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December 6-16 LES and Clipper Train now boarding at the GL's platform!


jaster220

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Biggest report and first above 4" so far from NWS site

 

NWUS53 KGRR 071922
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
222 PM EST THU DEC 7 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM SNOW ALLENDALE 42.99N 85.95W
12/07/2017 E6.0 INCH OTTAWA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SO FAR TODAY.

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
300 PM EST THU DEC 07 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 PM SNOW HUDSONVILLE 42.87N 85.87W
12/07/2017 M6.0 INCH OTTAWA MI PUBLIC

 
 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Per Noaa:

 

Current QPF forecastwith the amount of forcing with the system would yield widespread
snowfall amounts of generally 2-3 inches with locally higher amounts
possible. These numbers would increase if QPF trends upward, so will
need to keep an eye on the QPF trends as the event nears.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This weekend clipper showing the potential of a couple of inches here IMBY.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Might get an inch out of this system.  Not looking like it will be enough to cover the grass tips.  Prob will melt by Monday anyway so it'll be just enough to be a "mood" setter.  If anything, the Mon/Tue system could be enough to cover the grass around here.  Both 00z EPS/Control take a track a bit more south than the other modeling.

 

Here is the 00z Euro Control thru Tues....

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The EURO depicts 10 days of nothing but flurries verbatim.  Its hard to spin it any other way.  I dont like the signs of the pattern break down being pushed back

But hey Michigan does well. We need to reshuffle the cards here, or nothing will happen. In fact, I don't think CID has recorded measurable snow so far this season. At least most other places have that going for them.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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From APX - I remember my days living in the NMI snow belts when we'd get this kinda pattern it was always fresh looking snow OTG, a true winter wonderland up there

 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 336 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

High impact weather potential...Ongoing lake effect snow will be
enhanced by periodic snow from passing clipper systems. This could
yield some significant snow totals for some areas.

An unrelenting, active winter pattern for the Great Lakes region
through the period as a persistent longwave trough sits over the
region. A progression of several systems and repeated blasts of
Arctic air look to rotate around the trough at various time. A
clipper system will dive through the Great Lakes late Sunday night
into Monday, with 850mb temperatures dropping to around -20C or
perhaps colder heading into Tuesday. Snowblow, shovel, and repeat as
yet another clipper system rounds the trough Wednesday night into
Thursday, following a nearly identical track. In between these
systems, of course, will be ongoing lake effect...reinforced by the
periodic shots of cold, Arctic air. Northerly and northwesterly flow
snow belts appear to be most favored through the period. Taking a
cursory look at BUFKIT data and GEFS plumes, snowfall from the lake
effect combined with the passing clipper systems could be enough to
warrant headlines for some areas, but time will tell of course as
details become clearer in the coming days.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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From APX - I remember my days living in the NMI snow belts when we'd get this kinda pattern it was always fresh looking snow OTG, a true winter wonderland up there

 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)

Issued at 336 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

 

High impact weather potential...Ongoing lake effect snow will be

enhanced by periodic snow from passing clipper systems. This could

yield some significant snow totals for some areas.

 

An unrelenting, active winter pattern for the Great Lakes region

through the period as a persistent longwave trough sits over the

region. A progression of several systems and repeated blasts of

Arctic air look to rotate around the trough at various time. A

clipper system will dive through the Great Lakes late Sunday night

into Monday, with 850mb temperatures dropping to around -20C or

perhaps colder heading into Tuesday. Snowblow, shovel, and repeat as

yet another clipper system rounds the trough Wednesday night into

Thursday, following a nearly identical track. In between these

systems, of course, will be ongoing lake effect...reinforced by the

periodic shots of cold, Arctic air. Northerly and northwesterly flow

snow belts appear to be most favored through the period. Taking a

cursory look at BUFKIT data and GEFS plumes, snowfall from the lake

effect combined with the passing clipper systems could be enough to

warrant headlines for some areas, but time will tell of course as

details become clearer in the coming days.

Snowpocalypse!  Prepare yourselves... :D

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Closer to home, even tho headlines are a mix of WWA's and WSWarnings, some areas per the headline txt's will likely reach double digits, maybe double the best of yesterday's event, thus a solid 12" not out of the question. The synoptic qpf with this Clipper has not ramped-up for areas inland as hoped for, yet with Lake Mich still quite warm, I could see this thing "scooping" a bit more moisture across SWMI and possibly generating better totals than is currently being forecast. Usually when GRR aims low, the results go the other way, and vice-versa, yesterday being a classic example. The very immediate lake shore looks to get the best of all sides of this compact storm. Should really look like full-on winter around St. Joe by Monday  :)

 

GRR

 

20171208 GRR am snowfall graphic.png

 

IWX

 

20171208 IWX am snowfall graphic.png

 

 

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Closer to home, even tho headlines are a mix of WWA's and WSWarnings, some areas per the headline txt's will likely reach double digits, maybe double the best of yesterday's event, thus a solid 12" not out of the question. The synoptic qpf with this Clipper has not ramped-up for areas inland as hoped for, yet with Lake Mich still quite warm, I could see this thing "scooping" a bit more moisture across SWMI and possibly generating better totals than is currently being forecast. Usually when GRR aims low, the results go the other way, and vice-versa, yesterday being a classic example. The very immediate lake shore looks to get the best of all sides of this compact storm. Should really look like full-on winter around St. Joe by Monday  :)

 

GRR

 

attachicon.gif20171208 GRR am snowfall graphic.png

 

IWX

 

attachicon.gif20171208 IWX am snowfall graphic.png

Nice! :)

 

2-4" looking likely for MBY.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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..and BAM! it's winter

 

20171208 KBEH 1st headline.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Nice! :)

 

2-4" looking likely for MBY.

 

Should be great for the Christmas season, eh??

 

My local calling for 4"

 

Tonight

Snow showers, mainly after 1am. Low around 24. Southwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches.
 
Saturday
Snow showers likely, mainly before 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 31. South southwest wind 6 to 14 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches.
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Should be great for the Christmas season, eh??

 

My local calling for 4"

Absolutely. Hopefully, the next clipper early next week will be stronger.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Based off of the 12z GEFS, it is looking better and def better potential than the 1st one. If it can shift south some more many more on here would bode well.

Hopefully, it does. Lets see what happens.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Based off of the 12z GEFS, it is looking better and def better potential than the 1st one. If it can shift south some more many more on here would bode well.

 

Late season Clippers trend south, not normally so for early December. Look at tonight's for example. IND peeps were all excited that they were targeted by the models several days ago. But, as per usual, it'll be about 1 state north of where models kept showing it. In this case, I'm a benefactor, but mostly in the past I've been the cheated.  ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Well, after reviewing all the short-range models at lunch, they appear in pretty good agreement on ~ a 12 hr window for snow in Marshall. First flakes look to be around 3 am, with light to steady snow til peaking from 4 to 10 am, then a more scattered look depending on the model. Some, even seem to have a convective look with squalls around near the CF as seen on the 2nd Intell map:

 

20171208 Intellicast 24hr GLs map-1am Sat 9th.jpg

 

20171208 Intellicast 48hr GLs map-7am Sat 9th.jpg

 

 

EDIT: That main N-S streamer shown coming in behind the CF should be the real deal. Won't last too long but will likely produce 1+" per hour rates. Ofc, this is hitting on a weekend so I won't be here in St. Joe to experience it first hand

Edited by jaster220
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Well, after reviewing all the short-range models at lunch, they appear in pretty good agreement on ~ a 12 hr window for snow in Marshall. First flakes look to be around 3 am, with light to steady snow til peaking from 4 to 10 am, then a more scattered look depending on the model. Some, even seem to have a convective look with squalls around near the CF as seen on the 2nd Intell map:

 

attachicon.gif20171208 Intellicast 24hr GLs map-1am Sat 9th.jpg

 

attachicon.gif20171208 Intellicast 48hr GLs map-7am Sat 9th.jpg

Look at that blue color covering SEMI and SWMI. Gotta like that! :D :ph34r:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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IWX onboard for 1-2" per hour with the backside band

 

 

 

Attention quickly turns to lake effect snow event for Saturday. As
mentioned...lake enhanced snow should begin as surface low drops
into western Michigan early Saturday morning and winds over the lake
become northwest then north. Delta Ts still climb into lower 20s
while theta e lapse rates around -2 k/km and inversion heights above
10kft. Models have been trending toward possible evolution of
several mesoscale vortices as trailing surface trough slides south
across lake in wake of surface low and lake/land convergence leads
to circulation development. Pattern fits nicely with locally
researched Type VI development which features a mesoscale low and
vort center with an attached single band in its wake. Several hires
models trying to show this with strong 925mb vort center dropping
south Saturday morning. If this mesovort does develop it will aid in
enhancing snowfall rates when it moves onshore but at same time will
lead to more of a meandering and wavy single band that may bend a
little further west than currently expected.
Composite reflectivity
trends from hires models still show most of the single band
remaining over southwest Berrien, Western St. Joseph and central
Laporte counties despite the meandering nature. Models are in good
agreement that warning level snow will fall across these 3 counties
which were in a watch. Have therefore upgraded to a warning. Amounts
will still depend on the evolution and movement of the dominant band
but given the favorable environment we have been discussing along
with long fetch and pre-conditioning should see intense snowfall
rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. Total accums in the 4 to 8 inch
range with locally higher amounts if and where this band becomes
stationary. 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hearing chatta, that these robust bands are bringing some spots across the northern highlands 10+ inches since morning..SLP just northeast of them, about ideal conditions for general streamers off of N Lk Mich

 

20171208 130pm NMI radar.PNG

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Latest from IWX on impending Clipper! Sure wish I'd be around to catch the main band! TSSN may be in play, depends on if that band is a single strong streamer, or wavers a bit due to meso-low interactions

 

 

 

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 240 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

Remaining cold with the first widespread accumulating snow of the
season Saturday...

A potent and compact shortwave over eastern Manitoba will dig
southeast through the Great Lakes bringing a period of light
synoptic snow later tonight into Saturday morning, followed by a
dominate LES band to nnw LE belts later Saturday morning through
Saturday evening. Strong dynamic forcing will be enough to overcome
dry CP airmass in place, with system snow beginning later tonight
into nw IN/sw Lower MI, then through the rest of the forecast area
Saturday morning. Still thinking a quick 1-2" for most locations as
brief nature to forcing and dearth of moisture limits accums.
Scattered snow showers and flurries will then be possible into the
afternoon everywhere as the trough axis and associated steeper lapse
rates pivot through.

The main focus Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon
will turn to lake enhanced snow...then pure LES in the afternoon
and evening. The low level flow veers more nnw and then eventually
more nw, which will result in strong frictional/thermal
convergence along the long axis of eastern Lake MI. LES parameters
continue to favor good dendritic growth and the potential for
intense 1-2"/hr snowfall rates (near whiteout conditions and gusty
winds) within the dominate band. Berrien/St Joseph IN/LaPorte
still look to be within the pivot point of any banding
, with lower
confidence in surrounding counties given the potential for
mesovorticies to force a more transitory/broken plume. It is worth
noting that a more organized band could reach well inland with
advisory level impacts given 35-40 knots of flow modeled at 925
mb. Steepening boundary layer depth may tap into some of this and
create strong winds and blowing snow/low visby`s, especially in
areas under a warning or advisory.

Drying/subsidence/backing winds will take its tool on inversion
heights and bring an end to any impactful LES later Saturday night.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GRR's pm update and thoughts..

 

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)

Issued at 325 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

A low pressure system will move in from the nw tonight and bring
snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches to most of our fcst area by
mid morning Saturday.
Higher snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches
are fcst across our lakeshore counties tonight due to sw flow lake
enhancement.

Our previous headlines looked excellent and remained unchanged.
We decided to also issue a winter wx advisory for Mason/Oceana
counties for tonight due to sw flow lake enhancement (thx for
coord on this APX).

Light snow showers and flurries will linger across our fcst area
from mid morning tomorrow through tomorrow afternoon but with very
light additional accumulations. The exception to this is in far
western Allegan and Van Buren counties which will likely be
clipped by a dominant north/south oriented les band as winds
become northerly and h8 temps fall to -12 to -14 C in the
afternoon.

Therefore several inches of additional snow accumulation are
expected tomorrow from near Holland/Saugatuck southward near the
Lake MI shoreline. Lighter lake effect snow showers will linger
west of US-131 Saturday evening as winds back to the nw. The light
snow showers will taper off to flurries overnight.

A cold front will approach from the north and cause development
of light snow showers Sunday into Sunday night. Synoptic snow tied
to the next clipper system will not move in until Monday.

 

20171208 IWX pm snowfall graphic.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12z Euro showing .10 over NE IL...take it and run...LOL

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017120812/greatlakes/ecmwf_t_precip_greatlakes_48.png

 

But what can you fluff that up to???  Play the ratio card my friend. Globals on short range = iffy at best!  Looking at GRR's map, they must be factoring more than that one Euro run..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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But what can you fluff that up to???  Play the ratio card my friend. Globals on short range = iffy at best!  Looking at GRR's map, they must be factoring more than that one Euro run..

1-2" at best...I don't like being on the southern edge of clippers...I was hoping for the one on Mon/Tue to track farther south but that doesn't look like its happening.  It would have been a better "share the wealth" scenario across our region.

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1-2" at best...I don't like being on the southern edge of clippers...I was hoping for the one on Mon/Tue to track farther south but that doesn't look like its happening.  It would have been a better "share the wealth" scenario across our region.

 

Agree Amigo, NAM is most south solution, GFS tracks overhead or a bit north of you, and GEM's way north and more wound-up across the Straights. GEM would actually be better for LES/LEhS for SWMI vs a system tracking right on top of us. We'll see. Climo in early Dec says north is money for Clippers. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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D**n just east of me......but it's nothing new with LES....

 

 

WINTER STORM WARNING in effect from Saturday, 12:00 a.m. CST until Saturday, 11:00 p.m. CST. Source: National Weather Service Northern Indiana

WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 4-7 inches, with localized amounts up to 9 inches.

WHERE...Porter, La Porte and St. Joseph Counties in Indiana and Berrien County in Michigan.

Porter County from midnight tonight until 6 pm Saturday.

WHEN...
Porter County from midnight tonight until 6 pm Saturday.

Additional Counties From 12 midnight Saturday to 11 PM Saturday night.
ADDITIONAL HAZARDS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/ PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Storm Warning for heavy lake effect snow means
significant amounts of lake effect snow are forecast that will
make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel,
keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case
of an emergency. 

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10" Hourly rates.....can you imagine witnessing that?? I know it's Alaska but almost a foot an hour is crazy!!

 

Tom Skilling added 4 new photos.
7 hrs · 










Alaska has reported a record rate of snowfall rate in recent days. The Washington Post article which headlined a reported 10" hourly snow rate this past week in Valdez on the state's southern coast, was called to my attention by one of my Facebook friends. I'm posting a link to the article below. Valdez is the city at the southern terminus of the Alaska pipeline which runs nearly 800 miles from the state's arctic coast.



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Green Bay joined the WWA club. Up to 5" with help off the lake. First real snow for that area.

 

Oh, and was really surprised to see quite a few patches of my mood coating survived here in Marshall. Mostly on the shady side of the streets, or where it formed small drifts. Hope this Clipper isn't another fail, need to catch my sister from Baton Rouge on snow fall. Pretty embarrassing, lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GRRville, where you can get 10" overnight with a WWA

 

 

956 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST

SATURDAY...

 

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions.

Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with localized

amounts up to 10 inches, are expected.

 

* WHERE...Allegan and Van Buren counties.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GRRville, where you can get 10" overnight with a WWA

 

 

956 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST

SATURDAY...

 

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions.

Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with localized

amounts up to 10 inches, are expected.

 

* WHERE...Allegan and Van Buren counties.

Lol that's sad. Here, even if you have a slight possibility of getting 6, you get a WSW.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Just took a walk out around my neighborhood with the flakes flying. I may add that this is not pixie dust and have a nice fluff to them. It seems like this year there are more houses with festive lights. All we need now is a nice dumping of powder!

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Interesting from BAMwx on TSSN. Love the spike over Marshall

 

@Met_khinz

·

12h

Impressive elevated #snow squall parameter into Saturday as a clipper-like system moves into the Ohio Valley...heavy lake effect bands with thundersnow possible #ILwx #INwx #MIwx #OHwx

 

Was a short video but get error msg when I try to attach it??

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Latest AFD update from MKX:

 

"18Z GFS and new NAM and HRRR precipitation amounts are a little
less than previous runs. If the evening GFS follows, look for
mainly an inch or less type event. Up to an inch Fond du lac
Sheboygan and Milwaukee metro, with a little less in areas near
and west of Madison."

 

Why do I get the feeling this is going to be the trend this entire winter.  Previous forecasts were for up to as much as three inches.  Now, barely an inch if we're lucky.

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