December Weather In the PNW

[Timmy]

The gem really went the way of the gfs. So much for the prime minister. More like the minister of false hope.

[BLI snowman]

You know it's bad when the GEM looks like that.

[Timmy]

It’s okay though we still have a 100% of an arctic blast this winter I heard.

[ShawniganLake]

28 with clear blue skies here this morning. Looks like about 6-7” of snow survived the melting and compaction yesterday. Didn’t have time to take any photos really but a took a couple as I went out the front door yesterday.

 

[Jbolin]

For the record... I don't think it was raining on one side of the house and snowing on the other side.   I think there was some 34-degree snow in the air last night and the lowest part of the yard was slightly cooler and there is a tiny accumulation there but not in other spots.  

I didn't say you did, your hypothesis does hold merit however.

[Timmy]

28 with clear blue skies here this morning. Looks like about 6-7” of snow survived the melting and compaction yesterday. Didn’t have time to take any photos really but a took a couple as I went out the front door yesterday.

 

C299F5D5-79B6-45F8-87E0-5A3F495DF303.jpeg

Okay Tim 2.0

[MossMan]

Sounds like its going to be a bad day of model riding. At least we are used to it now! 

[Timmy]

I can’t even begin to understand the differences between the 06Z and the 12Z GFS. How is it possible for models to flip so dramatically run to run? The GEM at least seems to have consistency going for it.

I’m guessing you missed the 12z gfs?

[HighlandExperience]

Sounds like its going to be a bad day of model riding. At least we are used to it now!

The GFS was never good. Best to discount and wait for EURO

[van city]

Okay Tim 2.0

You OK there? Did you take your pills this morning?

[MossMan]

The GFS was never good. Best to discount and wait for EURO

Sounds like we lost the GEM, though. Scary! Hopefully the EURO will look just as good or even better than last nights run!

[Timmy]

You OK there? Did you take your pills this morning?

your model got me in a bad mood

[MossMan]

28 with clear blue skies here this morning. Looks like about 6-7” of snow survived the melting and compaction yesterday. Didn’t have time to take any photos really but a took a couple as I went out the front door yesterday.

 

C299F5D5-79B6-45F8-87E0-5A3F495DF303.jpeg

Awesome! Even the snowman looks perfect!

[TT-SEA]

I can’t even begin to understand the differences between the 06Z and the 12Z GFS. How is it possible for models to flip so dramatically run to run? The GEM at least seems to have consistency going for it.

 

I can't ever remember so much model flipping in the mid range.  The models are basically useless now.

 

I guess some kind of weather has to actually happen.    

[Geos]

Sounds like places like Darrington got a few inches which was confirmed by cars coming west on HWY 530 with snow on them this morning when I was getting on I-5.

 

So did you see any snow last night?

I know it was too warm here. And I believe it remained dry.

[TT-SEA]

Snoqualmie Summit updated their base total on their web site... now 106 inches on the top.    Nice to see a 3-digit number. 

[Deweydog]

Check the CFS.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Sounds like we lost the GEM, though. Scary! Hopefully the EURO will look just as good or even better than last nights run!

GEM is not horrible in the near term. NOT epic but still hope and baby carrots

[Timmy]

Check the CFS.

Mlk!!!!

 

I have a dream

[Deweydog]

Mlk!!!!

 

I have a dream

White AND black drinking fountains will be frozen and unusable.

[van city]

your model got me in a bad mood

Then you should not look any model beyond day 5 right now.

[MossMan]

So did you see any snow last night?

I know it was too warm here. And I believe it remained dry.

Temp briefly fell to 34 and we had a mix of rain and big sloppy snow flakes around 5:30pm but then it warmed to 35 and was just light rain the remainder of the evening. 

 

Jake...did you see anything of the frozen variety last evening? 

[stuffradio]

Okay Tim 2.0

My roses have died, however.

[Prairiedog]

Wasn’t something good supposed to happen 10 days ago?

Thank goodness it's only 10 days out now.  Getting closer. 

[HighlandExperience]

Sounds like we lost the GEM, though. Scary! Hopefully the EURO will look just as good or even better than last nights run!

Gem still shows snow and mixed precip over Seattle area. It’s cutting it close. Eager to see Euro

[Blizzard777]

Daylight has revealed a tiny coating of snow in the backyard this morning.    The other side of the house has nothing though.   So we were right on the line!  

 

I think I need to move up to your area. Look fun and beautiful views!

 

Jim

[Timmy]

Gefs headed the wrong way.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Couple chances of snow around xmas and you guys are complaining about what could happen ten days from now lol. Even having the chance of snow before xmas or on is rare. 

[Jesse]

Lol..the WHEM meridional mode is out of control. This biases deep convection towards the NH, which increases poleward heat fluxes on the NH half of the globe. The opposite is true in the SH.

 

So does this mean you are backing off on your forecast?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Pretty cool link, I'm surprised it is free.

 

Thanks for sharing.

 

It seems to show temps in the 28-30 range during the first few hours of that precip. Would certainly cause enough ice accumulation to cause problems if that verified.

Yeah, it's finally good to have free moisture maps from the ECMWF.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Its better than nothing.

[HighlandExperience]

Its better than nothing.

That’s the first WRF rum showing decent snow south of seattle. Getting closer to what EURO showed

[Phil]

So does this mean you are backing off on your forecast?

No, but it does suggest a stormy late winter and spring for much of the WHEM, in my opinion.

[MossMan]

Its better than nothing.

Very true! And still time for that to improve! 

[TT-SEA]

Its better than nothing.

 

You are getting the Friday system in there.    Here is the map for just the Christmas Eve system.   Looks like our friends on Vancouver Island score again!

 

[FroYoBro]

Pretty disappointing that our cold/clear weather totally disappeared. I blame Dewey!

[Jesse]

No, but it does suggest a stormy late winter and spring for much of the WHEM, in my opinion.

Ok. It can be confusing when you throw things out there without adding in a piece as to how it may affect things going forward. I don’t think most of us have the ability to infer based just off of the technical stuff alone.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

As i posted earlier, Tuesday looks interesting. 

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous day in Seattle with a brisk north wind...

 

[ShawniganLake]

No, but it does suggest a stormy late winter and spring for much of the WHEM, in my opinion.

Still feeling good about early January? The euro ensembles look encouraging with blocking near Alaska. But Things don’t look quite right for the PNW blast.