January Weather In the PNW

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF at 240 hours... pretty sure none of us can find "potential" here.    We have been spared the day 10 curse tonight.   

 

[TT-SEA]

Nina strengthening a little... Phil was right that cooling would return.  

 

[ShawniganLake]

Its January.

Wow got a little ahead of myself. Maybe a few too many beers too.

[ShawniganLake]

Thankfully you are not missing out on your snow removal contracts this week.

 

#countyourblessings

This is true.

[Deweydog]

Very good show. The storylines are hit and miss, but the characters are always entertaining.

Well, we watched the first two episodes this evening. Twisted but very good.

[TT-SEA]

Well, we watched the first two episodes this evening. Twisted but very good.

 

I am in now into season 3... my wife is way behind since I usually stay up later.  

 

I love the realism... actually filmed in Chicago.   That is a real neighborhood and that is the real 'L' train roaring by with actual passengers.    Even the seasons and the weather follow along much nicer than most shows.  I know you pay close attention to that stuff too.  

 

And the characters are great... always enjoy watching Macy.  

 

But its starting to feel more like an all too neatly packaged formula TV series in the third season... introduce a challenging situation and it will get crazy and then all wrap up perfectly in one hour.    That might work when you are watching one episode a week and 12 episodes a year... but it becomes more noticeable and annoying when you are binge watching.    

 

Still enjoying it... and all of the seasons scored very high on Rotten Tomatoes.    Some seasons have a score of 100%.  

[TT-SEA]

EPS now showing signs that ridge will fade away in 2 weeks and zonal flow will return...

 

Day 10:

 

 

Day 15:

[umadbro]

EPS now showing signs that ridge will fade away in 2 weeks and zonal flow will return...

 

Day 10:

 

 

Day 15:

Cold wet spring, here we come!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Might not matter though... it probably will not rain much from mid-July to mid-August.  That is going to put you right back in the same situation.   

 

You'd think we ought to be due for a green July/August  .

[Phil]

EPS now showing signs that ridge will fade away in 2 weeks and zonal flow will return...

 

Day 10:

 

 

Day 15:

It won’t be that zonal. Some mishandling of wavetrains there for sure. In the end, that west-coast ridge will reamplify in mid-February following the deepening of the Aleutian trough/+PNA.

[Brennan]

Suffocating in the idea of no snow this winter over here. It’s not good.

[TT-SEA]

You'd think we ought to be due for a green July/August .

Pretty rare. I remember watering in July and August every year... even 2010 and 2011.

[AlTahoe]

It won’t be that zonal. Some mishandling of wavetrains there for sure. In the end, that west-coast ridge will reamplify in mid-February following the deepening of the Aleutian trough/+PNA.

If that is the case it means we will have gone through meteorological winter with exactly one winter storm that brought us 8" of snow for South Lake Tahoe. This would be unprecedented and would be far worse than the 1976, 1932, 2013, and 2014 winters for snowfall. It's looking like 3 of the top 5 least snowy winters will all of happened since 2013 up here. Records go back to the 1880's. This stretch is remarkable.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like we head back toward a more zonal flow later in the 12z GFS run. Good news. Obviously blocking is not going to deliver for us this year. Might as well salvage a snow pack on the west coast.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If that is the case it means we will have gone through meteorological winter with exactly one winter storm that brought us 8" of snow for South Lake Tahoe. This would be unprecedented and would be far worse than the 1976, 1932, 2013, and 2014 winters for snowfall. It's looking like 3 of the top 5 least snowy winters will all of happened since 2013 up here. Records go back to the 1880's. This stretch is remarkable.

 

This west coast ridge which has been dominant since 2013 has been pretty amazing. Tim will talk about the anomalous rainfall, and that is true. About Eugene north has been wet, but that is only part of the story. Much of that rain, as in the rain we will see tomorrow is heavy rain with warm fronts as that ridge re-asserts itself. Thus California gets nothing and here in the PNW we get mild temps and low snow pack.

[AlTahoe]

This west coast ridge which has been dominant since 2013 has been pretty amazing. Tim will talk about the anomalous rainfall, and that is true. About Eugene north has been wet, but that is only part of the story. Much of that rain, as in the rain we will see tomorrow is heavy rain with warm fronts as that ridge re-asserts itself. Thus California gets nothing and here in the PNW we get mild temps and low snow pack.

Last year was our wettest year ever recorded but it was all warm tropical systems. We received 160" of snow which was only 10" above average. We have seen very few cold fronts since Jan 2013. There has been a dramatic climate shift since that period up here. I wouldn't be surprised if we are averaging + 5F to +10F above our normal highs and lows since that period.

[TT-SEA]

This west coast ridge which has been dominant since 2013 has been pretty amazing. Tim will talk about the anomalous rainfall, and that is true. About Eugene north has been wet, but that is only part of the story. Much of that rain, as in the rain we will see tomorrow is heavy rain with warm fronts as that ridge re-asserts itself. Thus California gets nothing and here in the PNW we get mild temps and low snow pack.

 

12Z GFS shows 6 more days of warm front drizzle and occasional rain and then finally some dry weather.   

 

A deep trough and an active pattern would be fine (like yesterday) or some dry weather.   Nothing is worse than days of warm front drizzle and high snow levels right now.  

[Blizzard777]

00Z ECMWF at 240 hours... pretty sure none of us can find "potential" here.    We have been spared the day 10 curse tonight.   

 

Isn’t this good news! Does this not mean the pattern will now be and ice box since the opposite will happen?

Potential I seek

Jim

[TT-SEA]

Isn’t this good news! Does this not mean the pattern will now be and ice box since the opposite will happen?

Potential I seek

Jim

 

Everything has been trending warmer in the models for several weeks now... unlikely that the complete opposite happens.    Maybe it will end up warmer?   <_>

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

This west coast ridge which has been dominant since 2013 has been pretty amazing. Tim will talk about the anomalous rainfall, and that is true. About Eugene north has been wet, but that is only part of the story. Much of that rain, as in the rain we will see tomorrow is heavy rain with warm fronts as that ridge re-asserts itself. Thus California gets nothing and here in the PNW we get mild temps and low snow pack.

Washington, Oregon, and Idaho had above normal snowpacks the previous two winters measured on March 31 of 2017 and 2016.  Washington as of now is above normal, Idaho about normal, though of course Oregon is not doing well.  So I don't agree that it has been that bad the last few years.  In 2015 of course we had the terrible year with the warm blob, but since then things have picked up, even though we had the big El Nino two winters ago.  

[tomas]

                          
          

 

 

 

Climate models indicate that weak La Niña conditions are likely to persist into the first quarter of 2018. A return to ENSO-neutral conditions before early 2018 is less likely, while the emergence of El Niño before the second quarter of 2018 appears very remote.

[tomas]

  
  
          
 

[Phil]

It wouldn’t shock me if we enter “neutral” conditions as soon as M/A/M. With two downwelling OKWs now present, we’ll probably see another niño “head fake”, but the QBO should put the breaks on any attempt at a real niño, similar to what happened in 2012.

 

I think ENSO neutral is a safe bet for most of 2018 and the winter of 2018/19, at this point in time. FWIW, I still like 2019/20 for the next El Niño, followed by a multi-year period of moderate to strong La Niñas in the early 2020s, as would favored by the solar/IPWP cycle and other longer period equator/pole harmonics.

[Front Ranger]

EPS now showing signs that ridge will fade away in 2 weeks and zonal flow will return...

 

Day 10:

 

 

Day 15:

 

Offshore flow!

[Front Ranger]

Last year was our wettest year ever recorded but it was all warm tropical systems. We received 160" of snow which was only 10" above average. We have seen very few cold fronts since Jan 2013. There has been a dramatic climate shift since that period up here. I wouldn't be surprised if we are averaging + 5F to +10F above our normal highs and lows since that period.

 

It's not the "new norm", though. Don't fall for that fallacy.

[Phil]

It wouldn’t shock me if we enter “neutral” conditions as soon as M/A/M. With two downwelling OKWs now present, we’ll probably see another niño “head fake”, but the QBO should put the breaks on any attempt at a real niño, similar to what happened in 2012.

 

I think ENSO neutral is a safe bet for most of 2018 and the winter of 2018/19, at this point in time. FWIW, I still like 2019/20 for the next El Niño, followed by a multi-year period of moderate to strong La Niñas in the early 2020s, as would favored by the solar/IPWP cycle and other longer period equator/pole harmonics.

What will be important, however, is the length of the upcoming solar minimum, and low long it takes to get there. If it’s a prolonged minimum, there’s a slight chance that we could see a two year El Niño (2019/20 and 2020/21) before the multi-year La Niña afterwards, but that looks less likely right now IMO.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Meanwhile in southern hemisphere version of Great NW

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/30/new-zealand-heatwave-health-alerts-scramble-fans

 

They are in similar situation

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Meanwhile in southern hemisphere version of Great NW

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/30/new-zealand-heatwave-health-alerts-scramble-fans

 

They are in similar situation

Oh I fully expect an inferno from July-Sept here. Feels like it's the norm anymore.

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z EPS blended 5-day 850mb temp mean for days 10-15 shows that we might sharing our warmth...

 

[Phil]

Big time WPAC forcing. Unusual to get strong Phase 6/7 MJOs during La Niña.

 

[Phil]

Notice how the number of dots has gradually increased over the last several decades. The WPAC forcing has become more common.

 

The year of 2018 has just started, which is why there are fewer dots so far.

[Phil]

FWIW, the years that feature these big jumps in the intensity of WPAC forcing (vs the previous year) tend to precede Niños. See 1997, 2015, 1994, etc on the above image.

 

However, none of those years were in the process of descending into -QBO, which works against El Niño development. The two exceptions are 2001 and 2011..and both avoided El Niño thanks to the -QBO..though they’re both solar maximum years, which blurs the picture.

 

Unusual stuff right now, regardless.

[Olyman]

Maybe a dumb question, but why won't phase 7 of the mjo be cold for us? Especially with the strength of it.

[tomas]

FWIW, the years that feature these big jumps in the intensity of WPAC forcing (vs the previous year) tend to precede Niños. See 1997, 2015, 1994, etc on the above image.

 

However, none of those years were in the process of descending into -QBO, which works against El Niño development. The two exceptions are 2001 and 2011..and both avoided El Niño thanks to the -QBO..though they’re both solar maximum years, which blurs the picture.

 

Unusual stuff right now, regardless.                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

                                                                                     

 

 

 

 

                                                                                        

 

This graph shows the number of sunspots counted each year for several decades. Notice how the sunspot count rises and falls in an 11-year cycle.

[Geos]

That is really something.

 

[DareDuck]

What will be important, however, is the length of the upcoming solar minimum, and low long it takes to get there. If it’s a prolonged minimum, there’s a slight chance that we could see a two year El Niño (2019/20 and 2020/21) before the multi-year La Niña afterwards, but that looks less likely right now IMO.

By 2020 we’ll be hearing about multi year La Nina’s in the mid 2020s.

[Deweydog]

Pretty clear it's gonna take a Nina to finally shake things up.

[Phil]

By 2020 we’ll be hearing about multi year La Nina’s in the mid 2020s.

No, you won’t. I’ve had this prediction for awhile. Expect another Niño “head fake” this spring before a retraction to ENSO neutral for winter 2018/19, followed by the climatological solar min/El Niño response in 2019/20, then a very amplified multiyear La Niña spanning the early 2020s. At least one winter in the early 2020s will feature a strong La Niña.

 

The climate system has been undergoing a significant transition since 2012/13. Except for 2015/16, the ENSO has been essentially dormant since then. Recent years with largely dormant ENSO include 2012/13, 2013/14, 2014/15, and 2016/17. We can probably add 2018/19, as well. Quite the stretch.

 

The El Niño of 2019/20 wil mark the return of a more amplified ENSO phase, IMO.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It feels like winter is over and it probable is as far as anything decent. 

[Phil]

If you’ve read the literature on tropical climate, you know that “slowing down = speeding up”.

 

In other words, when we get these multi-year stretches with stagnant tropical forcing/dormant ENSO, we observe large scale reorganization(s) of the climate during or after their termination.

 

A dormant ENSO represents a “change in direction” for the system, like when you hit the breaks before making a turn in a vehicle. Usually, the more prolonged the dormant stretch, the more significant the upcoming regime change.