bud2380 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/2017122212/conus/ukmet_acc_precip_conus_72.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 So, we get this Clipper wave to amp up, but at the expense of next week's BD. Hmm..while I love snow for Christmas, not sure I like the trade-off tbh. Anyways, great to have something most on here (esp Neb peeps) can get excited for just in time for Santa. Man, what a hole tho for N IA and Wisco/S MN peeps..hope some of you at least have a covering OTG? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 Hoping the Euro is right on this system, that would dump a solid 2-4” of snow right over the Omaha metro. The NAM still showing this system mainly to our southwest, however I am liking the trends of this being a little farther north and stronger. All I really want is at least an inch of snow on the ground Christmas morning, that’s what my kids want... hopefully Mother Nature can deliver this weekend! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 Ukie has the most qpf over SMI. I don't think we're getting anything from the Sat wave, so that's contamination imho.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 12z Euro even father north and stronger...hits NE/C IA/N IL pretty good... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 Euro puts the heaviest band over I80 in Iowa. http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122212/iowa/ecmwf_t_precip_iowa_54.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 ugly. But not surprised we just cant catch a break here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 12z Euro spits out around .25qpf for Chitown and even more over S MI peeps. What a turn of events! It’s even showing a Lehs signature. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 DSM-- EURO raw #'s. looks like 20:1 ratios? SUN 06Z 24-DEC -5.1 -10.9 1027 58 100 0.03 544 523 SUN 12Z 24-DEC -7.0 -13.5 1026 84 99 0.16 536 516 SUN 18Z 24-DEC -5.1 -13.9 1026 68 40 0.03 530 509 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 12z Euro spits out around .25qpf for Chitown and even more over S MI peeps. What a turn of events! It’s even showing a Lehs signature. Nice. Guess we're no longer left guessing which wave the atmosphere waants to amplify. This was like a spinning roulette wheel OMG.. Current state of Snow (cover) as of this early am Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 12z Euro spits out around .25qpf for Chitown and even more over S MI peeps. What a turn of events! It’s even showing a Lehs signature. You're sitting in a sweet spot with likely help from the Lake.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 You're sitting in a sweet spot with likely help from the Lake.. This is like a gift from nature...I’m going to be filled with joy waking up on Christmas with a couple inches of powda! Makes up for the wiff of the Solstice storm. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 hopefully the Euro is wrong 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 ....that snow cover map is a little misleading....nothing here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 ....that snow cover map is a little misleading....nothing here. Yep, they can be, certainly on the fringe Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 This is like a gift from nature...I’m going to be filled with joy waking up on Christmas with a couple inches of powda! Makes up for the wiff of the Solstice storm.Being without any measureable snow for the month of December is really strange so seeing the new model runs is a nice surprise or dare I say "Christmas Miracle" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 yet again..... http://movieboozer.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/lucy-football.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 I'll take the 2" that the Euro is showing from this. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 I'll take the 2" that the Euro is showing from this.id rather the GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 id rather the GFSSame but the low end being 2" is definitely not a bad sign. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buzzman289 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 I'm looking at brown grass in Cedar Rapids, so that snow map is definitely not correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 Same but the low end being 2" is definitely not a bad sign.the trend on the euro is one I do not like Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 DVN's new graphic indicates they are not going as far north as the latest euro, yet. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 18z NAM through hour 39 coming in a bit North of the 12z with the Christmas Eve wave. 12z kept it all basically entirely South of the Iowa border. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 Stronger/North trend is legit on the 18z NAM...it likes OMA/LNK peeps also... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 18z NAM through hour 39 coming in a bit North of the 12z with the Christmas Eve wave. That's more than a bit north... a 80+ mile jump to join the euro/uk. I'd like to see this wave continue to amp and inch north a bit more. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 Nope I’d like to see it stay put 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 Stronger/North trend is legit on the 18z NAM...it likes OMA/LNK peeps also...I am liking the trends of a stronger, more northward tracking system. Last night and early this morning, it looked like we might be only good for a trace to a 1/2 inch of snow in Omaha with the Saturday night/Christmas Eve system - now 2-4 inches looks like it might be possible around here. According to the NAM and Euro, our chances of a White Christmas in Omaha are certainly rising... hope these models are onto something! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 I'm just happy that it looks very likely we'll see snow on Xmas Eve. Hopefully we get at least an inch. 2 or 3" would be gravy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 DVN just updated their grids to a whopping 20% chance of snow?? They are always way to slow to react to the models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 DMX and DVN discussions both say best snow in the far south, but they'll watch for a continued north trend. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 12z Euro spits out around .25qpf for Chitown and even more over S MI peeps. What a turn of events! It’s even showing a Lehs signature.At 15:1 or higher ratios this should fluff up nicely! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 Thinking closer to 10:1, it's not going to be cold. I for one want nothing higher than 12:1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 OAX going with less than an inch here in Omaha to 2-3” towards the Kansas border for tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 18z looks about the same Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 Thinking closer to 10:1, it's not going to be cold. I for one want nothing higher than 12:1In this case it will be the depth of the DGZ that will fluff it up to higher ratios. I could be wrong but just throwing it out there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 DMX said 15-20:1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 I go by old school rules of thumb, wind direction and temps. My high is showing 28 deg, anticipating an east (wet) wind. Traditionally 28-32F snows here are not fluffy. Ofc if it stays colder I could see ratios going up. I really prefer snow that doesn't quickly settle, sublimate, or evap for that matter Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 GRR's warming up the WWA button.. Yet another surface low will pass to our SE Christmas Eve Day andNight. There will also be a surface low moving across the SuperiorRegion in the time frame. These systems will also have better upperlevel support, as a long wave upper trough comes through Sundayevening. Expect the snow field will be more widespread, coveringmuch of the CWA. On top of this, we will get within the true arcticair by Sunday night, helping flare up the lake effect snows. TheChristmas Eve Day & Night should be a snowy one. Expect we will see3 to 5 inches south of I-96 and also along the lakeshore from thecombination of the system snow and the lake effect. Areas north andeast of GRR should see 1 to 3 inches. Headlines appear likely giventhe higher impact with holiday travel. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 EURO did show 3-5 inches for along I-80 Saturday night and even the heaviest was a tad north of us. Alberta Clippers all winter have trended north so I think we are in a sweet spot here in Omaha Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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