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December Weather In the PNW


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Why is December always our best month. ;)

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Mark Nelsen just predicted no snow in December. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looking over Silver Falls weather data. They recorded 38" of snow last winter. Snow data can be pretty spotty from that station, but they did a pretty decent job last year. The only notable snowfall they missed was the one in late February. I got about 9" total from that and driving through the park that Sunday they definitely had a few inches on the ground with more to come. That was a very elevation dependent event and they are lower than me, but I bet they got at least 5-6" from it over a couple days. Add that in and they would have about 43" on the year as opposed to my 49.2" (My signature is off by 2" I just haven't fixed it...). 

 

One event they did incredibly well with was the Dec 31-Jan 3rd period. They picked up 14" in that time and reached a max depth of 13". Only 7.3" here with that event and 6" max depth. Just a difference in where the snow showers trained over that period, we had a lot go just south into the park on the 2nd and 3rd...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I agree with the gist of Mark Nelsen's prediction. The final few days of December might throw a wrench in it, though.

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I agree with the gist of Mark Nelsen's prediction. The final few days of December might throw a wrench in it, though.

Final few like final 8 days?

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Some backdoor cold on the 06z and then everything resets as the westerlies break through. That is one major cold wave for the country.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12/1/17 6z GFS 500mb Composite Analogs

 

Day 6-10, 8-14

Very nice improvement

 

Day 8-14  - The positive anomaly is forecast to retrograde to roughly 150 W with an incredibly amplified block anchored over south central Alaska. This would give southern Alaska very high 500mb heights. If the block were to tilt any we would see a major blast. In this configuration we'd likely see modified arctic air into eastern Washington/Columbia Basin. I would be more confident if we had a ridge over the southeast/midwest. Some cold years showing up! 12z GFS in 3 hours 31 minutes!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_06gfs610.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_06gfs814.gif

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Looking over Silver Falls weather data. They recorded 38" of snow last winter. Snow data can be pretty spotty from that station, but they did a pretty decent job last year. The only notable snowfall they missed was the one in late February. I got about 9" total from that and driving through the park that Sunday they definitely had a few inches on the ground with more to come. That was a very elevation dependent event and they are lower than me, but I bet they got at least 5-6" from it over a couple days. Add that in and they would have about 43" on the year as opposed to my 49.2" (My signature is off by 2" I just haven't fixed it...). 

 

One event they did incredibly well with was the Dec 31-Jan 3rd period. They picked up 14" in that time and reached a max depth of 13". Only 7.3" here with that event and 6" max depth. Just a difference in where the snow showers trained over that period, we had a lot go just south into the park on the 2nd and 3rd...

tldr.

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38 here with a nice sunrise on the way.   

 

SEA ended up at +1.3 for November with 8.63 inches of rain (2+ inches above normal).    SEA is also 10.30 inches above normal for the year of 2017.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The block later next week on the 12Z GFS looks much weaker than the runs yesterday.   More in line with the ECMWF.    

 

The ridge late next week is also getting shoved further west and tilting in the last few runs as well.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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I have a feeling we are going to see a lot more ensembles shoving those westerlies through in the long range. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Ventrice did say there could be a lot of volatility in the models during the 11-15 day period due to a storm in the West Pacific.

 

I remember you posting that. Would make sense. Also would not surprise me if the point of ridging gets watered down a bit per climo. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12z Euro basically keeps us under a ridge through day 10. Definitely lower amplitude than some earlier runs, though.

 

I can’t help but wonder if some lowland locations mix out and get pretty warm next week. To me this isn’t looking like the best low level cold setup, with a warm front brushing us Monday/Tuesday.

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12z Euro basically keeps us under a ridge through day 10. Definitely lower amplitude than some earlier runs, though.

 

I can’t help but wonder if some lowland locations mix out and get pretty warm next week. To me this isn’t looking like the best low level cold setup, with a warm front brushing us Monday/Tuesday.

 

 

It will likely get more and more stagnant as the week goes on... in true winter inversion fashion.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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In the climate department, we have an incredible latent heat release event ongoing now. Probably the strongest event since January 2013, from a subseasonal standpoint, and it's partially responsible for the upcoming period of wave amplification over the NPAC.

 

Under the antecedent -NAM, when the tropical wavenumber transitioned into a mode of constructive spatial interference approximately one week ago, convection strengthened markedly over the WPAC/IPWP, which extracted a massive load of heat from the Pacific ocean, releasing it into the middle/upper troposphere (condensation and crystallization releases latent heat).

 

This event has already dropped the global SSTA anomaly by at least 0.1C in just 5 days, and given the -NAM, which represents poleward transfer of heat/mass aloft in the NH, an anomalously large portion of this heat was sent into the NH extratropics, where it's now being emitted to space, as is reflected by the 1.4W/m^2 increase in the TOA OLR anomaly since Nov 18th.

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This latent heat release peaks on December 4th, before it starts to deplete, at which point the subtropics and middle latitudes will start cooling once again, while the equatorward wavetrain strengthens and destabilizes the integral of static stability in the tropics, restarting the cycle.

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A little sun to start off December here this morning... hopefully a sign of a more pleasant month ahead.

 

20171201_103250.jpg

Wet and cold up here...ugly.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Ridge appears to be retrograding the wrong way.

I think we have to put all of our hopes and dreams on Phil’s shoulders and hope he’s spot on about January!
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Having a family day up in La Connor...I cannot wait for a dry day. Ugly.

I just don’t get how someone could live here their whole lives and be emotionally upset about normal cold and wet winter days. I mean it’s such a huge part of our average winter climate, being bothered by it just seems silly. Tim’s a transplant so it’s more understandable with him.

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I just don’t get how someone could live here their whole lives and be emotionally upset about normal cold and wet winter days. I mean it’s such a huge part of our average winter climate, being bothered by it just seems silly. Tim’s a transplant so it’s more understandable with him.

41yrs of being wet and cold! I’m fine with a wet soggy November but it’s now December and I’m ready to dry off a bit!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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