January Weather In the PNW

[luvssnow_spokane]

Going wrong at 192 hours though.

 

Patience wise one... future runs could improve

[TT-SEA]

Interesting...mmmmm

 

4156876B-64E7-41CB-A182-AB4F7CBDB7CD.png

 

But cold air gets scoured out more by then...

 

[wx_statman]

And that property is close to the coast. Further inland is even cheaper...But even a cold weather enthusiast such as myself might have a hard time dealing with an upper Maine winter... 

 

 

Once you get towards #9 or 10 it gets kind of tough so I stayed with a top 8. I think those events kind of stand alone. There are quite a few events I think that could make a solid case for #9 or 10... I don't think even December 2013 gets close to that top 8 though, even though it is pretty clearly the most significant arctic outbreak of the 21st century so far...

 

 

I have a friend who is a real estate broker, he is in his 60s so he has been around a while. He talks a lot about the 70s and 80s and how dirt cheap things were back then. That was a very hard time economically for the Valley as our economy transitioned away from timber. My family was part of one of the first mass exoduses from California back in the late 80s. We sold our tiny 800 square foot home in east county San Diego for 110K and bought the 2,000 square foot farmhouse on 10 acres near Silverton where my Dad still lives to this day for 105K. A lot of the movement from California to Oregon back then was for the same reason we are seeing it today. It was just not affordable to raise a family in Southern California because of the housing prices, when we moved to Silverton a lot of my friends growing up were friends who I had known in San Diego and whose families moved to the Salem/Silverton area around the same time. 

 

That's interesting. I never knew about that particular dynamic.

[BLI snowman]

Justin must be upset. He wants it all GONE!!

 

Not really too worried about the next week. Whatever happens within 500 miles of here will not be remotely interesting or consequential.

[Gradient Keeper]

I see some room for improvement day 4-7 too.

[luvssnow_spokane]

But cold air is significantly scoured out of Western Canada between 168 and 192 hours on this run.

 

Yep but much improved run with very little warning... potential

[TT-SEA]

Patience wise one... future runs could improve

 

True.   Trend is our friend through the reasonable 168-hour period.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I guess I knew you were originally from San Diego... but totally forgot.  

 

Where did you live down there?  Santee or Ramona?   How old were you when you moved?

 

My sons were born at Mary Birch Hospital... maybe you were too.   

 

We did not live that far east. We actually lived in the city itself. I was 5 when we moved to Oregon, so I remember the house and the neighborhood, but not a lot in terms of its relation to things. 

 

I know we lived on the way out to Lemon Grove, but not quite that far east. It wasn't a great area, but we lived on a nice cult-a-sac. One of our neighbors a few doors down was on the city council, I can't remember his name, only that he was African American and in later years he would always get us free tickets to the zoo and Sea World when we would come down to visit my grandmother who is 93 and still lives in the Grossmont neighborhood. 

 

My mom worked in Escondido, and taught ESL/Bilingual. When my parents decided to move to Oregon she applied at the Salem/Keizer school district, flew to PDX, was interviewed at the airport and offered a job on the spot, as they were desperate for Spanish speaking teachers at the time. We moved up in August 89' and they bought the farm in November, my mom would live the rest of her life there and my Dad has been there 28 years now (The house itself turned 100 years old in 2017.). He talked about selling it a couple years ago, but decided at least for now against it, 10 acres is a lot to manage when you are in your late 60s and still work full time over an hour away, but I think he was more attached than he realized. It was a great place to grow up.

[ShawniganLake]

Unbelievable. What do working families do? I imagine wages have not caught up?

 

In some ways you would think that Canada would have lower property values than the US given it is so much geographically larger with only about 10% of the population. But of course I am ignorant of a lot of other factors, such as how much private land ownership there is in Canada, the history of home ownership in the country, etc...

It’s getting tougher for sure. And rent isn’t much cheaper than a mortgage. The only reason we could afford to live here is because I bought into the market when I was in my early 20s and traded up when the market was in a down time in 2013/14. I couldn’t afford this house today. Not even close. Median household income locally is roughly ~75,000 and we are very close to that.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The overall 500mb pattern is showing some real positive and significant changes that could help us... maybe my prediction of showing something good in 5 days or less will come true... the power of positive thinking... lol!!

 

[Front Ranger]

But the 300 hr GFS is a given, guys...

[psnow]

Anyone on here that truly believes Trump is illiterate needs to have their head examined.  The liberal MSM has sadly fried your brain.

Ignorance is bliss.  Keep on believing that thought!

[TT-SEA]

We did not live that far east. We actually lived in the city itself. I was 5 when we moved to Oregon, so I remember the house and the neighborhood, but not a lot in terms of its relation to things. 

 

I know we lived on the way out to Lemon Grove, but not quite that far east. It wasn't a great area, but we lived on a nice cult-a-sac. One of our neighbors a few doors down was on the city council, I can't remember his name, only that he was African American and in later years he would always get us free tickets to the zoo and Sea World when we would come down to visit my grandmother who is 93 and still lives in the Grossmont neighborhood. 

 

My mom worked in Escondido, and taught ESL/Bilingual. When my parents decided to move to Oregon she applied at the Salem/Keizer school district, flew to PDX, was interviewed at the airport and offered a job on the spot, as they were desperate for Spanish speaking teachers at the time. We moved up in August 89' and they bought the farm in November, my mom would live the rest of her life there and my Dad has been there 28 years now (The house itself turned 100 years old in 2017.). He talked about selling it a couple years ago, but decided at least for now against it, 10 acres is a lot to manage when you are in your late 60s and still work full time over an hour away, but I think he was more attached than he realized. It was a great place to grow up.

 

We lived in an apartment in Hillcrest (we could walk to the Balboa Park and the Zoo) when first moved to San Diego in 1992.   Then we moved to Mission Valley... then to Rancho Penasquitos... and then we built a house in Hidden Meadows which is about half way between Escondido and Fallbrook and directly above the Lawrence Welk Resort.    

 

We moved because we suddenly realized that schools were very important when we found out that we were having twins... and our choices were the Escondido or Valley Center school districts and both were less than ideal.    And we missed greenery and trees.    But we did not want to give up mountains.   So... we found a spot with both close but still close to a major metro area.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Easy lots of Americans are falling thru the cracks

 

1)record # of Americans on disability (Social security and Va)

2) record # of Americans no longer in workforce

3) record # receving food stamps

4) record # of Americans in debt (student loans)

5) stagnant wages

 

Lots of people in California working jobs living in cars.

 

No doubt the western world headed towards a massive crises bigger than 2008

 

I’m typing this on iPhone so forgive my grammar

 

Generally during the day I am posting from an iPhone which auto-corrects almost half of what I type. So frustrating. 

 

I don't know that we are headed for a bigger crisis than 2008, but if it gets us a similar winter I am down...Just kidding...But there are definitely a lot of issues. I think a tight housing market also limits geographical mobility which limits people economically. 

[Bryant]

Not really buying the extended jet solution the GFS threw up tonight. Subsidence over the Pacific with convection over the MC would lead to a more blocky Pacific

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The overall 500mb pattern is showing some real positive and significant changes that could help us... maybe my prediction of showing something good in 5 days or less will come true... the power of positive thinking... lol!!

 

78576095-E266-43B5-BE46-144804BAB657.png

Don't get your hopes up. That's not the pattern we want.

[Gradient Keeper]

At least we have solid model agreement to end the split flow after day 7-8. Good riddance

[luvssnow_spokane]

Not really buying the extended jet solution the GFS threw up tonight. Subsidence over the Pacific with convection over the MC would lead to a more blocky Pacific

I agree... the euro could be onto something.

[TT-SEA]

The overall 500mb pattern is showing some real positive and significant changes that could help us... maybe my prediction of showing something good in 5 days or less will come true... the power of positive thinking... lol!!

 

78576095-E266-43B5-BE46-144804BAB657.png

 

On thing I have learned... good stuff can suddenly show up in the models and not that far out.   

[luvssnow_spokane]

Don't get your hopes up. That's not the pattern we want.

Agreed, I am looking at the bigger picture with greater potential. It is not there yet but at least the EURO, threw us a bone rather than puking up a slobbered, partially eatin, bile coated, bone on our feet.

[Front Ranger]

I believe I read recently that Vancouver is the least affordable city for housing in north America, based on wages to cost.

 

I also believe Seattle, Denver, and possibly Portland were all in the top 10, as appreciation has far outpaced wage growth for years.

 

But there are signs locally at least that appreciation is really slowing down, and wages are picking up. Not all doom and gloom, though there are definitely cheaper places to live.

[BLI snowman]

Disappointing Euro. Pattern continues to look like a soiled El Nino diaper in a Walmart bathroom.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We lived in an apartment in Hillcrest (we could walk to the Balboa Park and the Zoo) when first moved to San Diego in 1992.   Then we moved to Mission Valley... then to Rancho Penasquitos... and then we built a house in Hidden Meadows which about half way between Escondido and Fallbrook and directly above the Lawrence Welk Resort.    

 

We moved because we suddenly realized that schools were very important when we found out were having twins... and our choices were the Escondido or Valley Center school districts and both were less than ideal.    And we missed greenery and trees.    But we did not want to give up mountains.   So... we found a spot with both close but still close to a major metro area.  

 

That is funny. Oregon was a compromise for my parents. My Dad grew up in Kentucky so he missed the greenery. The original plan was to move to North Carolina, probably somewhere in the Asheville area, but my Mom did not want to leave the West Coast as all of her family was here. Her brother moved up to Bellingham from San Diego in 1988, but her parents and sister still lived down there so Oregon was good middle ground. Also my Dad was really into gardening and wanted a small farm, and the Willamette Valley was a bit better from a climate perspective for that. 

 

My sister who is ten years older than me went to high school and undergraduate up here, but then moved back to San Diego for grad school and now lives with her family in Murrieta. 

 

Down to 31 now. 

[Front Ranger]

Disappointing Euro. Pattern continues to look like a soiled El Nino diaper in a Walmart bathroom.

It only needs a little more retrogression of the pattern and energy to break off south of the aleutians to get good.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I believe I read recently that Vancouver is the least affordable city for housing in north America, based on wages to cost.

 

I also believe Seattle, Denver, and possibly Portland were all in the top 10, as appreciation has far outpaced wage growth for years.

 

But there are signs locally at least that appreciation is really slowing down, and wages are picking up. Not all doom and gloom, though there are definitely cheaper places to live.

 

I follow the Denver market a bit, since that is one area I might end up eventually. A good job market, but a lot closer to my oldest kids. I probably wouldn't want to live to close to Denver, probably down toward Colorado Springs. Prices don't seem a lot different than here...At least in Colorado Springs, pretty similar to Salem price wise, which is about 20-30% less than Portland. 

[TT-SEA]

That is funny. Oregon was a compromise for my parents. My Dad grew up in Kentucky so he missed the greenery. The original plan was to move to North Carolina, probably somewhere in the Asheville area, but my Mom did not want to leave the West Coast as all of her family was here. Her brother moved up to Bellingham from San Diego in 1988, but her parents and sister still lived down there so Oregon was good middle ground. Also my Dad was really into gardening and wanted a small farm, and the Willamette Valley was a bit better from a climate perspective for that. 

 

My sister who is ten years older than me went to high school and undergraduate up here, but then moved back to San Diego for grad school and now lives with her family in Murrieta. 

 

Down to 31 now. 

 

We have good friends in Temecula.   She actually just posted a pic of snow in Temecula right after Christmas in 2014... it was a good 2-3 inches.   I also spent lots of time doing software consulting for Pechanga Casino when it was just trailers and they were building the main building and hotel.

 

And of course my wife's sister and family and my sister and family live in San Diego.    Both of our sisters came out at different times to escape Minnesota cold and live with us for awhile and then ended up meeting their future husbands and never left.   They were not happy when we left.  

[BLI snowman]

It only needs a little more retrogression of the pattern and energy to break off south of the aleutians to get good.

 

The models are coming closer to just bottling that midmonth airmass up in Canada altogether, some pretty dramatic changes these last 48 hours. Blocking no bueno.

 

00z on Tuesday

 

 

00z now

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Disappointing Euro. Pattern continues to look like a soiled El Nino diaper in a Walmart bathroom.

It was a much improved pattern over previous runs...

[luvssnow_spokane]

The models are coming closer to just bottling that midmonth airmass up in Canada altogether, some pretty dramatic changes these last 48 hours. Blocking no bueno.

 

00z on Tuesday

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

 

00z now

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

Possibly... but I feel you are wrong

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We have good friends in Temecula.   She actually just posted a pic of snow in Temecula right after Christmas in 2014... it was a good 2-3 inches.   I also spent lots of time doing software consulting for Pechanga Casino when it was just trailers and they were building the main building and hotel.

 

And of course my wife's sister and family and my sister and family live in San Diego.    Both sisters came out at different times to escape MN cold and live with us for awhile and then ended up meeting their future husbands and never left.   They were not happy when we left.  

 

My mom's family was from Erie, PA/Buffalo, NY. They literally all moved to San Diego in the early 60s, as in not just her immediate family, but the entire extended family as well. As she put it her dad was tired of getting off work and trying to figure out which drift his car was buried under. San Diego in the early 60s must have seemed like paradise in comparison to Buffalo.

 

My sister had snow at her place with that event too...She was pretty excited. I don't think she had seen snow since she graduated from college 20 years ago. 

[BLI snowman]

Possibly... but I feel you are wrong

 

There's just not much potential there, dude. Best to just keep on thinking well ahead and hoping for us to finally score an active pattern.

[Phil]

Disappointing Euro. Pattern continues to look like a soiled El Nino diaper in a Walmart bathroom.

Looks better than the 12z, at least.

[Front Ranger]

I follow the Denver market a bit, since that is one area I might end up eventually. A good job market, but a lot closer to my oldest kids. I probably wouldn't want to live to close to Denver, probably down toward Colorado Springs. Prices don't seem a lot different than here...At least in Colorado Springs, pretty similar to Salem price wise, which is about 20-30% less than Portland.

Yeah, the springs is about 35-40% cheaper than Denver, but way less jobs of course.

[TT-SEA]

My mom's family was from Erie, PA/Buffalo, NY. They literally all moved to San Diego in the early 60s, as in not just her immediate family, but the entire extended family as well. As she put it her dad was tired of getting off work and trying to figure out which drift his car was buried under. San Diego in the early 60s must have seemed like paradise in comparison to Buffalo.

 

My sister had snow at her place with that event too...She was pretty excited. I don't think she had seen snow since she graduated from college 20 years ago. 

 

 

My sister and sister-in-law both think San Diego is still a paradise.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There's just not much potential there, dude. Best to just keep on thinking well ahead and hoping for us to finally score an active pattern.

Haven't disagreed with you once today. Still spot on. 

 

My sister and sister-in-law both think San Diego is still a paradise.  

 

I actually have not been to San Diego since my brother and I drove there in late December 2005 to watch the Holiday Bowl. But I like San Diego, it is very nice. But I would not want to live there. Growing up in the country, a big city like that is anathema to me. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty cool the forum got so off topic tonight, but no one bickered or took things to far. And when there was a trolling attempt earlier it was largely ignored. 

[Bryant]

Possibly... but I feel you are wrong

 

Hmmm... believe your gut, or believe the models... tough choice! 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It’s getting tougher for sure. And rent isn’t much cheaper than a mortgage. The only reason we could afford to live here is because I bought into the market when I was in my early 20s and traded up when the market was in a down time in 2013/14. I couldn’t afford this house today. Not even close. Median household income locally is roughly ~75,000 and we are very close to that.

 

Victoria is getting there; in the 2 years since I bought this place the assessed house value has gone up by 43%. The island is actually outpacing the lower mainland now in terms of detached houses. It's crazy home many million dollar+ homes are popping up around Nanaimo - Qualicum; it's way out of line with incomes in that area. Probably mostly Vancouver home owners cashing out and buying mansions to replace their rundown 3 bedroom bungalows. I lucked out buying right before the jump, prior to that prices had been pretty flat since the recession.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Unfortunately the East Pacific Hadley Cell will probably deny you. That thing is monstrous yet again (it’s responsible for the warm SSTAs off Mexico and expansive area of subsidence across the Southwest this winter).

 

Has the East Pacific Hadley Cell been this large before in the past, or is the largest you have ever seen it? What will it take in order for it to shrink in size?  Also, do you think the warming Arctic is impacting the size / location of this cell in any manner?

[TT-SEA]

47 degrees and clear with a bright moon shining here this morning... 49 in North Bend. Looks like there might some light rain later this afternoon. Probably freezing rain at the pass with the cold air trapped at the surface.