January Weather In the PNW

[umadbro]

18z

[Deweydog]

I will need to see the ensembles, Euro, GEM and EPS all break down before fully giving up hope. Just as you will continue to keep the candle lit for another schweaty schummer.

Potential exists in the 10+ day range. No model has shown an optimal set up thus far however.

 

Nice thing about summer is we're never more than a few clicks away from some super sexy 65+ degree lowz.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Good time to go to Hawaii.  

[Jesse]

Potential exists in the 10+ day range. No model has shown an optimal set up thus far however.

 

Nice thing about summer is we're never more than a few clicks away from some super sexy 65+ degree lowz.

Those marine flavored coastal summers must have scarred you as a child.

[Deweydog]

Those marine flavored coastal summers must have scarred you as a child.

Variety BAD!!!

[BLI snowman]

Good time to go to Hawaii.

 

Kona low?

[Jesse]

Variety BAD!!!

Just a difference of opinion.

[TT-SEA]

Good time to go to Hawaii.

 

I am hoping we cycle through a nice pattern (either warm and dry or cold and snowy) in the next 3 weeks and then get back to zonal flow and daily rain and mountain snow starting in the middle of February.       

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z is absolute trash in the LR.

 

I think the GFS is leading the way on this one. 

[Jesse]

I think the GFS is leading the way on this one.

I think ur leading the way

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think ur leading the way

 

It has been remarkably consistent while the GEM and EURO are flip flopping worse than Cryin' Chuck Schumer on the government shutdown.

[Deweydog]

Just a difference of opinion.

Not really. I bet you want a big Arctic Blast with Snow and Frontal Snowsqualls too.

[TT-SEA]

It has been remarkably consistent while the GEM and EURO are flip flopping worse than Cryin' Chuck Schumer on the government shutdown.

 

EPS has been rock solid.   Minor adjustments both ways... but the overall pattern shown has not wavered for days.  

[Deweydog]

EPS has been rock solid. Minor adjustments both ways... but the overall pattern shown has not wavered for days.

Big warm ridge.

[BLI snowman]

It has been remarkably consistent while the GEM and EURO are flip flopping worse than Cryin' Chuck Schumer on the government shutdown.

 

GEFS doesn't really agree. Decent retrogression signal.

 

OP is an embarrassment to our nation.

[TT-SEA]

Big warm ridge.

 

We are on the dividing line.   But the overall pattern shown on EPS has been extremely consistent since late last week.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some ensemble hope.

[van city]

We are on the dividing line.   But the overall pattern shown on EPS has been extremely consistent since late last week.

 

[Jesse]

It has been remarkably consistent while the GEM and EURO are flip flopping worse than Cryin' Chuck Schumer on the government shutdown.

Despaircasting isn’t real forecasting.

[Jesse]

Not really. I bet you want a big Arctic Blast with Snow and Frontal Snowsqualls too.

Heavy Snow. You were so close to 3/3.

[Phil]

GEFS doesn't really agree. Decent retrogression signal.

 

OP is an embarrassment to our nation.

Edit: A few decent members, but still somewhat underwhelming..

 

[Jesse]

Eh..days 11-15 are less than inspiring.

 

Has anyone ever noticed that the only time Phil is bullish about cold or snow for us is when there is absolutely nothing in sight and we are relying solely on his word?

 

Whenever there is anything interesting even being hinted at by the models he is either quiet or takes on this role.

[HighlandExperience]

Has anyone ever noticed that the only time Phil is bullish about cold or snow for us is when there is absolutely nothing in sight and we are relying solely on his word?

 

Whenever there is anything interesting even being hinted at by the models he is either quiet or takes on this role.

I’m sure Phil is rooting against us

[liquidsnow]

Get your forks!

[Phil]

Has anyone ever noticed that the only time Phil is bullish about cold or snow for us is when there is absolutely nothing in sight and we are relying solely on his word?

 

Whenever there is anything interesting even being hinted at by the models he is either quiet or takes on this role.

Aaaaaand here we go again. I was very bullish back in mid-December when there were some great model

runs showing up for the period around New Years.

 

The conspiracy theory stuff isn’t necessary.

[BLI snowman]

Edit: A few decent members, but still somewhat underwhelming..

 

 

 

Yeah... that's a four day mean.

 

Talking about the Day 10-14 day period right now anyways.

 

This

 

 

Is quite a bit more promising than this

 

[MossMan]

Big warm ridge.

BWR to go along with some BSF!!

[Phil]

I’m sure Phil is rooting against us

I just don’t like this pattern as much.

 

Jesse is making me want to root for a torch, though.

[Deweydog]

Heavy Snow. You were so close to 3/3.

3/4. He started out as Snow.

[Phil]

Yeah... that's a four day mean.

 

Talking about the Day 10-14 day period right now anyways.

 

This

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_47.png

 

Is quite a bit more promising than this

 

poop18z.png

Definitely, but that doesn’t make it a retrogression signal.

 

If you animate the thermals for that timeframe, there’s not much of a retrogression there. That could change on future runs, though. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=nhem&pkg=T850a&runtime=2018012418&fh=120

[Deweydog]

Has anyone ever noticed that the only time Phil is bullish about cold or snow for us is when there is absolutely nothing in sight and we are relying solely on his word?

 

Whenever there is anything interesting even being hinted at by the models he is either quiet or takes on this role.

There were quite a few promising runs out in window licker range back when the three week double penetration was still on the table.

[TT-SEA]

file.png

Right on the dividing line.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

There were quite a few promising runs out in window licker range back when the three week double penetration was still on the table.

Me and Lindsey made some of those films occasionally. The table was indeed used pretty often.

[BLI snowman]

Definitely, but that doesn’t make it a retrogression signal.

 

If you animate the thermals for that timeframe, there’s not much of a retrogression there. That could change on future runs, though. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=nhem&pkg=T850a&runtime=2018012418&fh=120

 

I called it a decent retrogression signal. 

 

This

 

 

to this

 

 

Is a decent signal for that range, especially in lieu of the all-time bad OP.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I called it a decent retrogression signal.

 

This

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_35.png

 

to this

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_47.png

 

Is a decent signal for that range, especially in lieu of the all-time bad OP.

Anyone who can’t see that is ignorant or trolling.

[Guest El nina]

Our snowfall totals for our first real storm of the season went from 9-15" two days ago for South Lake Tahoe down to 3-6". Then it looks like no more storms and record heat until late Feb. I imagine most ski resorts will close before March at this rate. I am currently at 4.5" of snow with normal being 100" through January.

That's horrible, need to buy some water?

[van city]

Anyone who can’t see that is ignorant or trolling.

Phil

[Guest El nina]

I am no expert on weather and I'm not trying to target anyone here; but why is it being ignored that the 10-14 day range has been good all winter? Once it gets within day 8 or 9 it falls apart just like the trough next week. Is it really any different this time?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I am no expert on weather and I'm not trying to target anyone here; but why is it being ignored that the 10-14 day range has been good all winter? Once it gets within day 8 or 9 it falls apart just like the trough next week. Is it really any different this time?

We have all been aware of this. I agree, it's silly to get our hopes up.

[Jesse]

There were quite a few promising runs out in window licker range back when the three week double penetration was still on the table.

Yeah, but I recall that stuff being downplayed in favor of the as yet unmodeled early January promised land.