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12/4 - 12/5 Upper Midwest Major Storm


Tom

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GFS shafts Nebraska with the low pressure moving too close to us. I don't expect much from this, but I'll take rain at this point, so I hope we atleast get something!

 

 

EDIT: The clipper looks potent after this storm around 168hr, could be another good accumulating snowfall for MN. Looks like it winds up over N IL too, to atleast drop a few inches there!

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GFS shafts Nebraska with the low pressure moving too close to us. I don't expect much from this, but I'll take rain at this point, so I hope we atleast get something!

 

 

EDIT: The clipper looks potent after this storm around 168hr, could be another good accumulating snowfall for MN. Looks like it winds up over N IL too, to at least drop a few inches there!

 

Has my antennae raised..could be on the board after that one.

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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850s are warm at the onset but crash. Surface temps will lag a bit. I’ll be damned if I complain about ratios, but it may hold accums down. 2-4” looking quite possible at this point. Let’s see what the King says.

 

Would love for you and others get a thumping snow hit out west! 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Has my antennae raised..could be on the board after that one.

 

attachicon.gif20171201 12z 180hr GFS mb & precip for Dec8.jpg

My area as well!!! :blink: Pretty intense, solid precip.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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LOT's take on the clipper potential for Thur

 

the large

scale pattern will be one that is in general likely not supportive
of a major snow system through Friday.

However, it is one that will
likely have fast southeastward
moving energetic clipper systems over the central US and Midwest.
The most robust signal for one of these has been on the Thursday
night through Friday timeframe, particularly on multiple recent
runs of the
GFS (with some GEFS ensemble support). It is far too
early to have much confidence in the track and intensity of this
clipper low, if it even materializes, so for now have low
Pops for
snow potential to close the week.

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I dont buy this system going that far north. Many ens members have it further south still. Plus with the northern stream so strong youd think it would push it further south

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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No, I’m pretty sure he’s just happy there’s a storm to track even though it’s not in his backyard.

I'm too bitter from the last 10 years to be happy to track someone else storm lol. sorry

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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The fact of the matter is..this always happens. Blows up over us over a week out..then vanishes for several days then comes back and starts looking better of you then..BAM! moves way north again for one final blow and a kiss my a** at the last minute lol. classic

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Makes more sense than a track further S. #1- current snowpack.  #2 Climo. #3- temps really not that cold even behind system and if the Euro is right (12Z) torch by next weekend. Now the air mass pegged by the GFS by the middle of the month with a further S extent of the snowpack along with Climos-- that is the period to watch imo for something other then a clipper in the next 2+ weeks.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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from MPX:

 

Meanwhile the NAM/GEM/ECMWF all have a slower progression of this

cyclone evolution and for that reason they are a little farther east

with the surface low and snowfall, with lesser amounts due to

slightly warmer temperatures and weaker forcing. Really tried to

find the culprit between these different solutions, but haven`t came

across it as of yet because the mass fields between both solutions

are incredibly similar leading up to the deviation that takes place

Sunday night and carries itself forward through Monday.

 

As alluded to above, by Tuesday there will be a very strong synoptic

cyclone over Ontario, but that really doesn`t help with

preparation for the snow and wind potential across the Upper

Midwest prior. If forced to chose between the GFS and rest of the

model suite, at this point would prefer to side with this second

solution of a more eastern, slow surface track and development.

This brings snow across more of the region, but lesser amounts.

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The 00z Euro/Euro Control's defo band really gets going and provides the "thump" of snow for those in the swath across IA/MN peeps.   I like what I'm seeing and the chances for those farther north to get accumulations.  Both models really dig the storm as it tracks across MN and up towards Lake Superior.  The "surprise" may be once this baby goes neg tilt and how much snow can develop in the defo band as the system slows down.  Nonetheless, a fascinating and dynamic storm looking more likely.

 

 

FWIW, 00z EPS has grown the snow band back farther west across the Dakotas suggesting early development and a healthier storm system.

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My gut feeling is this storm digs/deepens just east of MSP or NW WI that'll be enough to produce a health defo band across the MSP area.  The energy from this storm is about to make landfall across B.C./WA and we should have better data in today's 12z suite of runs.

 

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/wcwv/6.jpg

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I’m not throwing in the towel just yet. I’ll wait for the 12z runs to see what they show. The Euro gives me hope but the overall trend is not my friend. I’ll take 1-2” at this point.

I think at the minimum you'll get 2" at this stage, there is room you can score more but we have to see how the higher rez models handle the system as we approach the 24-36 hour period.  I have seen this movie before play out and this type of set up has me more encouraged for MSP to get a decent/plowable snow fall.

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D**n, 12z NAM 3km gets it down to a 983mb with near Blizzard conditions just NW of MSP.  Hmmmm, while you can't discount this scenario playing out, I would still like to see the 12z Euro run to make any considerations of a NW trend.  Although, stronger storms do tend to trend NW.

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_60.png

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d**n, 12z NAM 3km gets it down to a 983mb with near Blizzard conditions just NW of MSP.  Hmmmm, while you can't discount this scenario playing out, I would still like to see the 12z Euro run to make any considerations of a NW trend.  Although, stronger storms do tend to trend NW.

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_60.png

Man, the NAM is hanging the carrot in front of St. Paul Storm and my nose! So close I can taste it. Heerrreee storm storm storm.

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Man, the NAM is hanging the carrot in front of St. Paul Storm and my nose! So close I can taste it. Heerrreee storm storm storm.

This thing is trending into a monster storm that ultimately ignites a winter pattern throughout our region.

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Man, the NAM is hanging the carrot in front of St. Paul Storm and my nose! So close I can taste it. Heerrreee storm storm storm.

Dat's Lolz worthy! Hoping y'all score something outta this.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Welp thats it, throwin the towel in lol. Maybe next month when it cycles back it will be further south. Sucks that its only every 50 days cause that only gives us a few chances this winter. What do you think Tom?

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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