1/10 - 1/11 Possible Severe Frontal Passage with intense snow showers

[Madtown]

Weaker and southeast...by tomorrow it will be an open wave on its way to a frontal passage. Been the theme for this year and last. Hope it comes together and smokes someone, but hard to get excited.

[Minny_Weather]

SLP is 992 at the end of the run and in OK. Come to Daddy.

[Tom]

Hey guys, back in the saddle...I caught some sort of stomach bug last night and knocked me out.  Glad to see the storm still showing up and I'm encouraged to see the 00z EPS shift the 2" snow mean SE across MN and into NE (just to the west of OMA) and it has expanded.  It's even seeing the secondary wave ride up towards the Lower Lakes on the 13th-14th...this may end up being a separate thread if trends continue.

[Minny_Weather]

Hey guys, back in the saddle...I caught some sort of stomach bug last night and knocked me out. Glad to see the storm still showing up and I'm encouraged to see the 00z EPS shift the 2" snow mean SE across MN and into NE (just to the west of OMA) and it has expanded. It's even seeing the secondary wave ride up towards the Lower Lakes on the 13th-14th...this may end up being a separate thread if trends continue.

Hope you're doing better Tom!

[Tom]

Hope you're doing better Tom!

Thank man, I hate getting sick...hope this storm turns out to be a "share the wealth" for the western & northern portion of the sub forum.  It's def trending in the right direction.

[Money]

Don’t see too many changes through hr 72 compared to 6z.

[Money]

Hair north and 2 mb stronger by hr 90 but pretty consistent overall

[Tom]

Nice defo band near OMA on the 12z GFS...3-5" in 3 hrs...wow, nice hit for most of NE...

[Minny_Weather]

This is awesome. Now we just need it to STAY for 4 days...

[Snowlover76]

What's the time frame for this?

 

I have a flight Friday morning from Omaha

[Money]

Gem still doesn’t have much of a storm

[Tom]

Gem still doesn’t have much of a storm

It somewhat has the idea of the storm...

 

[Snowlover76]

The GEM is on crack

[Money]

It somewhat has the idea of the storm...

 

Eh it started out at 988 MB and then pretty much disappeared 24 hrs later. Hard to see that happening

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Cmc getting its act together but its way west

[Iowawx]

I am still hoping for a 75-100 mile shift southeast which seems possible, but will take anything from this storm system.

[Minny_Weather]

What's the time frame for this?

 

I have a flight Friday morning from Omaha

You're fine. There's gonna be a clipper system Friday but that should be an incher.

[Minny_Weather]

GEM is cuckoo for cocoa puffs. It has shown hilariously unrealistic solutions so many times for this storm, it's almost as if it's in a completely different world. I've written it off completely for this system. What it shows is just meteorologically wrong.

[Minny_Weather]

I will say I do hope the system is slower than GFS is showing. I'm afraid GFS is a bit fast with the change over from rain to snow.

[CentralNebWeather]

My area of Central Nebraska looks good.  Still nervous about what might happen, however.  

[Money]

Ukie still way NW and takes the low through W WI

[snowstorm83]

FWIW, the 12z GEFS has taken a nice jog southeast from the 00z mean. 06z was also similar but I tend to pay less attention to 06z.

[Minny_Weather]

Many GEFS members are still being douchecopters about amounts/ptypes here. They'll come around. We're getting around to the point where ensembles have less say in things anyway.

[Tom]

Many GEFS members are still being douchecopters about amounts/ptypes here. They'll come around. We're getting around to the point where ensembles have less say in things anyway.

3" snow mean cutting right through OMA on the 12z GEFS and a notable shift SE compared to 00z...looking better for ya'll...S & C MN still looks good as well...DSM riding the 2" mean...

[centralweather44]

snow 7.png

My area of Central Nebraska looks good. Still nervous about what might happen, however.

I would have to agree 100%. I just have a bad feeling this thing is going to shift a day or two before and end up with nothing. Just my gut though.

[Minny_Weather]

Not much change between 00z and 12z Euro @54. A hair stronger but that's it so far.

[Minny_Weather]

This is gonna be my Euro update post. I'll edit it as the run comes in more.

 

Yeah so far there are no marked differences between Euro runs @ 78.

 

@ 84, the SLP is literally in the exact same spot at 00z. A bit North of where NAM put it. It's weird when NAM is the farthest south solution.

 

It's less good with the precip rates, but way wider with the range, with snow stretching from Oklahoma to Newfoundland.

 

Looks like heaviest rates will come to whoever gets under the thin bands. Reasonably, 3-6" ranges across Nebraska. Not too exciting, but with the clipper on Friday I'll take it.

 

Twin Cities with around 6", Duluth around 8", heaviest band in Iowa is from a Pacific Junction-Atlantic-Mankato line, at about 6". East of there there is a sharp cutoff.

[Money]

1002 L in central OK at 96

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Man 6 inches would be amazing. Cant remember the last time we have seen that much here

[Money]

The secondary low goes from 1001 in MS to 985 over Detroit. Guessing MI does well with this?

[Minny_Weather]

Ratios will be tricky. I'm leaning more towards 10:1, maybe 15:1 with this storm as winds will be powerful. Anyone who gets snow could see blizzard conditions.

[gosaints]

The secondary low goes from 1001 in MS to 985 over Detroit. Guessing MI does well with this?

I think ur best chance is a poo poo first wave...

 

When is the last time a cutter has come out with all energy in one piece???

[hlcater]

This euro run is looking like an ORD/MI crush job with that secondary low dropping to 985 over Toledo and a 1050 high over the Dakotas. Meanwhile, E IA is stuck right in between the first and secondary wave with absolutely nothing.

[Money]

I think ur best chance is a poo poo first wave...

Pretty much something that will develop the secondary wave faster and farther west. There were some good looking gfs ensembles for it yesterday.

[Money]

Lnk how does that secondary low do for snowfall in the area?

[Minny_Weather]

Lnk how does that secondary low do for snowfall in the area?

Run of the mill clipper. Maybe an inch to 1.5" possible for anyone who gets under it.

[Hawkeye]

[Money]

Tom/jaster crush job

[hlcater]

LOL, if that run verified I'd quit winter.

[gosaints]

Depending on what the first wave does the goalposts are wide for the second one...