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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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Today was the 17th day at 50+ at SEA since Christmas Eve... which is 70% of the days.     Coolest high temp in that period was 46.     12Z ECMWF showed Friday through next Tuesday will be around 50ish as well.     

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Today was the 17th day at 50+ at SEA since Christmas Eve... which is 70% of the days.     Coolest high temp in that period was 46.     12Z ECMWF showed Friday through next Tuesday will be around 50ish as well.     

2005-2006 managed 21/28 50+ beginning 12/20 and ending today. Coincidentally, also a min/maxima of 46.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Today was the 17th day at 50+ at SEA since Christmas Eve... which is 70% of the days.     Coolest high temp in that period was 46.     12Z ECMWF showed Friday through next Tuesday will be around 50ish as well.     

13th day above 50 here at PDX. If you include Christmas Eve then the coldest high in that time period was 35, but since Christmas day it was 43. Gorge helped us stay a bit cooler earlier which was nice, our max this month is only 54 so far which is actually the coolest since 2017, though it's still been just consistently very mild this month.

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10 minutes ago, Doinko said:

February 2006

Bone dry here with that event... sunny and windy.    

6 days of 40s/20s with the coldest day of 35/17 in the middle.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Today was the 17th day at 50+ at SEA since Christmas Eve... which is 70% of the days.     Coolest high temp in that period was 46.     12Z ECMWF showed Friday through next Tuesday will be around 50ish as well.     

Chilly day here, 44 for a high after 39 low. The difference between here and Seattle area the last few weeks is remarkable. 

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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The MJO wave is just really emerging now so we'll see how the models react to it once it really gets cranking over the next couple of days.

Also...the ECMWF and GFS both advertise a very significant SSW over the next 10 days now FWIW.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Chilly day here, 44 for a high after 39 low. The difference between here and Seattle area the last few weeks is remarkable. 

It's at least cooler everywhere now.  I managed to remain below 50 the last two days.

It's not the big deal Tim is trying to imply anyway.  Much of the country has been a huge torch with lots of warmth this month.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

The MJO wave is just really emerging now so we'll see how the models react to it once it really gets cranking over the next couple of days.

Also...the ECMWF and GFS both advertise a very significant SSW over the next 10 days now FWIW.

I fully expect a sudden change in the models sometime in the next few days. Once the models get a grip on the retrograde and how that will happen the flood gates will open for the cold air.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's at least cooler everywhere now.  I managed to remain below 50 the last two days.

It's not the big deal Tim is trying to imply anyway.  Much of the country has been a huge torch with lots of warmth this month.

😀

There is no implying going on... just straight up stats.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I fully expect a sudden change in the models sometime in the next few days. Once the models get a grip on the retrograde and how that will happen the flood gates will open for the cold air.

Not that the models have been all that bad anyway.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

😀

There is no implying going on... just straight up stats.   

True.  But I know you're trying to rub it in.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

True.  But I know you're trying to rub it in.

Ehhh... its pretty interesting.     Long run of cold and now long run of warm.   

But you did say on the Monday right after Christmas that 50s were all done... and here we are 3 weeks later.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Ehhh...  its pretty interesting.     Long run of cold and now long run of warm.  

But you did say on the Monday right after Christmas that 50s were all done... and here we are 3 weeks later.   

I was just saying what the models were showing at the time.  I knew it was going to be ugly east of Puget Sound with that endless mixing from the east winds.  I'm thankful that is over.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Down to 32F here this evening.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was just saying what the models were showing at the time.  I knew it was going to be ugly east of Puget Sound with that endless mixing from the east winds.  I'm thankful that is over.

That’s one of Tim’s favorites!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was just saying what the models were showing at the time.  I knew it was going to be ugly east of Puget Sound with that endless mixing from the east winds.  I'm thankful that is over.

I know...we all do that.  And it usually doesn't work out.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

True, but I meant we should start to see some silly good runs coming up very soon. 

That is my guess too.  That happened in December 2021 and last month as well.   Lots of blocking scenarios being shown in the models and then all of a sudden it locks in on something big.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Soon we will see the real

deal. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

The Central Sierra snow lab just had their snowiest Nov-Jan on record. Barely beating out 1994-1995. Not sure if that  helps you guys analog wise? 

Up here Feb 1995 shut down but March 1995 was crazy cold and snowy. 

How much snow do u have on the ground rn?

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4 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

The Central Sierra snow lab just had their snowiest Nov-Jan on record. Barely beating out 1994-1995. Not sure if that  helps you guys analog wise? 

Up here Feb 1995 shut down but March 1995 was crazy cold and snowy. 

Wow... behaving like a Nino.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Australian Open in Melbourne having issues with heat... it was 100 degrees today (which is tomorrow).

But just noticed their all time high is 116 in 2009... so this is not a big deal.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

The Central Sierra snow lab just had their snowiest Nov-Jan on record. Barely beating out 1994-1995. Not sure if that  helps you guys analog wise? 

Up here Feb 1995 shut down but March 1995 was crazy cold and snowy. 

Big snowstorm in Portland in February 1995 but then the rest of the month kind of torched

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