PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Slushy Inch]

Finally, an interesting OP run. That Alaska trough is going south. Or not!

[Skagit Weather]

These were the snow depths at the ski areas as of January 15th. Not terrible, but 60-80% is not great. Fortunately the last couple days (and coming days) should mostly alleviate this.

CLIMATOLOGICAL SNOWDEPTH INFORMATION
NORTHWEST AVALANCHE CENTER SEATTLE WASHINGTON
DAY  15  MONTH  1  YEAR  2023 

DATA IN INCHES, -99 DENOTES MISSING DATA

            CURRENT  CLIMATE  PER CENT   LAST  THRU 2022  THRU 2022
            DEPTH    AVERAGE  OF NORMAL  YEAR  MAX/YEAR   MIN/YEAR

HURRICANE    39       67       58         54   118/2007    10/1981
MT BAKER     87      108       81         95   180/1971    15/1981
STEVENS      50       73       68         73   146/1969     6/1981
SNOQUALMIE   50       64       78         80   123/1969     0/1981
STAMPEDE     47       69       68        -99   179/1972     0/1981
MISSION      36       34      106         27    63/1995    12/2015
CRYSTAL      48       49       98         50    91/1971     3/1981
PARADISE     85      110       77        110   216/1969    31/1981
WHITE PASS   34       44       77         45    80/2000     0/1981
TIMBERLINE   77       98       79        107   170/1975    10/1981
MEADOWS      77       84       92         90   144/1989     0/1981

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

It's been pretty dry up here for the last 60 days and the Cascades are definitely starting to struggle.

Looks like we are going into a period of ridging in the long range as well, so those numbers are only going to get worse. Hoping for a wet and active Late winter and spring. Good make up time.

[RentonHill]

I tire of this

[Cascadia_Wx]

At least a chilly rain this morning. 43 degrees, about the same temp we saw all night. Hopefully the upcoming ridgy spell features lots of frosty mornings.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Finally, an interesting OP run. That Alaska trough is going south. Or not!

Looks like its not.  

[Tyler Mode]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

At least a chilly rain this morning. 43 degrees, about the same temp we saw all night. Hopefully the upcoming ridgy spell features lots of frosty mornings.

I'm actually at my low temp today, 44 after being at 48 earlier this morning around 4.  Haven't been below 40 since the 10th.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like its not.  

That's why I added the or not. The ridge over us is too strong, going to take time for it to move east and weaken before something can come south.

[TT-SEA]

Mid-winter dry spell begins after this current front passes through. 

 

[Skagit Weather]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Mid-winter dry spell begins after this current front passes through. 

 

It could end up being the driest January of the 21st century so far up in the North Sound. BLI is at 0.76" as of yesterday and models are only showing 0.4-1.0" of rain as we approach the end of the month. Today finally pushed me over 1" here.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

It could end up being the driest January of the 21st century so far up in the North Sound. BLI is at 0.76" as of yesterday and models are only showing 0.4-1.0" of rain as we approach the end of the month. Today finally pushed me over 1" here.

Wow.   SEA is approaching 4 inches on the month now.   Much wetter down here.

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

At least we are not Atlanta warm

 

We've lucked out here, one of the few places in the lower 48 not torching this month. DEN is running -1.1 and that will be dropping over the next week.

[RentonHill]

Day 12 vs last night

[RentonHill]

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, NWbyNW said:

I had no idea we were considered "Abnormally dry."  Drought monitor is showing much more color for the region then I expected including extreme drought for much of eastern Oregon.   I know it hasn't been as wet, but I really didn't expect this.

 

I've come to view these maps with a bit of suspicion. They almost always show the vast majority of the West as in some sort of drought conditions, and even areas that we know are close to normal for precip often show up as "abnormally dry".

It's definitely been droughty for much of the West in recent years, but I think part of the issue is these maps maybe use the past 50-60 years as baseline, and the latter half of the 20th century was unusually wet for many areas. May not reflect true historical norms.

[RentonHill]

Day 13.5

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Better GOA signal... but not terribly different than the current pattern.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Day 13.5

Beautiful. EPS has way better ridging. 

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Better GOA signal... but not terribly different than the current pattern.

OK. I guess 850s tell the story here then?

 

 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Day 13.5

Can't ask for a better GOA ridge signal than that at 2 weeks out! 

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Better GOA signal... but not terribly different than the current pattern.

Looks massively different to me.

[RentonHill]

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is significantly improved after 300 hours compared to the 00Z run.  

[Slushy Inch]

10 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Excited to see meteogram, anomalies we will get colder as we get closer with a pattern like that.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This just happened on one of my racks. I keep the cables greased also. Could of been bad.

[Slushy Inch]

12 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I like how it actually gets good while it's still January.

[Sandy rocks]

It's 38 and mixed here in Sandy. Raining hard.

[TT-SEA]

End of the control run just for fun... agrees on the GOA ridging.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snowing at my place. We won’t get skunked this month. 

[Phishy Wx]

all hail King EPS/Euro

 

GFS and GEFS are out to a 4 beer lunch per usual 

[MossMan]

Raining and down to 38 degrees. .79” so far on the day, 2.81” for the month. 

[MWG]

39F and light rain wind chill of 33F

[Christensen87]

Hmm, not really seeing this happening but who knows. Radar unimpressed. 

"But Puget Sound will pay the piper later as strong winds push down the Strait creating another line of heavy rain and wind shift that will move into the Sound during the afternoon"

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/01/a-superfront-will-reach-northwest-coast.html

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Christensen87 said:

Hmm, not really seeing this happening but who knows. Radar unimpressed. 

"But Puget Sound will pay the piper later as strong winds push down the Strait creating another line of heavy rain and wind shift that will move into the Sound during the afternoon"

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/01/a-superfront-will-reach-northwest-coast.html

Radar is also dead.

[MossMan]

It’s coming. 

[Deweydog]

Moderate rain.

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s coming. 

Really miserable out today. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Temp dropped 5 degrees here in Lebanon since 9a. 

[Slushy Inch]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

About an hour ago through Silver Falls State Park. 528 line strikes again.