The Winter Solstice Storm

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I'm not sure if NWLinnCountIA will approve of this post or if its too negative for him..but come on really? Euro? Going to punch us in the gut 5 days before Christmas with another brown dry and cold one. And too the people who say well at least its cold..what good does that do? We've had cold enough air for snow at times since late October, this month is full of and I'm not afraid to say it here. And I can rant here if I want too as well. 

 

This model run went even further north and gives Omaha / Lincoln metro a dusting or less. Actually its even further north then the GFS but stronger. I know it can change still but man, you know when the trend is a bad one 5 days out its not good. Hoping for a miracle.

[hlcater]

I'm not sure if NWLinnCountIA will approve of this post or if its too negative for him..but come on really? Euro? Going to punch us in the gut 5 days before Christmas with another brown dry and cold one. And too the people who say well at least its cold..what good does that do? We've had cold enough air for snow at times since late October, this month is full of s**t and I'm not afraid to say it here. And I can rant here if I want too as well. 

 

This model run went even further north and gives Omaha / Lincoln metro a dusting or less. Actually its even further north then the GFS but stronger. I know it can change still but man, you know when the trend is a bad one 5 days out its not good. Hoping for a miracle.

lol. You're quickly going on the list with snowlover. Whining does not further discussion, nor does it do any good. That's a hard fact.

[Money]

Euro explodes the storm once it gets into MI

 

Gets down to 985

[Hawkeye]

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017121700/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_150.png

[Money]

But why though. You'd think it it was gonna dig like that it would stay in one piece instead of a piece breaking off and heading straight into the feature that was making it dig in the first place. There's a lot of high pressure to the N/NW of the system while it digs.

Yeah Idk maybe Tom can explain it better but I have no idea why it does that

[NEJeremy]

Next!

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Next!

Yeah I will revert back to my earlier prediction of no measurable snow in Omaha for this whole month lol.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

You know you are desperate when you are posting the NAVY model..but it looks the best lol. It shows a nice wound up system

 

 

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

-.

Yeah I will revert back to my earlier prediction of no measurable snow in Omaha for this whole month lol.

Look I'am not trying to argue that where you live in OMA hasn't seen measurable snow- but officially OMA has seen measureable snow this month on the 6th with .1". I know no one "lives at the airport" but the observer there on duty measured .1" and that is the "official" snow measuring spot for the OMA area since the winter 1935-1936.
​

 

 

Station Thread for Omaha Area, NE   Name Period in Thread 1 OMAHA EPPLEY AIRFIELD 01/1994 to 12/2016 2 OMAHA WSFO 06/1977 to 12/1993 3 OMAHA EPPLEY AIRFIELD 01/1948 to 05/1977 4 OMAHA EPPLEY (supplied by NWS) 06/1935 to 12/1947 5 OMAHA WBO (supplied by NWS) 01/1871 to 05/1935

 

FTR- the NWS at most airports recorded the official climate data until ASOS/ CWO's arrived ( for OMA that was Jan 1994)  and in some cases- placement for the new WSR-88 Doppler radar forced them to move offices from airports to areas away from urban areas more suitable for radar location as well as the cost of purchasing the land to do so.  And when the radar moved that meant the NWS office had to as well due to restrictions on the distance the two can be away from each other. That is why many WSR-88 radars are on or very near Federal land cutting the cost. Contract Weather Observers (CWO) working jointly with the NWS and FAA (now only for the FAA) then and now provide the climate data at airports (preserving the climate location)  when offices moved, and in some cases a considerable distance away causing potential obvious errors in the climate record.  Most NWS offices still record climate data but it's superseded by airport climate data provided by CWO's and ASOS since that is where data has been recorded in the Midwest since the 1930's.  

[Craig-OmahaWX]

-.

Look I'am not trying to argue that where you live in OMA hasn't seen measurable snow- but officially OMA has seen measureable snow this month on the 6th with .1". I know no one "lives at the airport" but the observer there on duty measured .1" and that is the "official" snow measuring spot for the OMA area since the winter 1935-1936.

​

 

 

Station Thread for Omaha Area, NE   Name Period in Thread 1 OMAHA EPPLEY AIRFIELD 01/1994 to 12/2016 2 OMAHA WSFO 06/1977 to 12/1993 3 OMAHA EPPLEY AIRFIELD 01/1948 to 05/1977 4 OMAHA EPPLEY (supplied by NWS) 06/1935 to 12/1947 5 OMAHA WBO (supplied by NWS) 01/1871 to 05/1935

 

FTR- the NWS at most airports recorded the official climate data until ASOS/ CWO's arrived ( for OMA that was Jan 1994)  and in some cases- placement for the new WSR-88 Doppler radar forced them to move offices from airports to areas away from urban areas more suitable for radar location as well as the cost of purchasing the land to do so.  And when the radar moved that meant the NWS office had to as well due to restrictions on the distance the two can be away from each other. That is why many WSR-88 radars are on or very near Federal land cutting the cost. Contract Weather Observers (CWO) working jointly with the NWS and FAA (now only for the FAA) then and now provide the climate data at airports (preserving the climate location)  when offices moved, and in some cases a considerable distance away causing potential obvious errors in the climate record.  Most NWS offices still record climate data but it's superseded by airport climate data provided by CWO's and ASOS since that is where data has been recorded in the Midwest since the 1930's.  

LOL you got me. 

 

Maybe the models will pull a hail mary today and go with the UKMET / NAVY.

[clintbeed1993]

-.

Look I'am not trying to argue that where you live in OMA hasn't seen measurable snow- but officially OMA has seen measureable snow this month on the 6th with .1". I know no one "lives at the airport" but the observer there on duty measured .1" and that is the "official" snow measuring spot for the OMA area since the winter 1935-1936.

​

 

 

Station Thread for Omaha Area, NE   Name Period in Thread 1 OMAHA EPPLEY AIRFIELD 01/1994 to 12/2016 2 OMAHA WSFO 06/1977 to 12/1993 3 OMAHA EPPLEY AIRFIELD 01/1948 to 05/1977 4 OMAHA EPPLEY (supplied by NWS) 06/1935 to 12/1947 5 OMAHA WBO (supplied by NWS) 01/1871 to 05/1935

 

FTR- the NWS at most airports recorded the official climate data until ASOS/ CWO's arrived ( for OMA that was Jan 1994)  and in some cases- placement for the new WSR-88 Doppler radar forced them to move offices from airports to areas away from urban areas more suitable for radar location as well as the cost of purchasing the land to do so.  And when the radar moved that meant the NWS office had to as well due to restrictions on the distance the two can be away from each other. That is why many WSR-88 radars are on or very near Federal land cutting the cost. Contract Weather Observers (CWO) working jointly with the NWS and FAA (now only for the FAA) then and now provide the climate data at airports (preserving the climate location)  when offices moved, and in some cases a considerable distance away causing potential obvious errors in the climate record.  Most NWS offices still record climate data but it's superseded by airport climate data provided by CWO's and ASOS since that is where data has been recorded in the Midwest since the 1930's.  

 

Thanks for dropping such amazing wisdom Mr Know It All.  Are you really arguing .1 inch and making a point out of that?

[Grizzcoat]

Thanks for dropping such amazing wisdom Mr Know It All.  Are you really arguing .1 inch and making a point out of that?

yeah I really am. Cause it's my job. .1" is .1" -- what are you saying?  I'am saying OMA has seen .1" of snow so far this DEC. WHICH is not  a "T" . It's like saying 9.8" is not 9.9"  which it's not when you look at many records missing by a tenth. I work in the climate field and measure/use the data. That's all.

[Grizzcoat]

FWIW-

[jaster220]

yeah I really am. Cause it's my job. .1" is .1" -- what are you saying? I'am saying OMA has seen .1" of snow so far this DEC. WHICH is not a "T" . It's like saying 9.8" is not 9.9" which it's not when you look at many records missing by a tenth. I work in the climate field and measure/use the data. That's all.

Still, 0.1 is the latest of ways to avoid a shut-out, and from a practical "real feel" standpoint, you can't discern the difference. Certainly to Joe Public, they're one and the same

[SE Wisconsin]

MKX AFD

 

"The 00z model runs show that the system is trending warmer for
srn WI. Especially the Euro which brings a pronounced warm surge
into the area that could keep precip liquid longer through
Thursday night with only a changeover to a little light snow for
Friday. Meanwhile the GFS drops the colder air further south into
srn WI quicker on Thursday night with more potential for
accumulating snow than the Euro. The tracks of the surface and 850
features are also not favorable ones for siggy snow in our area"

 

The trend is not our friend.

 

Looks as though N WI and N MN may score big on this one.

 

But for the rest of us - just cold rain!

[GDR]

I haven’t seen a flake yet so I would take .1 anyday

[jaster220]

I haven’t seen a flake yet so I would take .1 anyday

#sad

 

[Snowlover76]

Are we at least gonna see rain?

[St Paul Storm]

0z Euro. That’s nice and all, but the models are still trying to figure out the level of phasing. Euro and GFS are quite different in terms of how early that happens.

[Niko]

Models need more time to figure this out!

[gimmesnow]

Needs to come south, just a little bit. I'm right on the edge of the snow according to GFS.

[Money]

12z gfs running and it looks south of 6z so far through hr 81

[St Paul Storm]

GFS hanging the energy back at hr 102.

[Money]

GFS hanging the energy back at hr 102.

And the blocking moves quickly to the east

 

This isn’t gonna be good

[St Paul Storm]

GFS trending toward the Euro this run.

[St Paul Storm]

And the blocking moves quickly to the east

This isn’t gonna be good

.

 

Thermals are suddenly an issue in Wisco as the blocking heads east. NW trender. Duluth special in the making.

[Snowshoe]

Rain snow line into C. Wis on the 12Z GFS.

[Money]

Ha GEM comes back in way south from last run

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017121712&fh=108

[St Paul Storm]

Wow big run unfolding. 24 hours and still snowing.

[Snowshoe]

Low over Madison on GFS at 132

[St Paul Storm]

Ha GEM comes back in way south from last run

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017121712&fh=108

That high is farther south on the GEM for sure. Two highs actually.

[bud2380]

The GEM with significant snows on xmas eve now for all of Iowa. Not sure on accumulation yet but looks like 2-4” type system.

[St Paul Storm]

So much going on on the GEM. My head is spinning. Stuff popping all over on multiple days.

[St Paul Storm]

GFS and GEM thru Dec 23.

[Money]

The GEM with significant snows on xmas eve now for all of Iowa. Not sure on accumulation yet but looks like 2-4” type system.

Gfs has this system too now

[bud2380]

Yep. Man that would be sweet if models continue to show this surprise follow up system. And on Xmas eve would be really cool. It even hits Nebraska believe it or not.

[St Paul Storm]

In the wake of the Solstice system. Mercy. Flashbacks to Jan 2014. I’ll have to look at the records but I’m pretty sure that would be one of the coldest Christmas mornings on record.

[Money]

Nothing like a 1060 H in the US

[bud2380]

[St Paul Storm]

Nothing like a 1060 H in the US

GEM at 1070. Ummmm. 2m temps of -50s in WY.