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The Winter Solstice Storm


Tom

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You do better on both. I just scored 12.5" over 10 days, the 5-ish shown by the GFS won't excite, especially if it's lost to rain puddles, falls with temps at 35F etc.. Pardon me, but I'm setting the bar a bit higher, Christmas or not.. I'm still awaiting my pay-back for the '09 fiasco 

GEM might work for ya. Its Pre-Christmas week. ;) :)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Why are you using maps that go to hr 240 when talking about this storm?

 

Good point, but Tom mentioned something about extension and I just ran away with it I guess. My bad

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12z GEFS...

 

DRbXwUhXUAEKFZn.jpg

 

Can I vote for starting with e19 and ironing out the details later. Suddenly, I've gone from little interest in a Rainer, to hopeful for action  :)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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There are more 12z EPS individual members showing a swath of snow from the secondary wave....more so, then last nights 00z EPS run...trend is positive in my opinion....overall, it keeps the track from the Texarkana region up thru S IL/S IN/OH.  I counted nearly 50% of the members jumping on the secondary low development.

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There are more 12z EPS individual members showing a swath of snow from the secondary wave....more so, then last nights 00z EPS run...trend is positive in my opinion....overall, it keeps the track from the Texarkana region up thru S IL/S IN/OH.  I counted nearly 50% of the members jumping on the secondary low development.

 

Yep, lookin better in the past 24 hrs, quite a turn-about actually. CPC steps away from the Heavy Snow they painted across the north yesterday, but not really committed to the precip down south getting north enough to show it over our region. No shock really, they've missed every storm since October's flooding rainers. Another theme of this early winter continues imho

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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All gonna depend on when that southern wave strengthens and finally ejects... It cant be to slow or nothing will happen.  Its really a more of a delicate system than what we have had in the last couple seasons.  Small changes at 500 mb will have large impacts on the evolution of the system.

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All gonna depend on when that southern wave strengthens and finally ejects... It cant be to slow or nothing will happen.  Its really a more of a delicate system than what we have had in the last couple seasons.  Small changes at 500 mb will have large impacts on the evolution of the system.

Very true.  This is why I had flashbacks of the late October GL's bomb bc none of the models (except the Euro) had any idea of a big storm 4-5 days out.  Then once we got into the 84 hour range we began to see the GFS correct it's know (to fast to the east bias) and the GGEM/NAM jumped on board.  The NAM steadily saw the phasing each day going forward so when I see today's 18z run showing the phase late in the run, I see flashbacks of that particular Oct storm which also was very delicate as you mentioned.  Honestly, that storm was about as complex as this one.

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Someone said(i think on AmWx) said that this set up is especially finicky due to the way that it ejects. Also how any delay will force the system southeast and weaker. For most of this sub we'd want a faster evolution, otherwise the only people that will see any appreciable snow is MI.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Someone please take the winter storm title off this post. It doesn't deserve it. Even calling it a system is not the right word. More like a wave. lol

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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If that storm system near New Years doesn't show up we'll only end up with a trace of snow the entire month of December. Thats crazy insane.

 

Same here.  We had a couple of trace amounts.  A very light dusting maybe on grassy areas one day, and some flurries or very light snow one or two other times that didn't amount to anything measurable.  Not a great start to winter.  

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Just for the record, this storm sucks.  Crazy how much it changed/weakened in just 24 hours.  I looked at yesterday's 18z GFS and it still showed 6-10" for a huge area including MSP.  Now it shows

 

I’m just happy the existing snowpack mostly survived 40F yesterday and 35F today. If the snow on the ground had melted, it would make missing this storm sting even more. White Christmas is now a lock here with temps on the major decline.

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