January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[jaster220]

Well, December's final numbers for MBY are as follows:

 

Snowfall: 22.5"

Temps: -3.2F below normal

 

Very impressive, indeed.

Very impressive indeed, but I still BEAT you in the end with my 24.2"! Way to talk smack tho while you were temporarily in the lead. :-P :-P

 

Oh, and Happy New Year to ya Niko!! ;-)

[westMJim]

Climatology for today January 1^stt     At Grand Rapids, MI

The average H/L for today in Grand Rapids is 30/20

The record high is 56° set in 1897 the record coldest maximum is 13° set in 1968

The record low is -15° set in 1968 the warmest minimum is 40° set in 1950

The most snow fall is 5.7” in 1995

The most on the ground is 12” in 2001

Last year the high was 39 the low was 23 and there was no snow on the ground.

 

Side not as Jaster220 stated the ground is not frozen very deep here in west Michigan and that is true in much of norther Michigan as well as we get snow cover way before the ground gets very cold. 

[Tom]

HAPPY NEW YEAR 

 

Here at my house for the 2^nd nigh in a row received 0.25” of new snow. And with the light snow I am getting at this time it now has snow here in Grand Rapids ever day for the last 12 days.  With the compacting of the snow I now have 10.5” on the ground here. December mean temperature was 24.4° making this the coldest December here since December 2000, That December Grand Rapids recorded 59.2” of snow fall BUT January 2001 there was only 4.1” of snow fall.

Happy New Year!  Like many on here, I'm always impressed with your stats.  Keep up the good work in 2018!  BTW, I would love to be in your position and have the streak of days with snow falling at your place.  This week, I'm sure your going to add in that dept with the LES that is forecast to hit around the Wed-Fri period.

[jaster220]

That’s quite the storm off the east coast (euro gets it down to 945 mb)

  

I'm sure the east coast snow geese are salivating for this thing to track farther west.  What a tease this would be to track just enough far offshore to only graze the Boston area.

After they've had 4 decades worth of Big Dogs since 2004, plus the epic 2015 season, you expect me to be sympathetic if they should get teased/missed? They have a decade worth of teases coming if all is fair or right, lol

[Minny_Weather]

Forgot to say what the temp was on my balcony this morning! Oh well. Right now it is -8 but the wind is calm.

[Niko]

Very impressive indeed, but I still BEAT you in the end with my 24.2"! Way to talk smack tho while you were temporarily in the lead. :-P :-P

I didn't know we were racing. Dude, you are in a snowbelt area, how can you possibly compare SWMI w SEMI and have hopes to BEAT me. If you like racing so much, let me know other ways you like to challenge me! Us New Yorkers have many possible ways.

[Niko]

Currently, at 10F w a slight breeze. Plenty of Sunshine.

[jaster220]

Gem destroys them lol

Per AmWx chatta, this storm is supposed to cause a more favorable re-alignment of the stagnant 500 mb pattern. Some dude had a good post. He's like a techno-worded version of Tom, lol

[hlcater]

Per AmWx chatta, this storm is supposed to cause a more favorable re-alignment of the stagnant 500 mb pattern. Some dude had a good post. He's like a techno-worded version of Tom, lol

Isotherm?

[Niko]

  

After they've had 4 decades worth of Big Dogs since 2004, plus the epic 2015 season, you expect me to be sympathetic if they should get teased/missed? They have a decade worth of teases coming if all is fair or right, lol

Why not...The Atlantic Ocean is what helps them get the "Big Dogs". Nothing wrong w that. You get moisture from there and GOM and you get a major EC snowstorm. Of course, getting the benchmark track plays a big role.

[Money]

12z gfs is a good hit for most of WI

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2018010112&fh=162&r=us_mw&dpdt=

[Minny_Weather]

Don't have a good feeling about this. I think this will be another S MN special which misses a lot of us.

[Niko]

Oh Boy......

[Snowlover76]

Why not...The Atlantic Ocean is what helps them get the "Big Dogs". Nothing wrong w that. You get moisture from there and GOM and you get a major EC snowstorm. Of course, getting the benchmark track plays a big role.

Meh. Those weenies are spoiled rotten. Look at nyc and their big storm history, prior to 1996 they hardly ever got storms over 8". Now they get them all the time

[Tom]

Surfs up!  Brave soul out on the water near MKE...

 

[jaster220]

Isotherm?

Don't have a good feeling about this. I think this will be another S MN special which misses a lot of us.

Already snow down at h144! Someone in MN should take the lead and kick off a thread!

[Tom]

Already snow down at h144! Someone in MN should take the lead and kick off a thread!

 

Already snow down at h144! Someone in MN should take the lead and kick off a thread!

12z GEFS look better down this way actually...let's see what the 12z Euro shows in a bit.

[jaster220]

Isotherm?

Yep, that's the post..

[NEJeremy]

So now it looks like next weekend’s storm goes way north of here as once again the southwest flow and Colorado low storm goes bye bye. At least it’s going to warm up! #FooledYouAgain

[NEJeremy]

Omaha broke their 130 year record hitting -20 this morning

[Money]

12z GEFS look better down this way actually...let's see what the 12z Euro shows in a bit.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2018010112&fh=162&xpos=0&ypos=0

 

Looks like a lot have a stronger southern low?

[jaster220]

Meh. Those weenies are spoiled rotten. Look at nyc and their big storm history, prior to 1996 they hardly ever got storms over 8". Now they get them all the time

This! They've gotten your BD's. There has developed a major imbalance from Neb to Maine with a total bias to greater frequency of BD's. The further east you go, the greater the bias has accumulated. Someone from that sub posted last winter that Eastern Long Island up thru Boston and Maine was running 400% of normal for BD's since that streak began. Crazy stuff! I'd argue that everyone in this sub west of MI deserves a BD before that region cashes in again. I'd like to see one of those peeps endure what you Plains peeps have gone thru. Doubt they'd make it tbh. Would certainly change their perspective!

[Tom]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2018010112&fh=162&xpos=0&ypos=0

 

Looks like a lot have a stronger southern low?

More southern members showed up this run and seem to have that look the 12z GGEM showed.

[Niko]

Meh. Those weenies are spoiled rotten. Look at nyc and their big storm history, prior to 1996 they hardly ever got storms over 8". Now they get them all the time

Why are they weenies? You are not??!! Have ya ever lived there? Probably not!

[Money]

More southern members showed up this run and seem to have that look the 12z GGEM showed.

Do you have the total snowfall for the ensembles by any chance?

[jaster220]

Surfs up!  Brave soul out on the water near MKE...

 

Lol @ 3rd Coast surfing. You don't "ride" the wave, you flatten it! Brave? I'd question sanity first. Lol

[Tom]

Do you have the total snowfall for the ensembles by any chance?

 

2-3” mean across MN/WI/N IA/N IL/MI/N IN

[Niko]

Gorgeous day today w plenty of sunshine and temps in the teens. Tbh, I have gotten used to this frigid weather now, so it feels nice out.

 

Have lots of guests coming today. I am hosting friends and family. Busy day on tap. Hopefully, they leave early.

[Money]

Euro looks interesting at hr 144

[Tom]

Euro looks interesting at hr 144

Indeed, both UKIE and Euro showing the CO Low feature. Let’s see where this goes.

[Money]

999 L in southern/central MO at 168

[Madtown]

Coasties...lol....made it to 0!

[Tom]

12z Euro with an interesting turn of events and focusing on the southern energy...

[Tom]

Euro keeps intensifying this storm as it tracks across S MW into OV...

[Money]

Precip starts to explode in Iowa/N MO through 150

[Tom]

Classic CO Low into a Lower Lakes cutter on the 12z Euro today...Euro just fooled ya...

[Money]

Chicago into IN/lower MI with 6+ this run

[BrianJK]

:lol:

 

Parts of northern FL gets accumulating snow.

 

About as accurate as the maps have been in our area. 

[centralweather44]

Anyone have the euro they can post?

[hlcater]

after the storm on the euro, looks like we go back in the freezer. Yay.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018010112/216/850tw.conus.png