12/4 - 12/5 Upper Midwest Major Storm

[Tom]

Welp thats it, throwin the towel in lol. Maybe next month when it cycles back it will be further south. Sucks that its only every 50 days cause that only gives us a few chances this winter. What do you think Tom?

I think you'll see something similar in 30-days.  This year there has been overwhelming support of a 30-day harmonic cycle.

[jaster220]

At Tom

 

Did you mis-speak there buddy? I don't think Craig wants a similar outcome, lol

[Tom]

At Tom

 

Did you mis-speak there buddy? I don't think Craig wants a similar outcome, lol

I know what he said, but there will be more forcing and blocking around next month and this will certainly alter the track.  This go around, there is nothing stopping it from tracking farther north.

[jaster220]

This thing is trending into a monster storm that ultimately ignites a winter pattern throughout our region.

GFS 12z now taking it down to 971 mb north of Superior! CF should be the real-deal Tuesday down our way.

[jaster220]

I know what he said, but there will be more forcing and blocking around next month and this will certainly alter the track.  This go around, there is nothing stopping it from tracking farther north.

Just messin' with ya my man, all's good. They'll get their storm at some point, as will yby! GFS all over the place with systems/placement after the early week storm

[St Paul Storm]

12z Euro keeping the system fairly progressive. Keeps snow amounts in check but also ensures this thing doesn’t take a hard left. I’d take it.

[Tom]

Wow, nice uptick in the snow shield and accumulations from the 12z EPS...trended back south from 00z EPS...12z Euro control looks great also for MN peeps.

 

 

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

Thanks for posting the maps, Tom. I only had time to check out the op run. Nice to see the jog back south on the EPS. Headed outside for one last battle with some leaves. Looks like I need to get them off the grass or they might be frozen in place for a while. Not good.

[jaster220]

Thanks for posting the maps, Tom. I only had time to check out the op run. Nice to see the jog back south on the EPS. Headed outside for one last battle with some leaves. Looks like I need to get them off the grass or they might be frozen in place for a while. Not good.

Just finished that same Battle! I guess my prior post was wrong, we are kicking off with a synoptic storm. I just had hoped for a share-the-wealth bowling ball storm ala Dec '00 but the (L)RC did forecast a Cutter.

[Niko]

Tuesday will be the day when a strong CF ushers in the cold, Arctic air, along w strong winds and snowshowers, especially at night.

[jaster220]

Tuesday will be the day when a strong CF ushers in the cold, Arctic air, along w strong winds and snowshowers, especially at night.

Yeah, today I completed my Christmas decorations and it felt more like April out there. Tuesday awta be quite the reality check. I liked this from APX:

 

"Fairly decent guidance agreement leads to increased

confidence that rain will have exited the forecast area by Tuesday

morning with cooler air beginning to quickly pour into the soon to

be Great White North"

[Niko]

Yeah, today I completed my Christmas decorations and it felt more like April out there. Tuesday awta be quite the reality check. I liked this from APX:

 

"Fairly decent guidance agreement leads to increased

confidence that rain will have exited the forecast area by Tuesday

morning with cooler air beginning to quickly pour into the soon to

be Great White North"

Hopefully...w tons of snow. We need a few huge storms to come. Havent seen one in years here in MI ( 18"+ that is).

[jaster220]

Hopefully...w tons of snow. We need a few huge storms to come. Havent seen one in years here in MI ( 18"+ that is).

Hate to disappoint, but just like Neb peeps don't live in snowfall heaven, you didn't move to Big Dog heaven. Actually, you left Big Dog heaven and landed in well, BD Pergatory! Detroit's only had two storms that big since records were kept.

 

Even my area doesn't get an 18+ storm very often. Went from '79 to 2014 without one. Heck, after two, I'm technically not due again til 2075!

 

Nonetheless, historical averages be d*mned, you could still score a great storm. Dec 31st '07 dumped 17" not far from Macomb. Proves it can happen.

[jaster220]

Meanwhile, back to this storm! Sorry for straying off topic Tom..

 

Idk how the Keweenaw avoids a direct hammer blow from THIS??

 

 

[jaster220]

And as the CAA works into the entire region, this just has nasty windchills written all over it

 

 

[Niko]

Hate to disappoint, but just like Neb peeps don't live in snowfall heaven, you didn't move to Big Dog heaven. Actually, you left Big Dog heaven and landed in well, BD Pergatory! Detroit's only had two storms that big since records were kept.

 

Even my area doesn't get an 18+ storm very often. Went from '79 to 2014 without one. Heck, after two, I'm technically not due again til 2075!

 

Nonetheless, historical averages be d*mned, you could still score a great storm. Dec 31st '07 dumped 17" not far from Macomb. Proves it can happen.

Your not disappointing.....but, No comparison w EC storms.

[Tom]

00z NAM deepens this storm nearly 1mb/hr from 18z Mon (996mb) till 09z Tue (978mb)...impressive...

[St Paul Storm]

3km NAM flies a 983 directly overhead and continues deepening into NW WI. Wowzers.

[hlcater]

00z NAM deepens this storm nearly 1mb/hr from 18z Mon (996mb) till 09z Tue (978mb)...impressive...

 

3km NAM flies a 983 directly overhead and continues deepening into NW WI. Wowzers.

Yea, I can't buy that for a second, especially since the NAM (especially 3km) has a tendancy to overly deepen systems especially when intense precip/convection is nearby. We've seen this in the past, and during tropical season when the NAM suite wanted to deepen almost every system to Cat 4+ intensity. It isn't as overdone here, but I bet it's at least somewhat so.

[St Paul Storm]

Yea, I can't buy that for a second, especially since the NAM (especially 3km) has a tendancy to overly deepen systems especially when intense precip/convection is nearby. We've seen this in the past, and during tropical season when the NAM suite wanted to deepen almost every system to Cat 4+ intensity. It isn't as overdone here, but I bet it's at least somewhat so.

0z GFS really isn’t that far off from the NAMs in terms of pressure and intensity. The Euro is basically the only one that isnt wrapping this thing up.

[jaster220]

0z GFS really isn’t that far off from the NAMs in terms of pressure and intensity. The Euro is basically the only one that isnt wrapping this thing up.

Euro goes 995 to 975 mb in 24 hrs. While not technically bombo-genesis, I'd call that wrapped up in my book.

[Niko]

My local weatherman just mentioned that numerous snowshowers next week w some possible accumulations.

[St Paul Storm]

Euro goes 995 to 975 mb in 24 hrs. While not technically bombo-genesis, I'd call that wrapped up in my book.

Fair enough!

[Tom]

All guidance is suggesting a track just east or right over MSP which isn’t ideal but bc this storm deepens so quickly that defo band pivots through and can lay down a quick hitting snowfall. NW trend is not MSP’s friend and that’s what usually happens with such strong storms.

[St Paul Storm]

Well, we won’t see much (if any) snow here in E/C MN but now have a chance of thunder tomorrow afternoon. W MN gonna have fun with possible blizzard conditions.

[Tom]

Well, we won’t see much (if any) snow here in E/C MN but now have a chance of thunder tomorrow afternoon. W MN gonna have fun with possible blizzard conditions.

I’m hoping you guys can score at least enough to cover up the grass! Such a great storm but the NW trend is not your friend ATM.

[St Paul Storm]

I’m hoping you guys can score at least enough to cover up the grass! Such a great storm but the NW trend is not your friend ATM.

Meh, these backside changeovers rarely seem to work out. I’m sure the colder air crashing in will be quite dry, possibly limiting snow chances even further. Just give me a few mood flakes at this point.

[Tom]

Meh, these backside changeovers rarely seem to work out. I’m sure the colder air crashing in will be quite dry, possibly limiting snow chances even further. Just give me a few mood flakes at this point.

If the NW trend ends up happening, the GFS won this battle 48+ hours out IMO.  It has been steadfast on the heaviest snows NW of MSP as the Euro was suggesting a bit more southerly route during this range.  We'll see how this ends up but there is still room for some shifts.  I still think if this bombs out you can cash in on the back wash snows bc normally when systems go neg tilt there is that "wild card" defo band and its always fickle trying to figure that out at this range.  Both NAM's are suggesting it coming near MSP.

[Niko]

Meh, these backside changeovers rarely seem to work out. I’m sure the colder air crashing in will be quite dry, possibly limiting snow chances even further. Just give me a few mood flakes at this point.

True, but you can end up getting a light snowshower activity and get that dusting in your neck of the woods.

[jaster220]

Nice to see the swath of WSWatches actually south of Canada, if not hitting MSP as was hoped for. I'm with Tom, and agree, it's these bombing storms that go negative-tilt that give a legit shot at backside wrap around in the path of the departing SLP. Hopefully at least a 1-3 coating to make it look the season!

[Tom]

12z GFS with a 982mb monster just north of MSP...the seasonal trend of monster GL's storms continues...

[jaster220]

12z GFS with a 982mb monster just north of MSP...the seasonal trend of monster GL's storms continues...

Awesome, and yeah, this storm cycling thru now with winter cold air is way stronger than the Oct version! I see MQT acknowledges my post about a pounding in store for Keweenaw peeps:

 

Special Weather Statement

National Weather Service Marquette MI

541 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017

 

MIZ001>004-009-084-032200-

Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Gogebic-

Southern Houghton-

Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Ontonagon, Houghton,

Hancock, L`Anse, Ironwood, Kenton, and Sidnaw

541 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 /441 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2017/

 

...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

NIGHT OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...

 

A strong and deepening low pressure system tracking from western

Lake Superior to northern Ontario Monday night into Tuesday will

lead to very windy conditions beginning late Monday night across

western Upper Michigan. Gusts over 50 mph are possible. Winds this

strong could break tree limbs and lead to sporadic power outages.

Waves building as high as 15 to 20 feet on the west side of the

Keweenaw Peninsula late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon

could result in significant beach erosion and possible damage to

lakeshore property.

 

Cold air sweeping in behind the system will change rain to snow

late Monday night. Significant lake enhanced snow and blowing snow

is expected Tuesday into Tuesday night, especially over the

higher terrain of western Upper Michigan. The strong winds, heavy

snow and blowing snow could result in hazardous travel late Monday

night through Tuesday Night. The worst conditions, with potential

whiteouts at times, are expected on the Keweenaw Peninsula.

 

Those with travel plans over western Upper Michigan may need to

make adjustments to safely arrive on time. Stay tuned for updated

information from the Marquette National Weather Service.

 

$$

 

JLA

[jaster220]

I miss the yellow Bliz Watch product! Not just from a wx weenie standpoint either. I mean, one glimpse at the hazard map could tell a peep that the NWS was expecting truly bad conditions, not just snow falling. Now, you have to go read the text to find that out. Was quite surprised to see how many are calling for bliz conditions and dangerous travel. Hope it doesn't take a tragedy before they re-think that one.

[jaster220]

Meh, these backside changeovers rarely seem to work out. I’m sure the colder air crashing in will be quite dry, possibly limiting snow chances even further. Just give me a few mood flakes at this point.

Looking at this, you have a shot at that!

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

Looking at this, you have a shot at that!

usa_ICast (4).gif

I’m throwing in the towel in hopes that reverse psychology also applies to weather. Haha. It’s all going to depend on how far NW this thing continues to trend. Could definitely see an hour or two of light snow here as it stands now.

[St Paul Storm]

A chance of thunderstorms tomorrow early afternoon with a high just shy of 60, then around an inch of snow tomorrow night. It sucks to miss the brunt of the snow but cool to have such a dynamic system rolling through.

[Niko]

I’m throwing in the towel in hopes that reverse psychology also applies to weather. Haha. It’s all going to depend on how far NW this thing continues to trend. Could definitely see an hour or two of light snow here as it stands now.

Every bit helps, eh!

[jaster220]

NAM32 drags a pretty large tail across MN

 

 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

NAM/4KM NAM want to extend the snow band further south and push it through eastern Nebraska down here. May only be a couple hours worth but just seeing some snow in the air would be nice!

[OKwx2k4]

NAM32 drags a pretty large tail across MN

 

nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_9.png

Looking like a solid line of storms down here. 2010 analog in play here? (New years eve 2010)