December 2017 Observations and Discussions

[Niko]

That is one juicy storm and whoever falls into that system will score big-time!

[jaster220]

Take it with a Costco bag of salt:

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh312-384.gif

 

Isn't that about what the Christmas '09 bliz did tho???  Fun to see the GFS finally toss a long ball and go gonzo with a storm in the long range..been waiting for that tbh. Now that was fun, back to reality..

[gabel23]

Isn't that about what the Christmas '09 bliz did tho???  Fun to see the GFS finally toss a long ball and go gonzo with a storm in the long range..been waiting for that tbh. Now that was fun, back to reality..

Actually yes, almost the exact same track with the retrograde back to the west a little bit; just like the 6z showed. We just need something to track, I like the nice weather but bring on winter already!! 

[jaster220]

It'll probably end up burying Chicago in the end like every other storm does.

 

Can you image if you added in the enhancement off of Lake Michigan?    You can't blame Tom if it happens, cuz Joe D. called it today. Tom will be an innocently #buried bystander! (he has a hidden snow magnet btw) 

[Niko]

Big change next week from what I am seeing from the models. By mid week IMBY, temps really start dropping. Although, they have dry conditions along w the cold, which, on my end, finds it to be dull. We need "White Powda" to go along w it.

[Stormgeek]

You said "just gimme something to track"..lol @ the GFS for hearing you and saying "Track this!" 

Hehehe. At this point I will take it. Sure it might disappear on 12z but just seeing a snow signature this season seems to be pleasing.

[bud2380]

There is some serious cold on the GFS from the day 10-15 time period.  Highs across the midwest mostly in the teens and 20s.  That will be a major shock after the 50s, 60s, and even 70s as of lately.  

[OKwx2k4]

That mid month system has my name on it too. Same scenario as first week of October and then mid October. Blocking was really late, pattern hadn't regressed at all then. Got a strong feeling that blocking won't be late this time. Both storms look like they'll run from near me to the GLs.

[Snowlover76]

The 12z loses it

[hlcater]

The 12z loses it

Thanks for the update.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Not sure how anyone here can be happy with how next week is turning out. Its going back to the NW fliw pattern western ridge. 3rd time its transitioned that way and its a scary trend if any of us want a big storm.

[Jaycee]

GFS doesn't look overly bad, actually. There's quite a few storms that are still showing up, it's just that it has the northern stream flattening all of them, which is overdone. How do I know? Great question! I don't, actually. But the likelihood of that holding up for a week straight with what would be a parade of storms seems over the top. But to reiterate, at this point, it doesn't even matter, GFS is flip-flopping more than Brett Favre did on retiring. It'll come back again.

[jaster220]

Not sure how anyone here can be happy with how next week is turning out. Its going back to the NW fliw pattern western ridge. 3rd time its transitioned that way and its a scary trend if any of us want a big storm.

 

GFS doesn't look overly bad, actually. There's quite a few storms that are still showing up, it's just that it has the northern stream flattening all of them, which is overdone. How do I know? Great question! I don't, actually. But the likelihood of that holding up for a week straight with what would be a parade of storms seems over the top. But to reiterate, at this point, it doesn't even matter, GFS is flip-flopping more than Brett Favre did on retiring. It'll come back again.

 

The real-deal systems are way too far out for any consistency. This going to be bouncing around for a long time yet, from mega-bliz to complete whiff. Y'all better be current on your Valium med's out there - you're gonna need it for this ride 

[OKwx2k4]

The real-deal systems are way too far out for any consistency. This going to be bouncing around for a long time yet, from mega-bliz to complete whiff. Y'all better be current on your Valium med's out there - you're gonna need it for this ride

Yeah. Next 3 days is gonna be pretty bumpy for a lot of people in model world, then the next 4 after that.

[Tony]

Yeah. Next 3 days is gonna be pretty bumpy for a lot of people in model world, then the next 4 after that.

And add another 7 more. After that is when I think the fun will start or at least get a little more consistency In the modeling world.

[NEJeremy]

This was posted by a meteorologist earlier today. Talks of the cold pattern coming mid month, but not conducive to big storms.

[Jaycee]

This was posted by a meteorologist earlier today. Talks of the cold pattern coming mid month, but not conducive to big storms.

 

Yeah, atleast he didn't rule it out, just said it was uncertain if there will be any. I honestly think it will be cold and dry for the Plains while Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan start to get clippers and then it builds south from there. If that's the case, then give me what we have right now lol I'll take warm and dry over frigid cold and dry.

[NEJeremy]

Yeah, atleast he didn't rule it out, just said it was uncertain if there will be any. I honestly think it will be cold and dry for the Plains while Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan start to get clippers and then it builds south from there. If that's the case, then give me what we have right now lol I'll take warm and dry over frigid cold and dry.

I think you mentioned in an earlier post the northern stream and nw flow is just to strong to get anything to form out of the southwest. So we get dry clippers or maybe some flurries and then stuff gets better organized/more moisture to our east.

[Jaycee]

I think you mentioned in an earlier post the northern stream and nw flow is just to strong to get anything to form out of the southwest. So we get dry clippers or maybe some flurries and then stuff gets better organized/more moisture to our east.

 

Yeah, that's just what it looks like tbh. I underestimate the powerfulness of that ridge down there, think about how much it dominated California a few years ago and gave them the worst drought in history. To think that it won't stick around, or atleast consider it is foolish imo, so I guess with my forecasts, long-range anyways, always gotta factor that spinning dirtball down there in.

[OKwx2k4]

This was posted by a meteorologist earlier today. Talks of the cold pattern coming mid month, but not conducive to big storms.

Tons of probabilities here but likelihood is that, with the deepening just south of the Aleutians, the trough over the central CONUS is deeper and has much more energy than shown. Plenty of heat West of Baja and in the GOM offer potential for a much stormier outcome from my area to the GLs-East/NE than what many are willing to lend their opinion to at such an early point.

[Jaycee]

Tons of probabilities here but likelihood is that, with the deepening just south of the Aleutians, the trough over the central CONUS is deeper and has much more energy than shown. Plenty of heat West of Baja and in the GOM offer potential for a much stormier outcome from my area to the GLs-East/NE than what many are willing to lend their opinion to at such an early point.

GFS goes full send in Oklahoma and Texas, then it gets ridiculously cold it looks like. Definitely a plausible outcome /s

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Guess everyone here thought it wasn't going to happen...that the low completely cuts itself off and now look, it was a trend lol. Still time for change obviously but thats dwindling 

[OKwx2k4]

Every HP center has been further south and stronger than mid-range modelling has shown since the end of August. At this point (way way early still), expecting that trend to continue. The Euro problem of overcoming mountains and and the GFS problem of blowing storms out ahead of the cold on the southern end give me more of a desire to blend the 2 outcomes at this point. The low isn't going to sit that long in the SW (Euro) and it isn't going to outrun the cold HP sitting over top of it. (GFS) Reality is likely in the middle and that looks pretty good from here.

[james1976]

Someone may score something out of that system next week but my eyes are set on Dec 10th or so and after.

[james1976]

Bottom drops out by mid month. Hope we can score some clippers. That looks like a powerful arctic flow.

[jaster220]

Tons of probabilities here but likelihood is that, with the deepening just south of the Aleutians, the trough over the central CONUS is deeper and has much more energy than shown. Plenty of heat West of Baja and in the GOM offer potential for a much stormier outcome from my area to the GLs-East/NE than what many are willing to lend their opinion to at such an early point.

  

Every HP center has been further south and stronger than mid-range modelling has shown since the end of August. At this point (way way early still), expecting that trend to continue. The Euro problem of overcoming mountains and and the GFS problem of blowing storms out ahead of the cold on the southern end give me more of a desire to blend the 2 outcomes at this point. The low isn't going to sit that long in the SW (Euro) and it isn't going to outrun the cold HP sitting over top of it. (GFS) Reality is likely in the middle and that looks pretty good from here.

Dude! Kudos on the excellent pattern recognition. These models are catching tiny glimpses at this range, but we're several days from anything that makes sense. But the known biases are still in play. The good trends earlier this autumn for systems phasing should continue imho

[OKwx2k4]

 

Dude! Kudos on the excellent pattern recognition. These models are catching tiny glimpses at this range, but we're several days from anything that makes sense. But the known biases are still in play. The good trends earlier this autumn for systems phasing should continue imho

 

What's crazy is that there's a second system up the pipe somewhere 4-5(ish) days after the first one and there's really no telling what is going to happen with that one.

[Niko]

Man, its going to get mighty cold next week, especially, by the weekend.

[buzzman289]

ROTFLMAO

 

GFSCGP_prec_kuchsnow_384.png

 

I love the 57" it shows in Sioux City. Of course Lincoln has to get the shaft and ONLY 19"!

snow hole in cedar rapids /iowa city lol

[Craig-OmahaWX]

snow hole in cedar rapids /iowa city lol

Thats usually over Omaha don't worry lol.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

The 0z GFS continues with the weakening of the southwest cut off low. 

 

[Tom]

00z GGEM...

 

 

 

 

 

Edit:

 

[Tom]

Hitting the sack, been a crazy day with work and I'm beat.  Enjoy the rest of the evenings model runs...they will consistently, be inconsistent, if you consistently continue to monitor them...lol

[gabel23]

[Craig-OmahaWX]

LOL Tom. I was just about to post that. When I saw the CMC my reaction was like this :

 

[james1976]

GFS continues with the arctic push. Some mighty cold air. Gonna be like Nebraska for a lot of us if moisture doesn't show up!

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Some members of the GEFS shows a track like the CMC. Now i am intrigued to found out what the EURO says.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

The EURO is out and while it doesn't dig a low in the southwest, it also doesn't cut off either. Has a storm but pretty weak. At least its a step in the right direction;

 

[OKwx2k4]

The EURO is out and while it doesn't dig a low in the southwest, it also doesn't cut off either. Has a storm but pretty weak. At least its a step in the right direction;

 

Yeah. Needs a bit of work. This really is going to be a tough storm for the models forecast up until right before.

[Tom]

00z EPS showing more members hinting at a CO Low that tracks up towards the GL's and strengthens.  It's showing the 2 pieces of energy with one tracking through the Dakotas and the secondary piece over CO/KS that eventually phase into a strong GL's storm.  Need to keep an eye on that southern energy because this season we have seen this being the main player.