Jump to content

December 2017 Observations and Discussions


Niko

Recommended Posts

Hope it is okay with all Mods on here for starting a new thread:

 

December will be getting colder eventually and snowstorms should start brewing for a lot of us on here. It will be a colder Winter for sure and snowier for some.

 

Lets all discuss and enjoy December fun...........

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After back-to-back dud winter seasons, many of us on here have been waiting for a real winter.  The month of December is showing favorable signs that it could be one that we will remember.....but for what???  How will we remember this December???  Who gets the snows first???  Will the Polar Vortex be making a visit sometime around the Winter Solstice???  IMO, this month will feature bountiful winter weather after we get past the opening 4 days or so of the month.


 


With the holiday season in full swing and Christmas decor on display, I think its time for nature to deliver the goods with a fresh cover of snow.  Latest 12z GEFS are increasingly looking more wintry for those out in the Plains/Midwest during the later half of the opening week into Week 2 of December.


 


Let's discuss...


  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Niko, I just realized you started a thread already...my bad!  I'll just delete mine and post here.

:lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That map looks sweet. It has me in the 2-4inch category. I'll accept that in a heartbeat.

 

Jaster is in the higher level color (3-5")

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gary Lezak sounds pretty pumped about December and he mentions their in-house model is very cold Dec 15th-30th.  He sounded convinced that the Vortex will be returning during this month along with many storm systems.  As for the LRC, he is still thinking 45-51 days is the cycle length.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

My temps get considerably colder after the 6th. Highs forecasted to be near 30F and lows dipping in the upper teens. That is a good 5-10 degrees below average.

 

Btw: Models have the MJO going into 7 and 8 in December which typically provides a cold pattern. Things are looking good.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gary Lezak sounds pretty pumped about December and he mentions their in-house model is very cold Dec 15th-30th. He sounded convinced that the Vortex will be returning during this month along with many storm systems. As for the LRC, he is still thinking 45-51 days is the cycle length.

I’m curious on that length bc if that’s the case than what happened to our big storm we should have had the last couple of days? Back on October 6th I remember getting hit by a big storm in Omaha. We had thunderstorms and almost 3” of rain. 45-51 days would have had something nice moving through between the 20-26th.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m curious on that length bc if that’s the case than what happened to our big storm we should have had the last couple of days? Back on October 6th I remember getting hit by a big storm in Omaha. We had thunderstorms and almost 3” of rain. 45-51 days would have had something nice moving through between the 20-26th.

Looked like as we got closer, things trended such that any developing lee cyclone was quickly overrun and suppressed by a trailing cold front from the primary surface low in MB. Between FH30-48, you can see the energy come across the rockies and try to get something going, but then gets shoved to the SW over the panhandles and dissipate. I have a feeling if the northern stream vortex weren't so strong and didn't force the crashing cold front, the southern branch would've had a much better chance to do something. But the next system is still there on the GFS, and the euro cuts it off over the SW. 

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z GFS still there with the storm. Boy does it make this thing a monster.

 

 

GFSUS_prec_ptype_204.png

 

Looks like it has it happening at about the same time the warm air is ushered out for good, too. Maybe we can get our hopes up that the cold moves in quicker!  :D

  • Like 1

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z GFS still there with the storm. Boy does it make this thing a monster.

 

 

Good. So when the SE and weaker trend happens, should still be a respectable system.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Niko buddy, here you go. Wanted you to feel right at home:

 

https://www.nymetroweather.com/blog/

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z GFS still there with the storm. Boy does it make this thing a monster.

 

 

That's a YUUUUGE storm! If only it weren't on a 200+ hr 18z GFS

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BAMwx tweet on Euro run from hr216 to end of run:

 

”This pattern is as good as it gets for the Ohio Valley to the NE for cold and snow. Buckle up!"

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MJO forecasted to pulse thru phases 5-6 going into Dec, giving us this look @ 500mb

 

 

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

#BSR map @ 500 mb with CONUS super-imposed. Iirc, SLP normally tracks SE of the low at 500 mb

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My early input is that I doubt I get snow out of the 1st December storm(5th). Any would be a pure bonus. I'd expect more of a severe weather event near the 5th and the widespread winter threat being centered more toward the 10th-12th as the cold fills and settles in for the month. Nearly T minus 4 days til official winter and really looks primed for a great start.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's hard to take a 10-day GEM run seriously, especially when it comes to weather out here.

Yeah the GEM has probably been the most unreliable model this year so far. Just posting it for laughs. BUT...the GFS seems to be more east with this run and a tad south even gives us thunderstorms ahead of it and light snow on the backside.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah the GEM has probably been the most unreliable model this year so far. Just posting it for laughs. BUT...the GFS seems to be more east with this run and a tad south even gives us thunderstorms ahead of it and light snow on the backside.

GFS is a scenario I can see happening. A sad one, but realistic. I'd love it if we didn't have 3 straight Decembers with thunderstorms. Oh well, at least it's QPF. Good for the farmers.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS is a scenario I can see happening. A sad one, but realistic. I'd love it if we didn't have 3 straight Decembers with thunderstorms. Oh well, at least it's QPF. Good for the farmers.

it's still a long ways out. theres even several ensembles of the GFS that have this thing hitting Kansas and Missouri with snow and missing us so anythings game at this point.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

it's still a long ways out. theres even several ensembles of the GFS that have this thing hitting Kansas and Missouri with snow and missing us so anythings game at this point.

 

Yeah, this system is a long way from decided. When the 17-18th storm was flashed, it was across NMI, and remained that way for several days. Then began trending to it's actual track well south of the state. Too early to draw to a conclusion at this range. The goal right now should be maintaining the potential.  ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Glad to see both the Euro/GFS still showing the Dec 5th-6th system.  I think the Euro is showing the more plausible solution and showcasing a hard cutter.  What is interesting, both GEFS/EPS showing some energy in the deep south across TX that has potential to develop and track along the developing boundary.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My temps take a plunge during the 6-7th timeframe. Warm air to the south colliding w much colder air to the north should have a low pressure area somewhere in that boundaryline.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've never seen the EPS show such a deep long lasting -AO in a very long time.  Of course, I didn't have the access to the various models we do nowadays but to see run after run showing such a strong signal for long lasting blocking is wonderful to see.

 

Joe D' Aleo had a nice write up this morning about the tanking AO and comparing it to the 2009-10 & 1995-96 seasons.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The explosive nature of the system north of Japan is intriguing and the track has somewhat changed from a few days ago.  It has potential to translate into a less of a hard cutter, but bc it tracks so far north it's hard not to discount that.  However, we have to consider the amount of blocking that has developed over N.A. that may adjust the track.  Should be a fun winter storm to track over the next few days.

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've never seen the EPS show such a deep long lasting -AO in a very long time.  Of course, I didn't have the access to the various models we do nowadays but to see run after run showing such a strong signal for long lasting blocking is wonderful to see.

 

Joe D' Aleo had a nice write up this morning about the tanking AO and comparing it to the 2009-10 & 1995-96 seasons.  

 

KBUF mentioning it as a key factor of cold-n-snow returning:

 

BUF NWS thoughts: 

After that, model guidance and the pattern evolution over the past

few days has suggested a notable pattern change taking place during

the second week in December. The strong East Asian Jet will weaken

and break down with time, and a longwave ridge will begin to take

shape along or just offshore of the west coast of North America. The

blocking ridge will remain over the North Atlantic near Greenland

and the Davis Strait, which will begin to project more on a negative

NAO pattern. The AO (Arctic Oscillation) will also become more

negative with time as blocking matures over the high arctic. The MJO

(Madden Julian Oscillation) is forecast to remain weak though the

period with little influence on the northern hemispheric circulation

pattern.

 

The combination of a weakening of the East Asian Jet, building west

coast ridge, and blocking near Greenland should all promote the

development of a longwave trough over central and eastern North

America during the second week in December. This should allow for

more cold air to flow southward across Canada and into the north

central and northeastern U.S., including our region, starting

somewhere around December 10th. At this time range this is all

predicated on model and ensemble data, but if the pattern change

verifies we will see a notable move towards more cold and snow.

 

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The explosive nature of the system north of Japan is intriguing and the track has somewhat changed from a few days ago.  It has potential to translate into a less of a hard cutter, but bc it tracks so far north it's hard not to discount that.  However, we have to consider the amount of blocking that has developed over N.A. that may adjust the track.  Should be a fun winter storm to track over the next few days.

 

That's (2) potent systems closely spaced just like we had in early October. Hopefully, someone scores flakes now that we're two months down the road.  ;)

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...