What's Up With The Solar Activity Lately?

[Phil 12063]

We have a subforum for solar minimum stuff - maybe a write up on why this number matters would help.

The 10.7cm radio flux is the more ideal measurement of overall solar activity levels, especially during solar minimum when sunspots are often unable to form. It picks up phenomena such as prominences, etc, where as the sunspot count does not do so. Numbers at/below 70 are considered very low..solar minimum levels. Mid-60’s are extremely low..quite infrequent even in deep solar minima.

 

There is a seasonal cycle in the raw (“measured”) data due to the Earth’s elliptical orbit around the Sun (the measured numbers will therefore read slightly higher in the winter, when Earth is closer to the Sun, and lower in the summer, when Earth is farther from the Sun).

 

The “adjusted” data (readings tuned as if R = one astronomical unit, which is 149.6 million km, or the distance from the center of the Earth to the center of the Sun) accounts for this cycle, so it’s a more objective reference for actual activity levels than the raw/measured data. Right now, the raw data reads a bit higher than the adjusted data, since Earth is less than 1AU from the Sun at this time of year.

[OKwx2k4 4211]

Hard to know what to make of this. The 677nm (magnetic red from solar surface, associated w/ spots and other disturbances) looks pretty low right now on SORCE, but this could also be a result of radiometer degradation, given the fuzziness lately. Question is if the decline is accurate or not?

 

http://lasp.colorado.edu/lisird/data/sorce_solstice_ssi_high_res/

 

If so, easily lowest of our lifetimes is a fair assertion, correct?

 

Even if its fuzzy, close to lowest is still super impressive.

[Andie 1825]

I don't think anyone will argue much that we are entering a low solar period that will last several decades. If it's as low as it was 200 years ago, then it's going to be quite cold and farmers are in for a dificult time. As consumers, food will get quite expensive.

 

"...all indications are that the upcoming solar minimum may be even quieter than the last one which was the deepest in nearly a century. In addition, there are now forecasts that the next solar cycle, #25, will be the weakest in more than 200 years. The current solar cycle, #24, has been the weakest with the fewest sunspots since solar cycle 14 peaked in February 1906. Solar cycle 24 continues a recent trend of weakening solar cycles which began with solar cycle 21 that peaked around 1980 and if the latest forecasts are correct, that trend will continue for at least another decade or so."

https://www.perspectaweather.com/blog/2019/6/19/1030-am-now-entering-a-deep-solar-minimum-and-the-latest-forecast-for-solar-cycle-25-suggests-it-may-be-the-weakest-cycle-in-200-years

 

[Andie 1825]

Interesting interview

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=

 

From Abstract of Paper by Valentina Zharkova -

We verify the extrapolated activity curve by the pre-telescope observations of large sunspots with naked eye, by comparing the observed and simulated butterfly diagrams for Maunder Minimum (MM), by a maximum of the terrestrial temperature and extremely intense terrestrial auroras seen in the past grand cycle occurred in 14-16 centuries. We confirm the occurrence of upcoming Modern grand minimum in 2020-2053, which will have a shorter duration (3 cycles) and, thus, higher solar activity compared to MM. We argue that Sporer minimum (1450-1550) derived from the increased abundances of isotopes 14C and 10Be is likely produced by a strong increase of the terrestrial background radiation caused by the galactic cosmic rays of powerful supernovae.

 

https://watchers.news/2018/03/30/study-suggests-modern-grand-solar-minimum-in-2020-2053/

[weatherfan2012 258]

Interesting interview

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=

From Abstract of Paper by Valentina Zharkova -

We verify the extrapolated activity curve by the pre-telescope observations of large sunspots with naked eye, by comparing the observed and simulated butterfly diagrams for Maunder Minimum (MM), by a maximum of the terrestrial temperature and extremely intense terrestrial auroras seen in the past grand cycle occurred in 14-16 centuries. We confirm the occurrence of upcoming Modern grand minimum in 2020-2053, which will have a shorter duration (3 cycles) and, thus, higher solar activity compared to MM. We argue that Sporer minimum (1450-1550) derived from the increased abundances of isotopes 14C and 10Be is likely produced by a strong increase of the terrestrial background radiation caused by the galactic cosmic rays of powerful supernovae.

https://watchers.news/2018/03/30/study-suggests-modern-grand-solar-minimum-in-2020-2053/

It will be interesting if valentine is right or if Rolf Witzsche turns our right different conclusions from the both.Here is Rolf site http://www.ice-age-ahead-iaa.ca/