December 6-16 LES and Clipper Train now boarding at the GL's platform!

[Tom]

18z NAM now in the same camp...hmm, might have some wx headlines from the afternoon crew...

 

[Tom]

18z NAM3km very similar....

 

[Madtown]

more interesting than a packer browns game....lol

[Niko]

This clipper is looking mighty fine!

[jaster220]

18z NAM3km very similar....

 

But for some reason, is very skimpy across SMI...go figure as it's often the most jacked-up model of them all. Euro very similar to GEM with a healthy qpf streak across SMI but places it about a county north, thus I vote GEM, lol. Also, the Euro seems to be missing the backside LES signature that's quite obvious on all the other models. Quite an array of solutions for a 36 hr time frame.

 

As for headlines, knowing my office, they'll find some excuse not to issue for mby. Their two faves are "long duration" and "moderate rates". Remember, we never got a WSWatch for an 18-20" Mega-dog. I get headlines (see Thursday) when I shouldn't, and vice-versa. Lol

[jaster220]

This clipper is looking mighty fine!

I'm crossing body parts that the more amped models win out, and we get the late-game uptick that is often the theme with classic clippers.

 

Was in South Kalamazoo area this afternoon. I expected to find the snow there twice as deep as here in Marshall, but was surprised to find that it was about the same. Actually, I prefer the covering in my hood to what I saw there tbh.

 

All in all tho, there's solid ground cover from Marshall on west, even in the open freeway median. I know Van Buren got hit good Saturday, so it's truly snow-on-snow time across SWMI. My commute Monday evening will have that winter wonderland flavor that I relish so!

[jaster220]

And with zero fan-fare (as expected) GRR completely down plays the synoptic part of the storm, going so far as to mention their arm wrestling surrounding offices into forgetting about using the very tools they've been given for warning the public! Focusing not on the widespread snows, but only on the backside LES. Winters just begun, and ive already had it with that office's total LES bias!

 

"Some sort of winter weather headline will eventually be needed for

this event for those areas. Further inland snow accumulations will

be significantly less. Thanks for extensive coord on the NO HEADLINE

decisions at this time APX/DTX/IWX."

[Niko]

I'm crossing body parts that the more amped models win out, and we get the late-game uptick that is often the theme with classic clippers.

 

Was in South Kalamazoo area this afternoon. I expected to find the snow there twice as deep as here in Marshall, but was surprised to find that it was about the same. Actually, I prefer the covering in my hood to what I saw there tbh.

 

All in all tho, there's solid ground cover from Marshall on west, even in the open freeway median. I know Van Buren got hit good Saturday, so it's truly snow-on-snow time across SWMI. My commute Monday evening will have that winter wonderland flavor that I relish so!

This area usually gets double the amount of snow you receive. Wow, shocked there was an equal amount of snow between both locales.

[Niko]

Jaster,

 

how much snow are ya forecasted to get w tomorrows clipper?! I am in the 2-4" category, maybe a bit higher, depending on where the deformation band forms. Close call for me....and Noaa explains beneath this post....

 

Still looking ata wide swath of 1-2 inch snowfall across SE MI with a band of
heavier snow around 3 inches likely with the deformation band on the
northeast flank of the low. Currently this band looks to set up
between M59 and I94. A lead leaf of broad isentropic ascent ahead of
the broader trough will bring light snow showers to the area
starting 15-18Z with the heavier band occuring between 21-03Z.
Remnant light showers will taper off around 12Z Tuesday when drier
air moves in.

[jaster220]

Jaster,

 

how much snow are ya forecasted to get w tomorrows clipper?! I am in the 2-4" category, maybe a bit higher, depending on where the deformation band forms. Close call for me....and Noaa explains beneath this post....

 

Still looking ata wide swath of 1-2 inch snowfall across SE MI with a band of

heavier snow around 3 inches likely with the deformation band on the

northeast flank of the low. Currently this band looks to set up

between M59 and I94. A lead leaf of broad isentropic ascent ahead of

the broader trough will bring light snow showers to the area

starting 15-18Z with the heavier band occuring between 21-03Z.

Remnant light showers will taper off around 12Z Tuesday when drier

air moves in.

Looks like 2-3" attm per my local text. I like DTX's wording for that heavier band. Hoping it comes just half a county south tho, for obvious reasons, then we'd both be "in the goods"

[jaster220]

Many hrs old already, but this from IWX is a much better disco on the clipper than my office had:

 

 

 

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Evening)

Issued at 246 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

 

A minor low amplitude disturbance, embedded in northwest flow,

will force a weak sfc trough the area early this evening. Nothing

more than clouds and few flurries expected with this wave given

weak forcing and shallow moisture profile.

 

A more robust shortwave will drop southeast into the Northern

Plains tonight and into the Lower Great Lakes by later Monday/Monday

evening. Leading WAA/isentropic ascent wing will focus an area of

light snow on the nose of this warm advection into WI/MI Monday

morning through mid afternoon. The southern edge of this precip

shield will likely clip our far northern zones, with areas

along/south of US 30 likely remaining mainly dry. Deeper ascent

with the main vort max...and tightening low level baroclinic

response... should promote full top-down saturation and chances

for a healthier fgen band to set up across lower MI (and possibly

far nrn IN/nw OH) in the afternoon and evening, though where

exactly this sets up is still uncertain. Pacific origin with

850-700 mb layer specific humidities nearing 3 g/kg enough to

support a quick 1-3" of snow and difficult travel where banding

materializes.

[Niko]

Looks like 2-3" attm per my local text. I like DTX's wording for that heavier band. Hoping it comes just half a county south tho, for obvious reasons, then we'd both be "in the goods"

I think we both bold well for tomorrows snow-event.

[Niko]

Many hrs old already, but this from IWX is a much better disco on the clipper than my office had:

 

 

 

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Evening)

Issued at 246 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

 

A minor low amplitude disturbance, embedded in northwest flow,

will force a weak sfc trough the area early this evening. Nothing

more than clouds and few flurries expected with this wave given

weak forcing and shallow moisture profile.

 

A more robust shortwave will drop southeast into the Northern

Plains tonight and into the Lower Great Lakes by later Monday/Monday

evening. Leading WAA/isentropic ascent wing will focus an area of

light snow on the nose of this warm advection into WI/MI Monday

morning through mid afternoon. The southern edge of this precip

shield will likely clip our far northern zones, with areas

along/south of US 30 likely remaining mainly dry. Deeper ascent

with the main vort max...and tightening low level baroclinic

response... should promote full top-down saturation and chances

for a healthier fgen band to set up across lower MI (and possibly

far nrn IN/nw OH) in the afternoon and evening, though where

exactly this sets up is still uncertain. Pacific origin with

850-700 mb layer specific humidities nearing 3 g/kg enough to

support a quick 1-3" of snow and difficult travel where banding

materializes.

That is a good start.

[jaster220]

0z NAM laid an egg on Tom's hopes tho! Izzi @ LOT is buying what it's selling, says the last minute north trend's legit. As I've mentioned, it's early Dec, climo doesn't favor suppressed-n-south outcomes. Heck, NAM even has me dry-slotted, but actually looks better for SEMI. Niko's storm me thinks..

[Tom]

0z NAM laid an egg on Tom's hopes tho! Izzi @ LOT is buying what it's selling, says the last minute north trend's legit. As I've mentioned, it's early Dec, climo doesn't favor suppressed-n-south outcomes. Heck, NAM even has me dry-slotted, but actually looks better for SEMI. Niko's storm me thinks..

Yup, that's why I dislike being on the southern end of any clipper track.  The lack of any Greenland block is also a factor for a northerly nudge.

[Niko]

0z NAM laid an egg on Tom's hopes tho! Izzi @ LOT is buying what it's selling, says the last minute north trend's legit. As I've mentioned, it's early Dec, climo doesn't favor suppressed-n-south outcomes. Heck, NAM even has me dry-slotted, but actually looks better for SEMI. Niko's storm me thinks..

Lets hope so!

[Madtown]

wow...local met just removed all the snow...how far north did this thing go?

[VMB443]

wow...local met just removed all the snow...how far north did this thing go?

Light snow here right now - they are suggesting 2-3 inches in a Madison to Milwaukee swath this afternoon. We’ll see of course.

[Tom]

Light snow here right now - they are suggesting 2-3 inches in a Madison to Milwaukee swath this afternoon. We’ll see of course.

00z Euro looks about right...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017121100/greatlakes/ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_36.png

[jaster220]

00z Euro looks about right...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017121100/greatlakes/ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_36.png

 

"Snow-on-snow watch" in effect for mby!  I was hopeful with this system having better ingredients to exceed my score from Saturday, not the other direction, lol. Guess I'd take another 1.5" at home, even tho a melt-off is looming. Gotta take snow when you're given the gift! Many others nasso lucky, I'm fully aware..

 

So I turn in last night with zero headlines, and don't take time early in the morning to get any updates. Driving into work, and the Kzoo station is saying WWA in effect there, then I hit Van Buren and the MDOT digital sign (where they normally will flash any NWS wx headlines) was lit up with WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY. Needless to say, I was stoked! #awesomeness! Such a Monday morning pick-me-up! better than a cup of strong Joe-to-go from Starbucks! 

 

Snow OTG wasn't deep util I got within about 10 miles of the coast, then it quickly ramped to 5-7" depth with that "we just got hit with a snowstorm" look - fresh white plow banks and parking lot piles. Roads still very snow covered and slippery. My AWD is a lot of fun when it's like this outside. 

 

On top of this, IWX has a WSWatch hoisted and it could be really rocking here tomorrow! 

 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Issued at 418 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

 

Very impressive lake parameters coming together on Tuesday as

extreme instability is present for the entire day as sfc-700mb

delta Ts eclipse 30 setting stage for intense snow bands. NAM12

0-2km ThetaE lapse rates remain impressive and nearing -4 k/km.

Flow will be from a north northwest direction with tap into Lake

Superior moisture for pre-conditioning before long NW fetch over

Lake Michigan. Hires models all in general agreement with several

long and intense bands streaming well southeast and into Ohio and

beyond. The differences as expected are on where each of these

bands will set up and how they will migrate during the period.

 

At this time step there is enough confidence for a watch as

synoptic and mesoscale parameters will support very intense bands

with snowfall rates likely reaching 2-3 inches per hour on

Tuesday. The extreme instability, lake induced CAPE nearing 1000

j/kg on NAM12 bufkit, would also suggest rare thunder snow a

possibility. Strong flow of 30 to 40 knots expected to push these

bands well inland and they should remain quite strong through

central portions of CWA. Several models have high end advisory or

low end warning criteria amounts as far south as Kosciusko and

noble counties. With combination of snow and wind have opted to

include these inland counties in the watch with significant

impacts expected. Also thinking advisories will be needed even

further south and southeast where the most dominant band ends up,

possibly into Fort Wayne area and beyond on Tuesday.

 

The only possible negative for this event is the

inversion heights appear to remain between 7 and 10kft through

entire event. However, strong lift is coincident with saturated

DGZ and with upstream conditioning think convection should be

sufficient to occur in the saturated layer. Expect event to begin

waning late Tuesday night as low level flow backs and drier air

works in crashing inversion heights overnight.

 

Total accums right now expected in the 5 to 9 inch range with

local accums around a foot possible where one of the bands remains

stationary. Question remains on which of the multiple bands

expected will become most dominant. Also must point out that this

type of flow/event often leads to merging bands and increased

snowfall rates. A few hires models hinting at this but no way to

anticipate when or where it will actually happen.

 

Still looks like another clipper Wednesday into Thursday followed by

more lake effect. Only adjustment to blend was to increase NW area

pops to likely for expected next round of lake effect.

 

May be a snoozer for mby in Marshall, but I'll get in the LES action since it's work day timed. Euro's quite the sexy map for those in the right flow off the lakes, should be HUGE for peeps east like NOH, NWNY, etc Bliz there no doubt!

 

[Niko]

Per NOAA:

 

As far as snowfall amounts go,
including the light snow from the daytime hours, 1-4 inch totals
still seem reasonable, and will favor the Euro solution highlighting
the middle tier (M-59/I-69) counties with highest totals. This
scenario also has support from the 6z RAP13 through 3Z Tuesday. An
advisory may be needed as 3 inches in six hours is possible, but due
to uncertainty with the exact placement and bulk of activity now
looking to come just after the evening commute.

 

Note: An WWA might be posted for my area by the pm hour.

 

Still plenty of opportunities for additional snow late in the work week into the
weekend as active baroclinic zone looks to be straddling the Great
Lakes Region with temperatures residing fairly close to normal
values.

[Niko]

"Snow-on-snow watch" in effect for mby!  I was hopeful with this system having better ingredients to exceed my score from Saturday, not the other direction, lol. Guess I'd take another 1.5" at home, even tho a melt-off is looming. Gotta take snow when you're given the gift! Many others nasso lucky, I'm fully aware..

 

So I turn in last night with zero headlines, and don't take time early in the morning to get any updates. Driving into work, and the Kzoo station is saying WWA in effect there, then I hit Van Buren and the MDOT digital sign (where they normally will flash any NWS wx headlines) was lit up with WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY. Needless to say, I was stoked! #awesomeness! Such a Monday morning pick-me-up! better than a cup of strong Joe-to-go from Starbucks! 

 

Snow OTG wasn't deep util I got within about 10 miles of the coast, then it quickly ramped to 5-7" depth with that "we just got hit with a snowstorm" look - fresh white plow banks and parking lot piles. Roads still very snow covered and slippery. My AWD is a lot of fun when it's like this outside. 

 

On top of this, IWX has a WSWatch hoisted and it could be really rocking here tomorrow! 

 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Issued at 418 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

 

Very impressive lake parameters coming together on Tuesday as

extreme instability is present for the entire day as sfc-700mb

delta Ts eclipse 30 setting stage for intense snow bands. NAM12

0-2km ThetaE lapse rates remain impressive and nearing -4 k/km.

Flow will be from a north northwest direction with tap into Lake

Superior moisture for pre-conditioning before long NW fetch over

Lake Michigan. Hires models all in general agreement with several

long and intense bands streaming well southeast and into Ohio and

beyond. The differences as expected are on where each of these

bands will set up and how they will migrate during the period.

 

At this time step there is enough confidence for a watch as

synoptic and mesoscale parameters will support very intense bands

with snowfall rates likely reaching 2-3 inches per hour on

Tuesday. The extreme instability, lake induced CAPE nearing 1000

j/kg on NAM12 bufkit, would also suggest rare thunder snow a

possibility. Strong flow of 30 to 40 knots expected to push these

bands well inland and they should remain quite strong through

central portions of CWA. Several models have high end advisory or

low end warning criteria amounts as far south as Kosciusko and

noble counties. With combination of snow and wind have opted to

include these inland counties in the watch with significant

impacts expected. Also thinking advisories will be needed even

further south and southeast where the most dominant band ends up,

possibly into Fort Wayne area and beyond on Tuesday.

 

The only possible negative for this event is the

inversion heights appear to remain between 7 and 10kft through

entire event. However, strong lift is coincident with saturated

DGZ and with upstream conditioning think convection should be

sufficient to occur in the saturated layer. Expect event to begin

waning late Tuesday night as low level flow backs and drier air

works in crashing inversion heights overnight.

 

Total accums right now expected in the 5 to 9 inch range with

local accums around a foot possible where one of the bands remains

stationary. Question remains on which of the multiple bands

expected will become most dominant. Also must point out that this

type of flow/event often leads to merging bands and increased

snowfall rates. A few hires models hinting at this but no way to

anticipate when or where it will actually happen.

 

Still looks like another clipper Wednesday into Thursday followed by

more lake effect. Only adjustment to blend was to increase NW area

pops to likely for expected next round of lake effect.

 

May be a snoozer for mby in Marshall, but I'll get in the LES action since it's work day timed. Euro's quite the sexy map for those in the right flow off the lakes, should be HUGE for peeps east like NOH, NWNY, etc Bliz there no doubt!

 

20171211 0z 48hr Euro 500 mb.png

I like that band of darker blue color stretching right into my area.

[Tom]

Both NAM's showing a weenie band across MSN/MKE due east towards Niko's pad...

 

 

 

[Niko]

Both NAM's showing a weenie band across MSN/MKE due east towards Niko's pad...

 

 

 

Dare I say a 6inch storm for me???!!!

 

I am thinking that is where the deformation band sets up.

[Tom]

12 NAM has that look the Euro/Euro Control have been showing for the Wed/Thu clipper...advisory snows???

 

 

[westMJim]

12 NAM has that look the Euro/Euro Control have been showing for the Wed/Thu clipper...advisory snows???

That is further north than this mornings GRR discussion had it 

[Madtown]

Www from 11 to 6....up to 3"

[jaster220]

GRR early am AFD was pretty positive for the defo-band snows to be down along i-94, but nowcast trends putting it back north, eh?

 

From this morning:

 

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 328 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

I have decided (in coordination with our Gaylord and North Webster
offices) to issue a Winter Storm Warning for all of our lake shore
counties for tonight through Tuesday into Wednesday morning. This
is a dangerous situation as there will be heavy snow squalls from
with winds will be gusting to over 40 mph resulting in near zero
visibilities in the heavier snow bands.

We have a clipper type low tracking south southeast toward
Chicago for late this afternoon. That will keep all of our CWA in
the snow from the warm advection / isentropic lift part of the
event. This will bring two periods of snow. The first one is the
warm advection part of the event, which will last only about 3
hours in any one place. It will for the most part occur from
around 8 am near Muskegon end by Jackson by 1 pm. That should be a
1 to 2 inch snowfall event. The second part of this is the
deformation zone snow band that from most of the high resolution
models (for several runs in a row) to occur near I-94 from around
4-5 pm till around 9 pm. This will have heavier snow with it, more
like 2 to 3 inches. I considered an advisory for this event but
the event tonight into Wednesday morning seems to this forecast to
be a much more significant event so to keep the headlines simple
I only have headlines for the Lake Effect event tonight into
Wednesday morning.

With the coldest air of the season crossing water that is still
over 40 degrees, and 850 temperature near zero, that is by far and
away a very unstable setup. Bufkit time sections show strong lift
in the DGZ from around midnight tonight till around early
Wednesday morning. The inversion heights are near 10000 ft. Given
there is 40 knots in the mixed layer for wind gusts, this seems
like an event that would need a warning.

I put an advisory for the counties next to the warning area as
there will be some snow squalls that get into those counties. The
inland counties near route 10 will have a Lake Superior connection
and some upslope to help the cause.

Inland of all that it will just be windy and cold Tuesday into
Tuesday night.

 

[Money]

Gfs came in a bit south with the Wed system

 

Now showing 2-3 inch amounts in southern WI

[jaster220]

  Hot off the press. This is getting serious for my office!

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1025 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071-112330-
/O.EXT.KGRR.WS.W.0002.171211T1525Z-171213T1200Z/
Mason-Oceana-Muskegon-Ottawa-Allegan-Van Buren-
Including the cities of Ludington, Hart, Muskegon, Grand Haven,
Jenison, Holland, and South Haven
1025 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow occurring. Travel will be very
difficult to impossible, including during the evening commute
on Tuesday. Additional snow accumulations of 10 to 14 inches,
with localized amounts up to 18 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Mason, Oceana, Muskegon, Ottawa, Allegan and Van Buren
counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will
cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy lake effect snow means
significant amounts of lake effect snow are forecast that will
make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel,
keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case
of an emergency.

$

 

 

(my director already said I should prepare to stay and work at home if need be..this happened fast!) 

[Niko]

  Hot off the press. This is getting serious for my office!

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI

1025 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

 

MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071-112330-

/O.EXT.KGRR.WS.W.0002.171211T1525Z-171213T1200Z/

Mason-Oceana-Muskegon-Ottawa-Allegan-Van Buren-

Including the cities of Ludington, Hart, Muskegon, Grand Haven,

Jenison, Holland, and South Haven

1025 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

 

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow occurring. Travel will be very

difficult to impossible, including during the evening commute

on Tuesday. Additional snow accumulations of 10 to 14 inches,

with localized amounts up to 18 inches, are expected.

 

* WHERE...Mason, Oceana, Muskegon, Ottawa, Allegan and Van Buren

counties.

 

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will

cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy lake effect snow means

significant amounts of lake effect snow are forecast that will

make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel,

keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case

of an emergency.

 

$

 

 

(my director already said I should prepare to stay and work at home if need be..this happened fast!) 

Dang!

[Niko]

Snow has started here and falling in a moderate clip. Everything is white.

[hlcater]

50 dBZ returns over gosaints. Woah. Wonder if that's all snow and what kind of rates are under there.

[Money]

GEM looks solid for the Wed clipper

 

Looks a lot like the 12z nam

[Money]

Gem is also solid for MN/WI/MI with the system this weekend

[Money]

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ggem&p=snku_024h&rh=2017121112&fh=66&r=us_mw&dpdt=

 

Gem for Wed system

[jaster220]

@ GEM

 

Nice..keep 'em coming - gonna be #buried in parts of SWMI the way it's going 

 

IWX, since GRR is yet to show a map (is that 12+ reds showing up I see??)

 

[jaster220]

Rumors on the SMI forum is that the latest short-short-term guidance and nowcast radar will indeed pull that defo-band south a bit to the 94 corridor! Could be a 2013-14 flash-back moment for me this evening! 

[Tom]

@ GEM

 

Nice..keep 'em coming - gonna be #buried in parts of SWMI the way it's going

 

IWX, since GRR is yet to show a map (is that 12+ reds showing up I see??)

 

20171211 IWX am snowfall graphic.png

Guess those lollipop long range GFS/Euro snow maps weren’t far off in the snow belts of MI. Good luck! Pattern is shaping up to be pretty good for WI/MI posters.

[jaster220]

Guess those lollipop long range GFS/Euro snow maps weren’t far off in the snow belts of MI. Good luck! Pattern is shaping up to be pretty good for WI/MI posters.

 

Yep, these longer range model maps have come a long ways, even with that deep south snows for Houston that we laughed off cuz they seemed so ridiculous. Thanks for the well wishes and can't wait til everyone on here joins the party! Gonna be a blast when that happens!