December 2017 Observations and Discussions

[Minny_Weather]

There's somebody worse than my WFO??

At one point last year, one of the worst forecasters from there said something like "ECM shwng sn, so conf. is up that there will be sn"

 

For the record, GFS was showing nothing. GFS was right.

 

Oh and also, he's stopped abbreviating most stuff.

[Minny_Weather]

18z GFS shows 12" of snow in Laredo, TX.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

18z GFS did bring some hope alive for late next week. Even though theres only light snow here the kind of system it brought back resembles what we saw a couple days ago. Hoping for a turning point tonight

[Minny_Weather]

18z GFS did bring some hope alive for late next week. Even though theres only light snow here the kind of system it brought back resembles what we saw a couple days ago. Hoping for a turning point tonight

Many GEFS members are still showing a storm for here. Funny thing is, no members are showing appreciable snowfall for Sunday.

[Tabitha]

Snowing in the Black Hills @ 5:40 PM MST.  Temp 19 F and a light wind out of the north.

Most of the models have 1 - 2 inches here through Saturday, but one of the WRF Hi-Res models had 4 - 6 pretty close by...that one might not be using the 10:1 method...and pretty sure this should do at least 20:1.

Just 6.7" on the season thus far; so every little bit helps.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Many GEFS members are still showing a storm for here. Funny thing is, no members are showing appreciable snowfall for Sunday.

You mean Saturday night? What are you looking at? Your probably looking at Monday's. 

[Niko]

Snow in my forecast w a 3-5inch event looking good.

[Minny_Weather]

You mean Saturday night? What are you looking at? Your probably looking at Monday's.

Saturday night, early Sunday,same thing.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I wouldn't call 2-5 inches appreciable. 

[Niko]

http://i65.tinypic.com/10z1yd2.png

 

12Z Euro :lol:

[james1976]

http://i65.tinypic.com/10z1yd2.png

 

12Z Euro :lol:

So weird seeing maps like this cuz I was just out there 3 weeks ago in Massachusetts and it was brown and 40s. Crazy

[Minny_Weather]

I wouldn't call 2-5 inches appreciable.

After last pitiful season anything that covers the grass is appreciable.

[Tabitha]

http://i65.tinypic.com/10z1yd2.png

 

12Z Euro :lol:

 

I don't know; the NE has had more blizzards...right down to the coast...since 2001...then Carter has liver pills.

Down at sea level at Boston; the average annual snowfall the last 25 years is over 50 inches; nearly 10 inches above the long term mean.

Would not surprise me if it came to pass.

[Niko]

So weird seeing maps like this cuz I was just out there 3 weeks ago in Massachusetts and it was brown and 40s. Crazy

I am hoping that this system tracks more inland. I have a feeling this storm will have to be watched for some peeps on here. Still ways off, a week away. We will see what happens.

[Thunder98]

http://i65.tinypic.com/10z1yd2.png

 

12Z Euro :lol:

 

Snowmageddon on steroids

[Thunder98]

The Packers V.  Vikings Game will be cold!

 

[Niko]

A ton of moisture to our south. Gotta keep an eye on that.

 

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/_200w/Radar/usa.gif

[Niko]

I don't know; the NE has had more blizzards...right down to the coast...since 2001...then Carter has liver pills.

Down at sea level at Boston; the average annual snowfall the last 25 years is over 50 inches; nearly 10 inches above the long term mean.

Would not surprise me if it came to pass.

They really get nailed w big snow amounts in the Winter!

[Niko]

The Packers V.  Vikings Game will be cold!

 

Brrrrrrrrrrr! Bundle up!

[Money]

Gfs back south for next week

 

CMC came north from 12z run

[hlcater]

Gfs back south for next week

 

CMC came north from 12z run

Looks like it has a bigger storm though. So that's nice I guess? Just gotta get that HP to play ball....

[Money]

Looks like it has a bigger storm though. So that's nice I guess? Just gotta get that HP to play ball....

Yeah the energy was north and stronger initially but that 1044 H parked itself south of previous runs and suppressed it

[james1976]

Yup way too much cold air. Pushing everything south.

[Tabitha]

They really get nailed w big snow amounts in the Winter!

 

In 2014-15 the Logan Airport right on the Boston Harbor (sea level) had 110.6 inches of snow.

 

Here the snow growth is soo bad right now that I think I have freezing drizzle and a temperature of about 11 F.

 

A salter came through an hour or so ago and the blacktop on the road is still wet...yes wet...with a temp of 11 F.

 

You can't make this stuff up...

[gabel23]

I would like to see that foot plus get nudged over to the central part of the US! This storm has shown up in the long range for consecutive runs now. It looks to me like we might have a biggy next week somewhere in the lower 48.....

[Tabitha]

I could be wrong, but I think Kuchera only factors in temps at the surface and ignores temperatures in the clouds (where the precip is created) and therefore is not the best device for snow prediction.

 

Edit: The freezing drizzle here seems to be going over to light snow and the road is getting covered @ 10:30 MST.  So far less than an inch of snow today.

 

Visibility is poor; but due to fog and not snow.  There's practically an inversion here as the temp @ 850 mb is not too different from that at the surface...and snow growth suffers if there is not a steep drop in temp as one goes higher up.

 

As a general rule, the air cools about 1 F for every 300 feet you go up...but with an inversion, it is often coldest at 2m.

 

An inversion creates stability, and puts a cap on rising air...thus badly inhibiting the formation of clouds and rain or snow.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Welp. I must say..not feeling too jolly about late next week. Gfs and cmc step back again

[Minny_Weather]

I could be wrong, but I think Kuchera only factors in temps at the surface and ignores temperatures in the clouds (where the precip is created) and therefore is not the best device for snow prediction.

 

Edit: The freezing drizzle here seems to be going over to light snow and the road is getting covered @ 10:30 MST. So far less than an inch of snow today.

Yeah it definitely has its flaws, but I mainly use it because of the fact that 10:1 maps are obviously the exact same ratio, where Kuchera is more fluid, so it'll at least give a general idea.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I use this and it has not proven me wrong

 

 

http://www.hudsonvalleyweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/snow-ratio-chart.png

[Minny_Weather]

I use this and it has not proven me wrong

 

 

http://www.hudsonvalleyweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/snow-ratio-chart.png

We had one snowfall last year (12/3) where one of the local mets melted down the snow and got a 6:1 ratio.

[Tabitha]

Yeah it definitely has its flaws, but I mainly use it because of the fact that 10:1 maps are obviously the exact same ratio, where Kuchera is more fluid, so it'll at least give a general idea.

 

Well, if all the Kucera maps from November 1st had verified; Lincoln would be working on its second foot of snow; rather than its second inch...

[Minny_Weather]

Well, if all the Kucera maps from November 1st had verified; Lincoln would be working on its second foot of snow; rather than its second inch...

That's because we've gotten very few flakes. Only snowfall where ratios would have made a meaningful difference was Halloween, where we could have gotten an inch if conditions were better (temp of 34, wet snow, warm ground).

 

If 10:1 maps had verified, then we'd be looking at quite a bit too. Can't blame our lack of snow on Kuchera.

[Tabitha]

 Can't blame our lack of snow on Kuchera.

 

I don't blame numerical weather models for anything...I'm just saying they don't often reflect reality...especially beyond 120 hours...and Kuchera exacerbates that illusion.

 

They have gotten much better in recent years...especially with temperature...but precip is still tricky for them in the late mid-range.

 

Even ECMWF...probably the best model...has had some tremendous failures with East Coast snow storms in the last 5 years inside of Day 3.

[Tabitha]

Here the snow growth is soo bad right now that I think I have freezing drizzle and a temperature of about 11 F.

 

A salter came through an hour or so ago and the blacktop on the road is still wet...yes wet...with a temp of 11 F.

 

You can't make this stuff up...

 

 

Several stations in western SD reporting "mist" at 11 PM so I'm not seeing things...

 

I think that might produce rime ice if it continues long enough...common atop Mt Washington.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I am hoping for some serious awakening of the models this weekend for next week. It's still 7-8 days away.

[Hawkeye]

Euro is still better than the GFS/GDPS through ten days... a bit south for my liking,though.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122300/conus/ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_234.png

[Tabitha]

What an amazingly cold run for ECMWF...Dakotas may end up below normal for December when all is said & done after all...

 

Edit:  Since some stations are currently +10 DFN; its close to impossible; but the numbers will certainly be knocked down quite a bit the last 9 days.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Euro is still better than the GFS/GDPS through ten days... a bit south for my liking,though.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122300/conus/ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_234.png

Obviously on the low side of things because of how cold the temperatures will be. Don't need much moisture in this cold air to pile things up quickly.

[hlcater]

Euro is still better than the GFS/GDPS through ten days... a bit south for my liking,though.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122300/conus/ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_234.png

I'd 100% rather have a system show up south of me in the med-long range than north though. Seems systems often adjust northward as time closes in. Also what craig said is true. With ratios, you can probably multiply that by 1.3 or 1.5.

[james1976]

@OK......you getting snow down there?