12/28 - 12/29 Plains/MW/GL's Snow Event

[james1976]

Euro has been drier all along. GFS prolly more accurate with temps.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Nwlinncounty ia guy only ssying that cause he prefers the gfs cause it gives him snow lol

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I mean EURO

[St Paul Storm]

15z SREF plumes with a mean of 4” at MSP. No real high or low outliers skewing the mean either. Nice cluster between 3-5”. We’ll see how this unfolds once the radar lights up. The models were fairly consistent for many days leading up to this. Would be a shame for this thing to die out now.

[james1976]

I wonder if DMX will still issue advisory. They have a special weather statement now regarding the expected snow.

[NEJeremy]

Nwlinncounty ia guy only ssying that cause he prefers the gfs cause it gives him snow lol

Craig- The GFS has been crap for amounts. You live in Omaha. Look out your window and see all the snow we didn't get that was forecasted. Euro has been much more accurate on amounts of snow. Placement has been different between the two.

[hlcater]

Nwlinncounty ia guy only ssying that cause he prefers the gfs cause it gives him snow lol

What? I've been dissing the GFS this whole week, and the Euro is the drier(and more realistic) of the two models. If you were expecting 12" of snow in single digits, you're only fixing to be let down.

[hlcater]

Nwlinncounty ia guy only ssying that cause he prefers the gfs cause it gives him snow lol

Also I want you to justify this Facebook post of yours. Seriously?? 

 

[bud2380]

Euro has a stripe of .1-.2” qpf directly through Iowa City and Cedar Rapids Friday. With high ratios could be a 2-4” event. I’ll hold my breath.

[NEJeremy]

Look at these amounts the GFS has kept spitting out for this week. Some of these of course include next weekend yet to come, but it seems we're seeing a trend here with the GFS. Way too wet!!

 

 

This was the GFS forecast through tonight into Thursday for only 84 hours out. 8" for Omaha?

 

 

This was a 5 day total through this Saturday showing a foot to a foot and a half over a large chunk of Iowa

[bud2380]

Those GFS maps make no sense. COD must be using 50:1 ratios to get those snow amounts.

[Iowawx]

Euro has a stripe of .1-.2” qpf directly through Iowa City and Cedar Rapids Friday. With high ratios could be a 2-4” event. I’ll hold my breath.

What time on Friday does that begin in the Cedar Rapids area?

[bud2380]

Looks to start after noon on Friday per the euro.

 

[bud2380]

DVN completely punted on the Friday forecast in the AFD.

[Jaycee]

Still confused if I'm on the right storm lol but the storm on the GFS is starting to trend towards the EURO. King might win out on this, clearly that's what the WFO out here has been going with. No Bueno for us out here in LNK.

[Jaycee]

Also I want you to justify this Facebook post of yours. Seriously?? 

 

 

 

 

Funny enough, I had 4 people send this post to me and say "omg how". I just don't like the wording, I have no problem showing it, but instead of saying "prepare now" why not just say "potential for this... stay tuned"; my friends are buying into it because of the wording, and they shouldn't be.  

[NEJeremy]

Those GFS maps make no sense. COD must be using 50:1 ratios to get those snow amounts.

They are high ratios(some kind of Kuchera method), but even if you look at actual qpf amounts, it was forecasting nearly .6" of moisture in Iowa on that bottom run of the 120 hour through Saturday. Like I said, GFS has been way too wet.

[Jaycee]

They are high ratios(some kind of Kuchera method), but even if you look at actual qpf amounts, it was forecasting nearly .6" of moisture in Iowa on that bottom run of the 120 hour through Saturday. Like I said, GFS has been way too wet.

 

 

So what're you thinking as of now? Honestly, with the cold temperatures, we might not even get a dusting from the recent trends

[james1976]

Theres absolutely no talk in here of tonight's event lol

[Tabitha]

Snow is falling in NE Nebraska; per radar...

 

Norfolk reporting some light snow at 4 PM.

[Niko]

Look at these amounts the GFS has kept spitting out for this week. Some of these of course include next weekend yet to come, but it seems we're seeing a trend here with the GFS. Way too wet!!

 

18Z GFS 1224 168 hr.png

 

12Z GFS 1225 84 hr.png

This was the GFS forecast through tonight into Thursday for only 84 hours out. 8" for Omaha?

 

12Z 1225 156hr.png

 

0Z GFS 1226 120 hr.png

This was a 5 day total through this Saturday showing a foot to a foot and a half over a large chunk of Iowa

It will get very active!

[Niko]

Prolly nada, but cannot rule out an inch or 2 for MBY. IMHO, I think the dry air will eat out any moisture.

[NEJeremy]

So what're you thinking as of now? Honestly, with the cold temperatures, we might not even get a dusting from the recent trends

yeah everything keeps getting lowered once we get closer to the actual event. The NAM is now spitting out .25-.3" of qpf in Iowa through Saturday's storm which seems the most reasonable if even that won't end up being a bit too high. 18Z GFS now is in that range too, when it used to show 2x that amount. With these cold temps and high ratios, that could be 4-5" if someone is lucky enough to get hit by both waves. it seems though the ratios haven't always been working out. I know our airport reported an 8:1 ratio on the snowfall before Christmas when the temps were in the teens.

Until we get actual southwest flow that was supposed to be happening by now and heck even a bit warmer temps, I don't see anything more than these nickel and dimers continuing. But hey, at least it's horribly cold!!

[NEJeremy]

It will get very active!

It already is active. We're getting "clippered to death" with a storm somewhere in this region every couple of days. Nice to see storms, bad if you'd like to get a big snowstorm or blizzard. The issue is if we're wanting a big storm, it's not going to happen in this pattern. 

[Tabitha]

 I don't see anything more than these nickel and dimers continuing.

 

There's no free lunch

There's no free time

There's no ladder

I'm going to climb

 

I'd rather lead

A life of crime

Than just get

Nickeled & dimed

[Snowlover76]

I don't mind clippers.

[gabel23]

It already is active. We're getting "clippered to death" with a storm somewhere in this region every couple of days. Nice to see storms, bad if you'd like to get a big snowstorm or blizzard. The issue is if we're wanting a big storm, it's not going to happen in this pattern. 

You could have a blizzard with a saskatchewan screamer or alberta clipper. Believe it or not, the 1888 blizzard was brought on by an alberta clipper. I would love to see one of those; but your right we need a colorado low to get a true blizzard. Honestly, if we manage to get one of those this winter I would be happy; this winter has already been better than last years IMO. 

[gabel23]

There's no free lunch

There's no free time

There's no ladder

I'm going to climb

 

I'd rather lead

A life of crime

Than just get

Nickeled & dimed

  that's funny shizzit! 

[Tom]

Looks like some decent bands of snow are sliding closer to DSM...

[Money]

I don't mind clippers.

Lol that’s not what you said a few weeks ago

[Snowlover76]

Lol that’s not what you said a few weeks ago

Dude get off my back.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Also I want you to justify this Facebook post of yours. Seriously?? 

 

Don't need to justify anything! Thank you though! 

[Niko]

It already is active. We're getting "clippered to death" with a storm somewhere in this region every couple of days. Nice to see storms, bad if you'd like to get a big snowstorm or blizzard. The issue is if we're wanting a big storm, it's not going to happen in this pattern. 

Awesome stuff bud...enjoy!

[Craig-OmahaWX]

And no my post isnt alarming at all. -30 to -40 windchills is life threatening. Even -20 is from last night. This scenario has showed up for over a week consistently and im not hyping anything. Thanks

[St Paul Storm]

Theres absolutely no talk in here of tonight's event lol

This winter has sucked in terms of snow so far, but it’s still tough to find enough to talk about with a 1-3” event. Don’t get me wrong. I’m looking forward to a fresh few inches by tomorrow morning though. But it’s just not all that exciting.

[hlcater]

And no my post isnt alarming at all. -30 to -40 windchills is life threatening. Even -20 is from last night. This scenario has showed up for over a week consistently and im not hyping anything. Thanks

You aren't hyping anything? Yet you post a GFS clown run when you know full well(or at least I hope you do) that the GFS has been way too cold in this pattern? It's been correcting warmer since the onset of this pattern before Christmas. Remember the 1060+ mb high that came out of Canada on the GFS run after run? Where is it? Oh right, that was overdone. It's showing another 1060mb high again in the day 5 range. While this could happen, given that the contiguous US record for high pressure is 1064mb, I would strongly weigh against a high of that magnitude occurring.

 

Not only that, but the GFS is also showing 850s around -20c and surface temps around -30c. Next, lets take a look at a Skew-T pulled from the date that you refer to on your Facebook page. See that massive inversion to a "torchy" -18c? I would think that it would be very difficult to realize the amount of radiational cooling needed to cool the temperature that much and leave an inversion that large. I'm sure that the high pressure which is bound to be in place would certainly help in that regard, but the euro(with a similar strength high, which I still don't buy(I should really be a poet)) only gets temps down to ~-10 degrees. While the Euro doesn't have public soundings, I am sure it looks a whole lot more realistic than the inversion that the GFS is spitting out. Since the Euro under a markedly similar setup is over 20 degrees warmer than the GFS, whose output just looks unrealistic(and has been under similar setups this month), your Facebook post lacks the grounding to make the sort of claims that it did. Feel free to quote this post when the GFS verifies though.

http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/gfs_2017122718_114_41.75--96.5.png

[Tom]

This winter has sucked in terms of snow so far, but it’s still tough to find enough to talk about with a 1-3” event. Don’t get me wrong. I’m looking forward to a fresh few inches by tomorrow morning though. But it’s just not all that exciting.

True, but I'm not going complain since we were lucky enough to get a white Christmas even though it has been a warmer than normal month overall around here.  Hope I can score a couple inches through Friday.  Might get lucky and get some LES over the weekend as well.

[NEJeremy]

about to get into some decent returns here. so far it's been snowing pixie dust, and just enough to coat the ground. we'll see if the flakes get much bigger

[Bryan1117]

Here on the west side of Omaha we managed to get under an enhanced band of snow... snowing moderately with some larger flakes even on the southwest side of town, it looks like we are going to get a little more than just a dusting tonight here.

 

And in the last couple of minutes the snow has picked up even more with the visibility dropping, I wasn’t expecting much of anything tonight snow-wise so this is a nice surprise.

[Tom]

Grizz and Toasted are about to see the flakes fly...