December 6-16 LES and Clipper Train now boarding at the GL's platform!

[Tony]

Michigan sure looks to be in the sweet zone for sure. Radar looks like precip coming in a little south but that could be deceiving.

[Madtown]

when this weekend? No precip in my zone forecasts?

[jaster220]

Classic GRR...better late than never

 

I got my headline after all!

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1025 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

MIZ051-052-058-059-066-067-073-074-112330-
/O.EXB.KGRR.WW.Y.0020.171211T1525Z-171212T0600Z/
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ionia-Clinton-Eaton-Ingham-Calhoun-Jackson-
Including the cities of Greenville, Alma, Ionia, St. Johns,
Charlotte, Lansing, Battle Creek, and Jackson
1025 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions,
including during the evening commute. Additional snow
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central and south central Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$

[Money]

when this weekend? No precip in my zone forecasts?

Sat/Sun

 

GEM snow totals through next mon

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ggem&p=snku_acc&rh=2017121112&fh=144&r=us_mw&dpdt=

[jaster220]

This COULD be a new GRR record?  14" on a WWA? They sure like to get maximum usage outta that purple headline!   

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1025 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

MIZ038-039-044-057-065-072-112330-
/O.EXT.KGRR.WW.Y.0020.171211T1525Z-171213T1200Z/
Lake-Osceola-Newaygo-Kent-Barry-Kalamazoo-
Including the cities of Baldwin, Reed City, Fremont,
Grand Rapids, Hastings, and Kalamazoo
1025 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Plan on difficult travel
conditions, including during the morning commute on Tuesday.
Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches, with localized
amounts up to 14 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Lake, Osceola, Newaygo, Kent, Barry and Kalamazoo
counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will
cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for lake effect snow means lake effect
snow is forecast that will make travel difficult in some areas.
Use caution when traveling.

$

[Minny_Weather]

This COULD be a new GRR record?  14" on a WWA? They sure like to get maximum usage outta that purple headline!   

Okay, I usually keep my criticisms on NWS offices low cuz I know they go thru, but that's actually unintelligent to sugarcoat it. Even taking out the isolated 14" wording, 4 to 7" is LITERALLY the textbook definition of a WSW.

[jaster220]

Okay, I usually keep my criticisms on NWS offices low cuz I know they go thru, but that's actually unintelligent to sugarcoat it. Even taking out the isolated 14" wording, 4 to 7" is LITERALLY the textbook definition of a WSW.

 

At least for non-snowbelt counties, it's traditionally been 4-8" for WSWatches so yeah, you're spot-on! You'd love my office..

 

Meanwhile, it takes this expectancy for them to go full-bore with a warning. You betta be seeing #pink!

 

[Niko]

Currently light snow and temp @ 22F.

[jaster220]

She's south and digging - surprise thump for Tom after all in the making?? 

 

 

[Niko]

She's south and digging - surprise thump for Tom after all in the making?? 

 

20171211 1242 EDT sat_wv_us_loop-12.gif

[WBadgersW]

She's south and digging - surprise thump for Tom after all in the making??

 

20171211 1242 EDT sat_wv_us_loop-12.gif

 

My WWA looks to bust, unless it starts heading more East soon.

[Money]

Euro has 3-5 type event for Milwaukee area on Wed and the system at 120 is looking interesting

[jaster220]

She's south and digging - surprise thump for Tom after all in the making?? 

 

20171211 1242 EDT sat_wv_us_loop-12.gif

 

FXUS63 KLOT 111820

AFDLOT

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL

1220 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

 

.UPDATE...1200 PM CST...

 

There is an area of snow/mixed precipitataion across southeast

Minnesota that will dig east-southeast today as warm advection

continues ahead of southeastward shifting clipper. There are some

decent snow rates occurring in a narrow area, and some of this

will get awfully close to the IL/WI border, but near term guidance

indicates the warm advective wing of the clipper will shift the

better moisture north of the area as this first band moves in in

the 11am-3pm time frame. Precip type from the bourgouin wet bulb

method would be largley snow/sleet if the precip makes it to the

ground, maybe some mix of rain in there. Impacts from a snow accum

perspective appear low, but there is still some uncertainty with

far south this stronger band will get, making the difference

between accumulation potential and nothing very tight and worth

monitoring across the Winnebago to Lake IL counties. This axis

will likely at least shift into Winnebago and our north central IL

counties where a quick few tenths of an inch of snow are possible.

 

As the surface low will move into Indiana this evening, a cold

front will shift across the area. Models then indicate a brief

period of snow shower potential in the evening with the cold

front, and a brief dusting in the 6-9 pm time frame is also

possible. Afterwards, strong northwest winds will bring the core

of the cold air in. The mixed layer eventually gets into a better

snow production region where there could be some flurries

overnight.

 

KMD

[Money]

Euro hits northern Iowa over to toms area with the weekend system. Takes the low into central IL

[jaster220]

My WWA looks to bust, unless it starts heading more East soon.

 

Nah, ur fine. It'll be quick but intense. Tom's gonna be a nail-biter tho. Weenie band starting to take shape between ORD and Chedda curtainville

[Tom]

Keeping hopes alive! I’m out on the road today so only on my phone. Maps looking better for Wed/Thu period on the Euro. I would be happy to get enough to whiten things up. As you said Jaster, nail biter for tonight it is.

[Money]

Keeping hopes alive! I’m out on the road today so only on my phone. Maps looking better for Wed/Thu period on the Euro. I would be happy to get enough to whiten things up. As you said Jaster, nail biter for tonight it is.

Euro almost looks like a panhandle hook type system for this weekend. Digs and precip explodes over IA/IL/S. WI

[jaster220]

Euro hits northern Iowa over to toms area with the weekend system. Takes the low into central IL

 

EC bringin the W->E slider with qpf sweet-spot over mby/94 corridor..whoa Euro!

 

[Niko]

EC bringin the W->E slider with qpf sweet-spot over mby/94 corridor..whoa Euro!

 

20171211 12z 156hr Euro qpf.png

Sweet!

[Madtown]

John dee seems to think the weekend could be a decent hit as well

[Money]

EC bringin the W->E slider with qpf sweet-spot over mby/94 corridor..whoa Euro!

 

20171211 12z 156hr Euro qpf.png

EC bringin the W->E slider with qpf sweet-spot over mby/94 corridor..whoa Euro!

 

20171211 12z 156hr Euro qpf.png

Yup and the ratios should be pretty D**n good

 

12+ for MKE area

[Niko]

WWA just posted for my area w round #2 by later this afternoon......

 

Per NOAA:

 

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT... SNOW EXPECTED. PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. * WHERE... SHIAWASSEE, GENESEE, LIVINGSTON, OAKLAND, MACOMB, WASHTENAW AND WAYNE COUNTIES. * WHEN... FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... BE PREPARED FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

[jaster220]

Strange, when I refreshed the NOAA CONUS hazards map, the DTX WWA's popped up, but the IWX upgrades reverted back to their Watches?? Gremlins I guess..

 

anyhooo..their official Warning txt

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1253 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

INZ004-005-MIZ077-078-120200-
/O.UPG.KIWX.WS.A.0002.171212T0600Z-171213T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KIWX.WS.W.0002.171212T0600Z-171213T1200Z/
St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Berrien-Cass MI-
Including the cities of South Bend, Mishawaka, New Carlisle,
Walkerton, Elkhart, Goshen, Nappanee, Niles, Benton Harbor,
St. Joseph, Fair Plain, Benton Heights, Buchanan, Paw Paw Lake,
Dowagiac, Cassopolis, and Marcellus
1253 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Plan on difficult travel
conditions, including during the morning and evening commute on
Tuesday. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches, with
localized amounts up to 12 inches, are possible. Blowing and
drifting snow also possible with strong and gusty northwest
winds.

* WHERE...In Indiana, St. Joseph IN and Elkhart Counties. In
Michigan, Berrien and Cass MI Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting between 30 and 40 mph will
cause areas of blowing and drifting snow making travel
difficult, especially on east west roads. Snowfall rates of 1 to
3 inches per hour will be possible within the stronger lake
effect bands. Whiteout conditions will likely occur in these
bands.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy lake effect snow means
significant amounts of lake effect snow are forecast that will
make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel,
keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case
of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

[jaster220]

WWA just posted for my area w round #2 by later this afternoon......

 

Per NOAA:

 

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT... SNOW EXPECTED. PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. * WHERE... SHIAWASSEE, GENESEE, LIVINGSTON, OAKLAND, MACOMB, WASHTENAW AND WAYNE COUNTIES. * WHEN... FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST TUESDAY. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... BE PREPARED FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

 

'grats bud! Enjoy every freakin flake!   

[WBadgersW]

Yup and the ratios should be pretty d**n good

 

12+ for MKE area

Between Wednsday and the weekend, I'm liking the chance that someone in S WI will see a 6" snowfall.

[jaster220]

Yup and the ratios should be pretty d**n good

 

12+ for MKE area

 

Sweetness, gotta get more of the sub in on this action. It's crazy busy now for SWMI - "Storms, storms, and rumors of storms.." as someone mildly famous in the wx biz coined. And I thought 07-08 or 13-14 had it's busy times! This is like nuts. 

[Niko]

'grats bud! Enjoy every freakin flake!   

 

There could be lollipops of 6inches, if anyone is under that deformation band.

[jaster220]

Between Wednsday and the weekend, I'm liking the chance that someone in S WI will see a 6" snowfall.

 

#BURIED by the Euro   

 

[hlcater]

#BURIED by the Euro   

 

20171211 12z 168hr Euro Snowfall.jpg

OMG PLEASE.

[Niko]

#BURIED by the Euro   

 

20171211 12z 168hr Euro Snowfall.jpg

:o

 

Jaster, this reminds me of last year when we saw a fluke map just like this and the next day it was gone. It had us in 2ft+.

 

This map has Detroit in 2ft and just under that IMBY. Holy crap!

[james1976]

Would looooove if that Euro verified

[Madtown]

looks a little busty around these parts for today

[Tony]

Everyone is hungry

 

looks a little busty around these parts for today

Everyone is getting hungry for snow so a nice run like the Euro will spark some posting

[VMB443]

It’s amazing how we went from snooze fest to lots to keep an eye on - looks like this afternoon band is going to whiff but we will see.

[Madtown]

might get a flake outta this wwa....oops nws

[Tony]

If the Wednesday system follows suit with todays then we should see the models bringing it farther South

[hlcater]

Had a bit of snow earlier, which I didn't really accumulate beyond slush, which I'm not gonna bother measuring. It was, however, the most meaningful snow we've seen all season. Was able to get a quick snap of the Christmas tree on my phone earlier though. A tree with snow falling behind it is one of my favorite things about Christmas.

 

[VMB443]

might get a flake outta this wwa....oops nws

Haha yeah - blew that one Oaky though, more chances in the making!

[Hawkeye]

As I suspected might be the case, once the initial burst of large flakes subsided, the snow rate was not able to counteract the warm surface/ground temp(air temp never dropped below 35).  We finished with only a spotty slushy dusting.  So, our season continues to be without any measurable snow.

[westMJim]

There is a very narrow band of snow just along and just north of I 94  looks like Jaster should be either in or close to that band. The band looks to stay south of the GR metro area