Christmas Holiday Snow Event

[Tom]

12z NAM looks like its coming in a bit north and hits S IA better....doesn't look better for LNK....

[bud2380]

Yes! NAM took a jog north! clinging to every model run over here...

[bud2380]

The NAM also sped up dramatically from previous runs. A good six hours faster on the snow arrival in E Iowa.

[earthandturf]

Something to plow would be a nice Christmas present!

[Tom]

Seems to be trending towards the Euro...a bit better organized at 500mb which has been a trend...actually, LNK does alright but trended towards the southern edge of the 3" cut off...

[Tom]

12z NAM is creeping the 3" line close to Chicago...nice trends over here...looks like 2-3" for ORD which is better than what the 00z/06z runs showed earlier...

[bud2380]

I’m gonna blindly believe the NAM here. Not gonna look at any other models...

[Tom]

12z NAM...if models trend better after today's 12z suite, LOT may shift the WWA's a county or two north...I'm glad to see this slight bump north...

[Niko]

Currently getting some snow from the southern system. Just clipping SEMI. Everything white outside. Temp @ 32F.

[bud2380]

.16” qpf on the NAM for Iowa City. Showing 2.7” total snow

[bud2380]

3K NAM is about 30 miles south of the regular nam. Still about 2” for Iowa City, which I would take in a heartbeat

[Tom]

High Rez 12z NAM following trends as well....interesting Lehs feature showing up for NW IN....IndianaJohn/Hoosier may cash in...tough to forecast though...

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

HRRR is agreeing with what the 12z NAM suite...

 

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

[Niko]

Perhaps WWA's will be posted later this afternoon or early tomorrow morning w this potent clipper on Sunday and into early Monday.

[Snowlover76]

Gee right on the edge here

[Money]

Go north!

[gabel23]

Snow has started a little earlier than projected last night! Flakes are getting bigger, earlier this morning they were small as small can be! We might sneak out 4" from this, I'm liking the trends!! 

[Tom]

Snow has started a little earlier than projected last night! Flakes are getting bigger, earlier this morning they were small as small can be! We might sneak out 4" from this, I'm liking the trends!

Happy be-lated B Day gift from mother nature...

[Snowlover76]

Go north!

No!

[gabel23]

I love the new addition this year in Hastings; they give the probabilities of snow for the CWA. Late to the party as a lot of places already do this but it's pretty cool! 

 

 

 Shelby, NE 2 3 3 100% 98% 81% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

[gabel23]

Happy be-lated B Day gift from mother nature...

No kidding Tom!! Hopefully this thing surprises and gives us all a white christmas! 

[Jaycee]

HRRR looks good for LNK. Think somebody will score 6” out of this somewhere

[gabel23]

HRRR looks good for LNK. Think somebody will score 6” out of this somewhere

I think you guys in Lincoln stand a great chance of seeing 3-6". These type of set-ups tend to favor your region. I think anyone between the Platte river and the I-80 corridor in Eastern Nebraska should average 3-4". Cheers to a white x-mas! 

[bud2380]

Canadian give i80 corridor 1-1.5” in Iowa. I’ll be happy with that. Just glad that it’s looking like I won’t get shut out entirely

[Tom]

12z Ukie is the wettest thus far today...let’s see what the Euro shows.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Rap model has over 3 inches...sounds good to me!

[Hawkeye]

12z euro... yesterday's 12z, which had the peak snow band down I-80, was a one-run wonder.  It appears I may get my first measurable snowfall of the season, but that's all.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122312/mw/ecmwf_t_precip_mw_48.png

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122312/greatlakes/ecmwf_t_precip_greatlakes_48.png

[midwest buildit]

Something to plow would be a nice Christmas present!

Would love for that to happen also.

[bud2380]

I said all along I’d be happy with 1”. Even though I’m just going to miss out on heavier snow , I would be satisfied with 1”.

[Iowawx]

Is it possible to tell if this is coming any further north or south than what models are suggesting? I am hoping to get at least an inch out of this and it looks like I have a chance of having that happen. 

[Grizzcoat]

Going against my wishes but I think the trend per RAP/HRRR and surface obs is just a tad South. Personally don't trust HRRR/RAP past 7-8 hours but appears to be drier and colder further N. Just my .02

[bud2380]

It’s hard to tell right now because nothing is really going on yet on radar. Models are forecasting snow to break out for much of central and western Nebraska in the next 2-4 hours. We should know more then hopefully

[bud2380]

18z nam south from the 12z

[FV-Mike]

Kane, DuPage and Cook added to WWA

[St Paul Storm]

Models now even showing some light snow here on Christmas Eve evening. 1/2” expected. Snow for everyone this Christmas!

[bud2380]

Winter weather advisory added for my county and the i80 corridor in eastern Iowa.

[bud2380]

The HRRR misses almost all of E Iowa except the bottom two row of counties. Sure hope that’s wrong.

[westMJim]

For what it is worth GRR has now issued a WWA for late tomorrow into Christmas day. I added the sarcasm because of a couple of the recent past WWA for our area did not pan out that well.  Had one for snow that turned out to be a sunny day and then one for FR that did not pan out either. Will have to see if they strike out on this one.

[Tony]

Forget the models and look to the radar otherwise you will drive yourself insane. They are worthless at this stage. Actually at all stages.