch!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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43/33 near me today. I had a decent amount of frost this morning, but no freeze. This location did pull off a freeze (32) on the second, so not totally skunked this month. 

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2022-23 Winter:

11/29: .25" + 1" = 1.25" | 11/30: .25"

12/2: .2" + .5" = .7" | 12/3: .2" | 12/4: trace

12/18: .4" | 12/19: .2" + .8" = 1.0" | 12/20: .2 + 1.5" = 1.7

Total: 5.5"

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

This.

March will probably be the best “winter” month here.

March 2022 did give me a good snowstorm mid month but its a roller coaster of a month though. I guess most of the year is a roller coaster in this crazy area, but not sure locals would agree on March being part of winter. Maybe in NY state it is. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Winter

Snowfall - 16.1" (biggest storm 4.8" March 12th)
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"
Snow days: 10
First freeze: Nov 3rd

Other 2022 Stats

Thunders: 53 (as of 12/3)
Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 4
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1
Hailstorms: 1 (1/2" on 10/12)
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

'22-'23 Winter

Snowfall - 0.50"
First freeze: Oct 9th
Measurable snows: 1
Coldest low: -3 (12/23)

Thunders
1/3, 1/12

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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41/36 so far today…39 now. Coldest we’ve been since 12/23 easily. Felt chilly for the first time in awhile. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-9

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-19

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-2.86”

Wet season rainfall-16.35”

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6 hours ago, Phil said:

This.

March will probably be the best “winter” month here.

I like Larry Cosgrove but He really got kicked by mother nature this winter.Hopefuly We go Weak to moderate El nino this summer an El nino with East Qbo would be the best winter potential since 2009-2010 2002-2003.

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18 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Just looking through some of these, 2008, 1985, 2002 and 1954 look like huge snow dumps for @SilverFallsAndrew

Not many good dates on that list for up here anyway…At least in my lifetime. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

1954 looks like it would've buried you if we go that far back!
image.thumb.png.05ea3455c8b6ed9ccc2b224f145f5e0f.png
image.thumb.png.ae5617a8f7bf454a92d9e035f287afa7.png

I will take that one then!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Maine Coast. A bit of a move, but you would not have to give up snow.

Maine coast is amazing, both in winter and summer.

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2 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

March 2022 did give me a good snowstorm mid month but its a roller coaster of a month though. I guess most of the year is a roller coaster in this crazy area, but not sure locals would agree on March being part of winter. Maybe in NY state it is. 

We average more snowfall in March than December. If March isn’t a winter month, then December isn’t a winter month either.

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3 hours ago, AbbyJr said:

Unless the models are just confused because of the SSW, it looks like any intrusion of arctic air into the PNW would be brief based on long range models. What are your thoughts?

Too early to tell. This isn’t like 2018/19 or 2017/18 which saw a strong W2 component with a quick destruction of the PV. And the warm/shallow tropical tropopause will have to be overcome before the MJO responds.

So it’s probably going to be a slower transition into the “good” pattern this time, but should get there sometime in early February. 

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37 minutes ago, weatherfan2012 said:

I like Larry Cosgrove but He really got kicked by mother nature this winter.Hopefuly We go Weak to moderate El nino this summer an El nino with East Qbo would be the best winter potential since 2009-2010 2002-2003.

Yeah, though I’m not certain El Niño will develop this year. Could be a multiyear transition out of this La Niña and into El Niño. Analogous to the transitions from 2000/01-2002/03 and 1955/56-1957/58.

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30 minutes ago, Phil said:

Too early to tell. This isn’t like 2018/19 or 2017/18 which saw a strong W2 component with a quick destruction of the PV. And the warm/shallow tropical tropopause will have to be overcome before the MJO responds.

So it’s probably going to be a slower transition into the “good” pattern this time, but should get there sometime in early February. 

Thanks Phil. It's nice that we have the base state in our favour. -ENSO/+QBO combos usually favour the PNW for cold. The SSW is just extra help. Hopefully it all works out and we can get another cold/snowy pattern here.

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28 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah, though I’m not certain El Niño will develop this year. Could be a multiyear transition out of this La Niña and into El Niño. Analogous to the transitions from 2000/01-2002/03 and 1955/56-1957/58.

 Very possable it has to be frustrating to be a promet trying to sort this all out with models constantly showing El nino only to be delayed I think that's what burned Cosgrove he went with Data ending la nina to soon.

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