PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Slushy Inch]

Watching for snowflakes tomorrow.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

38F and pleasant. Smoking on the porch under a cloudy inversion.

I've noticed no matter the temperature or overall weather, your observations include "pleasant" if you're smoking. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

You know it’s been a loser winter when a 20 second snow flurry grabs your attention. Haha.

Literally the 3rd best snow “event” so far this winter here.  I’ve got maybe 0.1” total from all 3 snow showers combined.

Only other winters that were *this* bad (to date) in my lifetime are 1997/98, 2006/07, and 2012/13. Even 2011/12 had multiple accumulating snowfalls by now.

Both 2006/07 and 2012/13 got better in Feb/Mar. 1997/98 was a suckfest all the way through, finished with < 1”. Hope to not repeat that.

My guess is this winter ends up something like 2006-07 for you.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Doinko said:

Not much here either. Maybe 0.2" of snow total and then some sleet and ice. What parts of the country have been doing well this winter for snow? The Dakotas and Minnesota?

Much of the West did great in November/December. Sierras have had a huge snow year so far.

Locally, we're running a little bit above average to this point for snowfall, but could be well above average by this time next week.

[umadbro]

As of right now, I am giving this winter a D-. 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

My guess is this winter ends up something like 2006-07 for you.

I’d take that. Though February is usually a difficult month here during La Niña. I’m banking on March.  

[WeatherGeek2022]

winter cancelled until further notice

[Christensen87]

I don’t know why, I just can’t get on board until GFS shows something. 

[BLI snowman]

6 hours ago, Kayla said:

Congrats on the new job! I've been interviewing for several new work opportunities. Might be headed to SE Alaska this spring for the summer!

Thanks. It is fully remote so it is definitely giving me some tempting relocation ideas, but we'll see as I get more acclimated.

SE AK would be fun. Ideal summer weather, long days and not hot!

[Gradient Keeper]

Dramatic improvement with the 12z ECMWF with the ridge merger, amplification of the block, did away with that nagging cut-off low quickly, and was not too far from moving into an arctic pattern in 7-9 days. The GFS Op is still lost, tragically so. GEFS, CMCE, EPS all fairly similar with handling of the block and its axis. Cautiously optimistic.

00z GFS in 4 hours 28 minutes
00z ECMWF in 6 hours 38 minutes

 

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Dramatic improvement with the 12z ECMWF with the ridge merger, amplification of the block, did away with that nagging cut-off low quickly, and was not too far from moving into an arctic pattern in 7-9 days. The GFS Op is still lost, tragically so. GEFS, CMCE, EPS all fairly similar with handling of the block and its axis. Cautiously optimistic.

00z GFS in 4 hours 28 minutes
00z ECMWF in 6 hours 38 minutes

 

EPS was meh. Still a chance. A slight adjustment and we get hammered.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

EPS was meh. Still a chance. A slight adjustment and we get hammered.

Quite a good chance if you ask me, which you were not, BUT yeah if you were. I'd even hoist a lofty ~25-30% this early in the game. Of course that still means we end up with a likelihood of a ~70-75% chance of nothing.

00z NAM in 2 hours 17 minutes
(Who's staying up?)

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Quite a good chance if you ask me, which you were not, BUT yeah if you were. I'd even hoist a lofty ~25-30% this early in the game. Of course that still means we end up with a likelihood of a ~70-75% chance of nothing.

00z NAM in 2 hours 17 minutes
(Who's staying up?)

I agree with those odds.

[weatherfan2012]

49 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’d take that. Though February is usually a difficult month here during La Niña. I’m banking on March.  

Interisting that Larry Cosgrove and Justin Berk both went cold snowy herr for febuary which gos against the La nina climo but then again they both went for the not typical La nina winter idea so we will see.

[RentonHill]

This feels like 10+ runs in a row that GFS Op diverges from the mean right around the 28th and is warmer than just about every ensemble member every run

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

bookend winter

snowy > thaw > snowy

 

at least over on this side

My wife's still mad about the fun snow we got in April due to messing with her plants.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

This feels like 10+ runs in a row that GFS Op diverges from the mean right around the 28th and is warmer than just about every ensemble member every run

I think there was one good GFS OP.

[Slushy Inch]

Little colder on GEFS.

[RentonHill]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

I think there was one good GFS OP.

ya...yesterdays 12z sort of looks like what GEM and Euro are trying to show

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, RentonHill said:

ya...yesterdays 12z sort of looks like what GEM and Euro are trying to show

Looks just like Euro control but farther east.

[weatherfan2012]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

You know it’s been a loser winter when a 20 second snow flurry grabs your attention. Haha.

Literally the 3rd best snow “event” so far this winter here.  I’ve got maybe 0.1” total from all 3 snow showers combined.

Only other winters that were *this* bad (to date) in my lifetime are 1997/98, 2006/07, and 2012/13. Even 2011/12 had multiple accumulating snowfalls by now.

Both 2006/07 and 2012/13 got better in Feb/Mar. 1997/98 was a suckfest all the way through, finished with < 1”. Hope to not repeat that.

The truth promets need to call for a warmer less snower winter then we will get hammered as there calls for cold snowy winters have not been to good.

[Slushy Inch]

GEFS sucks. I'll see everyone for 0z.

[Cold Snap]

Currently 48.1 after a low of 31. 40th freeze of the winter. Nice to see that we may see some flakes fall tomorrow!

[Doinko]

Not sure what's up with my weather app

 

[Kayla]

51 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Thanks. It is fully remote so it is definitely giving me some tempting relocation ideas, but we'll see as I get more acclimated.

SE AK would be fun. Ideal summer weather, long days and not hot!

Fully remote is ideal! My wife is fully remote which makes the SE AK idea a little more doable for the summer. 

Besides the scenery, avoiding the summer heat is honestly the big draw. I guess doing runs up and down to the Mendenhall Glacier will be cool too.

[Doinko]

Pretty cold today at PDX, 41/35. Next few weeks could put a decent dent in the positive departure for the month

[SouthHillFrosty]

The GEFS puts anything on life alert on late Jan 

[Slushy Inch]

15 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The GEFS puts anything on life alert on late Jan 

GEFS has been very inconsistent compared to EPS.

[Doinko]

Does anyone have information on the 1/18-19/1960 snowstorm? Looks like a pretty great event. 6" of snow in Hillsboro with 32/25, 27/24 and 32/23 days. 

1959-1960 would be a winter I would 100% love. Cold all four months November to March with a cold January as well. Snowstorms in January and then historic cold and snow in early March. Looks like McMinnville did wonderful that winter.
19.5" of snow in January (11" from the 1/18 to 1/19 event) and then 11" from the snowstorm in early March. Total of 30.5" of snow there.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

You know it’s been a loser winter when a 20 second snow flurry grabs your attention. Haha.

Literally the 3rd best snow “event” so far this winter here.  I’ve got maybe 0.1” total from all 3 snow showers combined.

Only other winters that were *this* bad (to date) in my lifetime are 1997/98, 2006/07, and 2012/13. Even 2011/12 had multiple accumulating snowfalls by now.

Both 2006/07 and 2012/13 got better in Feb/Mar. 1997/98 was a suckfest all the way through, finished with < 1”. Hope to not repeat that.

Keep whining. It worked for us in January 2019!

[NWbyNW]

Pretty blue hour/dusk.  Decided to wash my car . . . but I'm pretty sure it will all freeze over.  Oh well, it was brisk and the car looks shiny. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Nice sunset today 

[AlTahoe]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

You know it’s been a loser winter when a 20 second snow flurry grabs your attention. Haha.

Literally the 3rd best snow “event” so far this winter here.  I’ve got maybe 0.1” total from all 3 snow showers combined.

Only other winters that were *this* bad (to date) in my lifetime are 1997/98, 2006/07, and 2012/13. Even 2011/12 had multiple accumulating snowfalls by now.

Both 2006/07 and 2012/13 got better in Feb/Mar. 1997/98 was a suckfest all the way through, finished with < 1”. Hope to not repeat that.

Your guys warmest winter was 1889-1890 if I remember correctly. That winter was called the white death out this way which we are currently matching. 

[MossMan]

56 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The GEFS puts anything on life alert on late Jan 

The GFS needs a Life Alert pendant! 

 

[Meatyorologist]

26 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Keep whining. It worked for us in January 2019!

And whine we did. Reading back through those threads is pure gold

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, Doinko said:

Pretty cold today at PDX, 41/35. Next few weeks could put a decent dent in the positive departure for the month

Ended up with a 39/31 day here. Pretty chilly, coldest day in almost four weeks. Clouds aren’t clearing as much this evening though so we might have trouble pulling off another freeze.

[TacomaWx]

46/34 today. 

[AbbyJr]

Hey, does anyone on here have a link to where I can see the 500 mb pattern reanalysis by MJO/ENSO phase and month? Thanks so much. 

[BLI snowman]

24 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Does anyone have information on the 1/18-19/1960 snowstorm? Looks like a pretty great event. 6" of snow in Hillsboro with 32/25, 27/24 and 32/23 days. 

1959-1960 would be a winter I would 100% love. Cold all four months November to March with a cold January as well. Snowstorms in January and then historic cold and snow in early March. Looks like McMinnville did wonderful that winter.
19.5" of snow in January (11" from the 1/18 to 1/19 event) and then 11" from the snowstorm in early March. Total of 30.5" of snow there.

That was a great winter for NW OR and SW WA. Very gorge-centric with the Columbia Basin staying locked in the cold through much of the season and a great tap for the Portland area. A good example of the upper range of our potential in a season without a major upper level event.

The Portland metro had four different snowstorms in January, first a wet dump with an anafront on the 8th, and then two modest overrunning events on the 10th and 14th in the low level gorge outflow that hung around afterwards. There was really good low level cold air advection drawn in through the gorge ahead of the big storm on the 18th-19th, but it was extremely borderline up top. Thicknesses were around 530 for NW OR. There was a really big high pressure center in the Rockies but no significant arctic airmass to work with, so working a major snowstorm out of it was pretty remarkable.

https://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/get_reanalyses.php?lang=en&mod=ncep&area=na&yyyy=1960&mm=01&dd=19&run=12

That season also bookended by two historic blocking episodes. First with a big North American airmass in mid November 1959 which was actually fairly historic for so early in the season, but was overshadowed by its timing in the record books and coinciding with the 1955 event. SEA had a subfreezing afternoon high with the arctic front on the 15th, and BLI had a daytime high of 23.

Then the blocking episode from February 20 to March 15, 1960 was probably among the most extreme on record for North America. We cashed in during the early stage of it of course, first with a backdoor clipping in late February and then regionally with the really massive airmass in early March. Whereas the PNW modified fairly soon after the big overrunning storm on the 3rd, the East had one of its snowiest and most anomalous stretches on record. For example, in Lexington, KY that month was a full 5F colder than any other March back to 1888. Kind of was their mini-equivalent to January 1950.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Hey, does anyone on here have a link to where I can see the 500 mb pattern reanalysis by MJO/ENSO phase and month? Thanks so much. 

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, LowerGarfield said:

My wife's still mad about the fun snow we got in April due to messing with her plants.

Imagine witnessing the wonderful strangeness of the natural world and getting bummed out about it.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Imagine witnessing the wonderful strangeness of the natural world and getting bummed out about it.

June 2021.

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, Kayla said:

Fully remote is ideal! My wife is fully remote which makes the SE AK idea a little more doable for the summer. 

Besides the scenery, avoiding the summer heat is honestly the big draw. I guess doing runs up and down to the Mendenhall Glacier will be cool too.

Average high of 64 in July

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

June 2021.

Snow in April is a modestly rare, funny quirk of living at our latitude. June 2021 was an abomination of a weather pattern, and its magnitude would not have been possible without anthropogenic influence. Hardly "natural" or "wonderful".

[TigerWoodsLibido]

38F/31F for our first sub-40F high since Dec 23.

[Timmy Supercell]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

38F/31F for our first sub-40F high since Dec 23.

I assume no sub-32's there since 1/13/2017 still  

[Meatyorologist]

I joined here in January 2019! At the end of the month, right when we began to understand what we were truly dealing with.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I assume no sub-32's there since 1/13/2017 still  

Woah it’s Timmy! He actually pulled off a sub freezing high in December finally! 

[AbbyJr]

40 minutes ago, Phil said:

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

Thanks Phil.

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Snow in April is a modestly rare, funny quirk of living at our latitude. June 2021 was an abomination of a weather pattern, and its magnitude would not have been possible without anthropogenic influence. Hardly "natural" or "wonderful".

Your post definitely was a little ironic.   I am pretty sure we would have all time records with that heat spike even if it happened 100 years ago.   Just not quite as extreme.