December 6-16 LES and Clipper Train now boarding at the GL's platform!

[Money]

0z GFS with 4-6 inches of snow in eastern wi through next Tuesday

[Tom]

GFS is very active with disturbances every other day next week near the GL’s. Fun times ahead.

[hlcater]

GFS is very active with disturbances every other day next week near the GL’s. Fun times ahead.

Except they all miss Iowa , except for that real nice one.... at hour 210. Although DVN mentioned in their AFD recently that its quite likely this clippers will bounce around a bit due to their low amplitude signature. Maybe one or 2 will bounce southwest and we get lucky? They're only missing by 75-80miles verbatim.

[Money]

GFS is very active with disturbances every other day next week near the GL’s. Fun times ahead.

Yup nearly 8-10+ from mn to mi through hr 240

 

Cold and snow

[Minny_Weather]

Except they all miss Iowa , except for that real nice one.... at hour 210. Although DVN mentioned in their AFD recently that its quite likely this clippers will bounce around a bit due to their low amplitude signature. Maybe one or 2 will bounce southwest and we get lucky? They're only missing by 75-80miles verbatim.

They're coming here instead. I'll bet you on that. Loser gets my cat.

[Tom]

Except they all miss Iowa , except for that real nice one.... at hour 210. Although DVN mentioned in their AFD recently that its quite likely this clippers will bounce around a bit due to their low amplitude signature. Maybe one or 2 will bounce southwest and we get lucky? They're only missing by 75-80miles verbatim.

Ya, it's going to bounce around but that is to be expected.  The GEFS have been trending wetter so its encouraging to see the 00z GFS come in wetter in the 5-10 day period.  I'm thinking the 00z GEFS continue the wetter trend.  Now, if the 00z Euro shows something similar maybe we'll be onto something.  Regarding the Day 9-10 system, it's lining up to something the 12z Euro was "trying" to show when I posted the jet structure maps in our Dec Observation thread.  That system could become a hybrid.

[Tom]

MI is going to be building a glacier next week...LES belts gonna crank!

[Niko]

Models are coming in more moist for Saturday. A storm on the EC might slow down this clipper and throw down some more accumulations in MI. Something to keep an eye on. Could be higher snow totals than currently anticipated.

[Tom]

LOT's take....

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/wxstory/Tab2FileL.png

 

 

 

 

Guidance solutions indicate fairly strong lift, albeit quick
hitting, within favorable snow profiles Friday night. This
supports moderate to brief heavy snowfall rates. Mixing ratios
are forecast to peak at or a little above 2 g/kg on key isentropic
layers but for only about 6 hours or so, so empirically in warm
advection that lines up well with forecast maximums around 2-3
inches. Given the mean path of the system, this higher snowfall
total area would include parts of far northeast Illinois/Chicago
area and northwest Indiana. The timing for the widespread snow is
mainly overnight/early Saturday morning, which may keep impacts
somewhat down. However a Winter Weather Advisory may still need to
be considered.

[Tom]

RPM Model...

 

 

 

Euro vs GFS...

 

 

 

Michiana is going to get pounded!

 

 

[jaster220]

GRR's latest AFD - They've upgraded/added some counties to their WWA, tho thinking a bust for Marshall's 3+ total is likely (GRR over-blows LES but ignores synoptic storms til the 11th hr). I will say tho, that the bolded indicates some "belt counties" could get a WSWatch for the Clipper

 

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2017

The leading edge of a reinforcing shot of arctic air was pushing
through the forecast area at this time. As this front sinks
southeast over the next couple of hours...the steadier snow
showers ahead of it will track through Kalamazoo and Battle Creek.
A northwesterly flow was setting up behind this front where lake
effect snow showers were strengthening. The northwest flow then
persists through the day supporting the steadiest snow showers
where we have the headlines out. We will need to monitor the
Interstate 94 corridor for possible expansion further inland of
the headlines due to the potential for stronger snow showers
today.

A more significant wave of low pressure tracks southeastward
through the CWA Friday night and Saturday. Widespread impacts are
becoming more likely with this event. The combination of deep
moisture...favorable lift and lake enhancement supports an
increased potential for more than 4 inches of snow for western
parts of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2017

The long term begins with a deep upper trough moving across eastern
Michigan and a sfc low over Ontario. Snow from this system will be
winding down and most locations will probably be dry Saturday night
through Sunday evening.

A clipper is progd to move southeast from Manitoba to southern
Ontario Sunday evening and dragging a cold front through the cwa
Monday. Light snow is likely with this system. Lake effect snow that
develops behind it as h8 temps fall to -17c will be limited to the
lake shore and perhaps the far eastern cwa if boundary layer winds
can get enough of a easterly component off of Lake Huron to bring a
few bands through Mid Michigan.

Another clipper is shown by both the ecmwf and gfs to move from
northern Minnesota southeast across Chicago Tuesday night. This
should bring light synoptic snow to the cwa during this time leading
to some minor accumulations.

Highs through the period will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

[Andrew NE]

LOT's take....

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/wxstory/Tab2FileL.png

 

Good luck with this one Tom. Curious question but wont this be the first 1"> snowfall since December of last year(2016).  If I remember correct you only recorded 0.4" of snow in the month of Jan and Feb. If so you are long overdue.

[jaster220]

Looks good. I always thought that the GFS handled Clippers better

 

Better than the Euro? Perhaps, but the GEM was king with Clippers during 2013-14. Speaking of, my total snowfall that autumn through today was only 2.2", so depending on the outcome of the current WWA, I could be tied (or even ahead of) with 2013. Ofc, last December got off to an even faster start, and crashed-n-burned so it's not really saying much. Just been a lot of parallels drawn to that analog season of lore. 

[jaster220]

  Looks nice even if it's a bust for mby on the east end of the WWA

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

MI is going to be building a glacier next week...LES belts gonna crank!

 

@ GFS - DANG!!  paints 1 - 2 feet from mby west to the lake shore!  Where'd this come from? Don't remember any longer range snow maps showing that much tbh, but I'm okay with mid to short range trending up 

[Tom]

Good luck with this one Tom. Curious question but wont this be the first 1"> snowfall since December of last year(2016).  If I remember correct you only recorded 0.4" of snow in the month of Jan and Feb. If so you are long overdue.

Oh my gosh, I went up stairs to do something and I literally was thinking about this same thought~!  Yup, this would officially be the first 1" of snow bud.  Can you imagine?  That's gotta be somewhat of an interesting stat.

[Niko]

This clipper has a 2-4" range for MBY. Although, needs to be watched for higher amounts possible.

 

Per Noaa:

 

Still some
uncertainty with the strength of the low, with the ECMWF now being
the bullish solution with the low getting down to around 1003 hPa,
still modest for a clipper system. Trends will need to be watched
closely over the next 36 hours for potential higher amounts which
may result in the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory

[jaster220]

This clipper has a 2-4" range for MBY. Although, needs to be watched for higher amounts possible.

 

Per Noaa:

 

Still some

uncertainty with the strength of the low, with the ECMWF now being

the bullish solution with the low getting down to around 1003 hPa,

still modest for a clipper system. Trends will need to be watched

closely over the next 36 hours for potential higher amounts which

may result in the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory

 

as said, good trends but get it within 12 hrs, its a Clipper. Hope we're all plowing this weekend!

[Tom]

Both NAM's are indicating somewhat of a convective nature to the snows out in MN/WI/IL.  Might have some good rates at times which would be nice to see (if your up all night).

[VMB443]

They're giving us a couple of inches tomorrow evening into Saturday morning - some flurries floating around right now just to help get us in the mood.

[Niko]

as said, good trends but get it within 12 hrs, its a Clipper. Hope we're all plowing this weekend!

Hopefully, indeed!

[bud2380]

Looks good for the people in states that border a Great Lake.  I'm still hoping to scrape out an inch at my parents house.  I could see that area getting nothing or getting close to an inch.  It will be close.  

[Tom]

They're giving us a couple of inches tomorrow evening into Saturday morning - some flurries floating around right now just to help get us in the mood.

Same here...certainly a "mood" setter for tomorrow...models are speeding up the arrival around here just after rush hour.  Hope we get enough to cover the grass.  Ground is completely frozen and you can see some snow in spots on the grass that fell over night holding on.

[Iowawx]

Once again, Chicago set to get a decent clipper, and my area will get nothing. I am now convinced having a white Christmas is unlikely here.

[Tom]

12z GFS trending stronger with the Mon/Tue clipper across WI/N IL/MI. 00z Euro Control looked similar and farther south. Should be another “refresher” for some who score snow from the Fri/Sat system.

[Money]

12z gfs flips the pattern after hr 240 and shows a big time cutter developing

[Hoosier]

Oh my gosh, I went up stairs to do something and I literally was thinking about this same thought~! Yup, this would officially be the first 1" of snow bud. Can you imagine? That's gotta be somewhat of an interesting stat.

Tom, you are forgetting the March snow. 7.7" at ORD from March 12-14.

[Tom]

Tom, you are forgetting the March snow. 7.7" at ORD from March 12-14.

Oh ya, D**n!  How can I forget about that LES event.  Nice catch!

[jaster220]

12z gfs flips the pattern after hr 240 and shows a big time cutter developing

 

It's got eyes on yby too 

[earthandturf]

Looking forward to possibly having the season's 1st plowable event Fri/sat. I just hope I can get out early enough on Sat. morning so that I can get a few hours of sleep before hosting a x-mas party for 35-40 people Sat. night! I just knew this was going to happen.

[gosaints]

Interested to see how this product performs this winter......

 

 

[jaster220]

If this brings me a solid 2" Saturday, it'd be only one day later than my first solid snow on 12-8-13

 

Nice to see the 1st solid SN forecast vs just SHSN

 

 

[Madtown]

Maps for these bad boys?

[Niko]

I am hoping this clipper slows down a bit.

[jaster220]

Maps for these bad boys?

 

GFS:

 

 

 

GEM:

 

 

IWX

 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Northern Indiana

204 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017

 

INZ003-004-MIZ077-080315-

/O.NEW.KIWX.WS.A.0001.171209T0500Z-171210T0500Z/

La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Berrien-

Including the cities of Michigan City, La Porte, South Bend,

Mishawaka, New Carlisle, Walkerton, Niles, Benton Harbor,

St. Joseph, Fair Plain, Benton Heights, Buchanan,

and Paw Paw Lake

204 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017 /104 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017/

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH

SATURDAY EVENING...

 

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow possible. Plan on difficult

travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches are

possible. Localized heavier amounts are also possible.

 

* WHERE...In Indiana, La Porte and St. Joseph IN Counties. In

Michigan, Berrien County.

 

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday evening.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusts of 20 to 35 mph may cause areas

of blowing and drifting snow late Saturday morning through

Saturday evening.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant

snow that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest

forecasts.

 

[Niko]

So far, still standing at a 2-4" snowfall for late Fri into Sat.

[Tom]

NCEP models thinking...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ndfd/2017120719/conus/ndfd_snow_conus_54.png

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ndfd/2017120719/illinois/ndfd_snow_illinois_54.png

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ndfd/2017120719/michigan/ndfd_snow_michigan_54.png

[jaster220]

Why is there a daily limit on likes?? What'll I do when we get that Big Dog storm we've been promised? >>

[jaster220]

Latest AFD from GRR for the Clipper..

 

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 325 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017

Lingering snow showers attm will taper off late this afternoon and
evening. Although wnw flow lake effect snow showers continue in
progress attm we believe most of the accumulating snow has already
fallen and will let the advisory headline expire as scheduled at
21Z. Dry wx is then anticipated overnight into Friday morning before
the next low pressure system approaches from the nw.

This system will be stronger and bring widespread snow Friday
night and Saturday resulting in hazardous travel conditions. The
snow will be enhanced by moisture from Lake Michigan and the dgz
will be saturated. Very strong mid to upper level pva will also
develop late Friday night and dynamics look favorable. Deformation
zone snow will linger into Saturday afternoon.

This system will bring three to six inches of snow across our
fcst area from Friday night through Saturday afternoon with
highest amounts expected west of US-131 and lowest amounts over
our eastern fcst area. A solid three to four inches of snow is
forecast for the US-131 corridor.

Light lake effect snow showers will linger Saturday night mainly
west of US-131 in a northwest flow regime but little additional
accumulations (under an inch).

 

[jaster220]

Additional break-down for SWMI

 

 

 

Next Snow Event (Friday into Saturday) * Light snow during the day Friday mainly north of Holland - Grand Rapids - Alma. * Moderate to locally heavy snow Friday night and part of Saturday in most of Lower Michigan.    - Period of heavy snow in Muskegon / Ottawa / Allegan / Van Buren counties, pre-dawn Saturday.    - Moderate snow diminishes from northwest to southeast across Lower Michigan during the day Saturday. *  Occasional bursts of heavy snow continuing Saturday afternoon & evening near Lake Michigan (especially Manistee-to-Whitehall and Holland-to-Indiana) affecting travel conditions.