1/12 - 1/13 GL's/OV Potential Major Winter Storm

[Niko]

 

Interesting, indeed! Correct me if I am wrong, but it seems a little further NW than yesterday.

[jaster220]

 

Interesting, indeed! Correct me if I am wrong, but it seems a little further NW than yesterday.

 

It is, and it isn't. Or might not be. Aka, that could be deceiving a bit. The stuff on the NW side of the main swath may be showing as SN when in reality it'll be ZR or IP, not snow. Models don't always do the best job in sorting those out in a transitional scenario like this. Some could be lost to still warm ground as well. So, while this and the 12z NAM looked like winning, I'm still not counting on much until I see it falling. GFS shows snow, GEM has ice at 7 am Friday for example. I'm going to need the CF to slow down and give the weak-a$$ SLP time to pump some qpf up this way in order to get a plow-worthy accumulation. You're in a better spot to score tbh. Hopefully at least one of us salvage this teaser    

[jaster220]

12z 3km NAM for compare..

 

 

 

[Niko]

12z 3km NAM for compare..

 

20180111 12z 48hr NAM Snowfall.png

Sweet! I think the models are having a betta handle of this today, now that the disturbance is onshore.

[Niko]

It is, and it isn't. Or might not be. Aka, that could be deceiving a bit. The stuff on the NW side of the main swath may be showing as SN when in reality it'll be ZR or IP, not snow. Models don't always do the best job in sorting those out in a transitional scenario like this. Some could be lost to still warm ground as well. So, while this and the 12z NAM looked like winning, I'm still not counting on much until I see it falling. GFS shows snow, GEM has ice at 7 am Friday for example. I'm going to need the CF to slow down and give the weak-a$$ SLP time to pump some qpf up this way in order to get a plow-worthy accumulation. You're in a better spot to score tbh. Hopefully at least one of us salvage this teaser    

I agree.

 

You should bold well w LES this weekend.

[jaster220]

Sweet! I think the models are having a betta handle of this today, now that the disturbance is onshore.

 

Sheesh this is KRAZY nuts..like back from the dead Zombie Storm! 

 

NAM12k trending amped with warning snow streak now for mby..this is some wacked sh*t 

 

[Niko]

Sheesh this is KRAZY nuts..like back from the dead Zombie! 

 

NAM12k trending amped with warning snow streak now for mby..this is some wacked sh*t 

 

namconus_asnow_ncus_fh39_trend.gif

6"+ for YBY buddy.....

[Niko]

I wanna say that each run on the models is a mb stronger and a few miles further NW.

[jaster220]

I wanna say that each run on the models is a mb stronger and a few miles further NW.

 

Yeah, this ain't ovva! One of those down-to-the-wire systems that we've not had in some time. I'm no MET so this is over my head, but I've read enough AFD's to recognize that there's some room for more changes/positive results from these IWX words..

 

Adding to concerns, the 12Z NAM develops a bullseye of QPF over

our east-central CWA in response to the enhanced forcing in the

right entrance region of a strengthening 300MB Jet between 9-15Z,

which stretches over northern Lower Michigan/Ontario/Quebec. The

enhanced upper level divergence works to tilt our trough

negatively and contract (strengthen) the frontal zone across our

area.

Looking at a cross section through the frontal zone, we see

a brief period of decent instability/CSI. If it occurs, this will

favor the development of heavier bands of snow, which supports the

idea of the NAM`s increase in QPF (including the FWA area).

Overall, however the time the ingredients come together is pretty

short-lived, and don`t expect too much in the way of additional

ice accumulations beyond those forecasted at this point.

Furthermore, thinking it will largely be more snow/sleet than any

freezing rain at the times of greatest instability. In the end,

put 2-3" snow in the forecast for the eastern half of the advisory

given the potential.

[Niko]

Yeah, this ain't ovva! One of those down-to-the-wire systems that we've not had in some time. I'm no MET so this is over my head, but I've read enough AFD's to recognize that there's some room for more changes/positive results from these IWX words..

You betta believe it brotha!

 

Very interesting paragraph.

[indianajohn]

Still holding out hope it jogs a few miles north.....would love to get in the action!!

[jaster220]

Verbatim, 18z NAM wants to drop 7+ on Marshall. We'll see if it has a clue or not, lol

 

 

Btw, translates to about 4.5" depth, which prolly allows for mixing issues, etc..

[jaster220]

Still holding out hope it jogs a few miles north.....would love to get in the action!!

 

Toss a dart..just as likely to be where the weenie band sets up, just as we've seen with part-1 today..good luck. 

[jaster220]

     Canadien short-ranger ftw

 

Just let me see those rates once this winter..pls & thx

 

 

 

[jaster220]

Even GFS trend wants to deliver 3.5" so trend's been a friend all of a sudden.

 

[Niko]

     Canadien short-ranger ftw

 

Just let me see those rates once this winter..pls & thx

 

20180111 12z 24hr HRDPS precip.png

WOW...looking good there Jaster. Hopefully, that darker blue slides my way. That has to be extrememly heavy snow.

[Niko]

Under a WWA for 2-4inches or more.

[Tom]

RPM model trying to paint a couple inches of LES in E Cook county Friday night and more so across NW IN...it'll be interesting watching this unfold and to see if a lake plume does in fact develop.  

[Tom]

Lake/Porter county in IN look like they are in a good spot to score a few inches from LES.  RPM model had the band meandering over that same area for a long time Sat morning.  Here is LOT's take:

 

 

 

This will
likely produce some light accumulating snow, especially near the
IL/IN state line where high-res guidance depict a longer residence
time for the band into tonight. A few inches of snow are likely
for those areas, depending on details of eventual evolution of the
LES band. Band is expected to drift east across Lake and Porter
Counties Saturday, eventually moving largely east of the cwa by
evening as low level flow weakens and backs more westerly.

[Tom]

What a dramatic flip in temps from last night.  Just took out the garbage and its friggin' cold!  Actually, I saw some LES flurries falling from the sky.  The ground is completely frozen solid.  Looking at the radar, Lake/DuPage/Cook county are getting some flurry/light snow action....albeit, very light, this is something we have to monitor as we get into the evening hours.

[Tabitha]

There are a few snow showers in the area on radar; though it is dry here at 6:30 AM MDT.

 

Ground is bare here; maybe you could say there is a trace on the ground.

 

Even Lead; elevation of about 5200' and with a mean annual average of about 15 feet (180 inches), is reporting just one inch on the ground and just one inch for January 2018.

 

Conditions may become more favorable for snow here over the next few days as the wind may veer towards the east and a bit of an upslope may develop. 

 

We'll see...

 

Snowfall for the season here is at 10.7"; central South Dakota has done even more poorly...as Aberdeen & Pierre are in the 4 to 5 inch range for the entire 2017-18 winter.  The NWS WFO in Rapid City is at 8.6".

[Niko]

Moderate snow here currently and windy conditions. Temp @ 29F and dropping!!! My accumulations have been upped to 3-5", locally more in spots under heavy banding.

[Minny_Weather]

Flash Flood Warning on top of a WSW in Northern PA. This same area is about to receive up to 10" of snow. The flash freezing situation up there should be fun.

[snowstorm83]

My parents in Mississippi just changed over to heavy snow. This is on top of 1/2-1" of sleet. Wild morning down there, everything is shut down. 

[Tom]

RPM...you get the idea on what to expect in terms of LES...

 

[Tom]

LES band is developing over Cook and I will confirm light snow is falling here. Darker clouds just to my east and it looks like it may be drifting a touch west.

[jaster220]

     Canadien short-ranger ftw

 

Just let me see those rates once this winter..pls & thx

 

20180111 12z 24hr HRDPS precip.png

 

WOW...looking good there Jaster. Hopefully, that darker blue slides my way. That has to be extrememly heavy snow.

 

 

And per my airport ASOS, it was the heaviest ever since I've been paying attention to it. This is the first time I've ever seen it register +SN which means it was actually more like ++SN 

 

Sadly, I'd left town to skate my way to the office, but it was bliz conditions around BC for the first 20 or so miles. Cars even on surface streets crawling at 25 mph due to the layer of ZR under the snow. WWA extended to 7 pm prolly shoulda been upgraded. GRR's Afd even said as much, yet they don't. What a bunch of chumps. Yet, they'll upgrade for 4" of fluff effect snow off the lake. 

[Tabitha]

There are a few snow showers in the area on radar; though it is dry here at 6:30 AM MDT.

 

Ground is bare here; maybe you could say there is a trace on the ground.

 

Even Lead; elevation of about 5200' and with a mean annual average of about 15 feet (180 inches), is reporting just one inch on the ground and just one inch for January 2018.

 

Conditions may become more favorable for snow here over the next few days as the wind may veer towards the east and a bit of an upslope may develop. 

 

We'll see...

 

Snowfall for the season here is at 10.7"; central South Dakota has done even more poorly...as Aberdeen & Pierre are in the 4 to 5 inch range for the entire 2017-18 winter.  The NWS WFO in Rapid City is at 8.6".

 

We had about 1/10 of an inch of snow in snow showers.  Actually it was closer to 5/100ths of an inch; but I figured "what the heck" and decided to round upwards...

 

The sun is peeking though now; actually, the sun shone through dimly the whole time; and none of this even showed up on the radar; which would lead me to believe that the cloud deck was *very* thin and made up of just some low level clouds.

 

The cold and the ratios are never problems here.  If precipitation falls from November through March; it will almost certainly be snow.  Likewise; the ratios are also very good.  I have seen many reports nearby of up to a 1/2 inch of snow based on a trace of liquid equivalent.

 

The bad news is that it is more arid than the Gobi Desert; and that has proven to be quite the sticking point.

 

I suppose I write to sort of punctuate the bizarre (and not in a good way!) nature of the climate here; as it a good deal removed from what I was anticipating.

 

I'm quite fond of the area; but my lease expires in the summertime; and if the weather does not suit my changeable moods; I might consider moving on at that point in time; as I'm not one to suffer dissatisfactory outcomes for extended spells. 

 

I'm going where the sun keeps shining

Through the pouring rain

Going where the weather suits my clothes

Banking off of the northeast winds

Sailing on a summer breeze

And skipping over the ocean like a stone

___Nilsson

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AzEY6ZqkuE

 

Eventually the law of averages should even things out around here...I hope.

[NEJeremy]

We had about 1/10 of an inch of snow in snow showers.  Actually it was closer to 5/100ths of an inch; but I figured "what the heck" and decided to round upwards...

 

The sun is peeking though now; actually, the sun shone through dimly the whole time; and none of this even showed up on the radar; which would lead me to believe that the cloud deck was *very* thin and made up of just some low level clouds.

 

The cold and the ratios are never problems here.  If precipitation falls from November through March; it will almost certainly be snow.  Likewise; the ratios are also very good.  I have seen many reports nearby of up to a 1/2 inch of snow based on a trace of liquid equivalent.

 

The bad news is that it is more arid than the Gobi Desert; and that has proven to be quite the sticking point.

 

Eventually the law of averages should even things out around here...I hope.

I just wanted to say I always like hearing your reports from Lead. Lead can get some CRAZY amounts of snow! My grandma lives in Spearfish and my grandpa before he retired and has passed away, used to help run Homestake Mine there in Lead. He even helped run a location in Peru(the country  ). I still LOVE going out to the Hills and have lots of wonderful childhood memories from there. Very beautiful country! 

[Tabitha]

I just wanted to say I always like hearing your reports from Lead. Lead can get some CRAZY amounts of snow! My grandma lives in Spearfish and my grandpa before he retired and has passed away, used to help run Homestake Mine there in Lead. He even helped run a location in Peru(the country  ). I still LOVE going out to the Hills and have lots of wonderful childhood memories from there. Very beautiful country! 

 

Actually I don't live in Lead proper (and I'm sure I never said I did...the considerably lower altitude under Location is a dead giveway); I'm sort of down the spine of the Hills just a bit...the numbers I gave are from the cooperative page...and here is the link to it:

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/COOP/cat.phtml?station=LEAS2&network=SD_COOP

 

There are big differences in average annual snowfall around here (as you probably know); so much so that by driving 25 miles and going up 1500 feet, you can increase your annual average three fold.

 

The computer models do not seem to do terribly well here; as they do not handle the mountains well (IMO) and significant errors are common; even within 6 hours.

 

It is very beautiful here; and I think it will turn around for the better eventually...

 

I am glad that you like the reports from out here.

[Niko]

20180112 KRMY morning +SN.PNG

 

And per my airport ASOS, it was the heaviest ever since I've been paying attention to it. This is the first time I've ever seen it register +SN which means it was actually more like ++SN 

 

Sadly, I'd left town to skate my way to the office, but it was bliz conditions around BC for the first 20 or so miles. Cars even on surface streets crawling at 25 mph due to the layer of ZR under the snow. WWA extended to 7 pm prolly shoulda been upgraded. GRR's Afd even said as much, yet they don't. What a bunch of chumps. Yet, they'll upgrade for 4" of fluff effect snow off the lake. 

Go figure, right?!

 

So, how much ya have so far in the snow dept?

[Tom]

That lake band is parked right over my house. I’m in the city and its been snowing with varying intensity but not accumulating much. Wonder if this band intensifies later tonight.

[jaster220]

Go figure, right?!

 

So, how much ya have so far in the snow dept?

 

Idk tbh? ASOS reported SN to ++SN with reasonably low vis for about 5 hrs so GRR's concern about a last minute trend up to 3-6 may have verified. If I was more saavy at searching local reports from automated and spotter peeps, I'd likely be able to paint a reasonable picture even from this distance. But I'll see later or when GRR posts something on it. How 'bout yby?

[Niko]

Idk tbh? ASOS reported SN to ++SN with reasonably low vis for about 5 hrs so GRR's concern about a last minute trend up to 3-6 may have verified. If I was more saavy at searching local reports from automated and spotter peeps, I'd likely be able to paint a reasonable picture even from this distance. But I'll see later or when GRR posts something on it. How 'bout yby?

They are saying around 2.3" atm. Idk, maybe it will creep up higher later on. Definitely got my whitecover back thank goodness. W this arctic air arriving, woulda been dull w bare ground. Ugh!

[Tom]

Wow, this lake effect is legit! Suddenly, the lake band just intensified outta nowhere! It looks beautiful out here in the city with the winds howling and blowing the snow all over the place. At times, there are mini “white” ground tornados whipped up in between the buildings. #Awesomeness

 

The funny things is, none of the models picked up on this today except for maybe the WRF. Awesome surprise!

[Tom]

@ Indianajohn, you getting in on that band???  Not much accumulation over here except for some spots getting a coating.  It was fun seeing some embedded heavier snow showers while I was down in the city today.  The video you see on TV doesn't do it justice when your out in the elements.  Soldier Field clocked a 51mph wind gust and I was literally along the lakefront for most of the day.  It was certainly a howling wind off the lake.  Too bad we didn't have better inversion hieghts or this set up would have pounded lakeside counties.  I'm surprised how persistent these snow showers have been since the afternoon as they haven't budged at all.

[indianajohn]

Started hear around 7:30 or so.... love LES snow!!!

@ Indianajohn, you getting in on that band??? Not much accumulation over here except for some spots getting a coating. It was fun seeing some embedded heavier snow showers while I was down in the city today. The video you see on TV doesn't do it justice when your out in the elements. Soldier Field clocked a 51mph wind gust and I was literally along the lakefront for most of the day. It was certainly a howling wind off the lake. Too bad we didn't have better inversion hieghts or this set up would have pounded lakeside counties. I'm surprised how persistent these snow showers have been since the afternoon as they haven't budged at all.

[jaster220]

Wow, this lake effect is legit! Suddenly, the lake band just intensified outta nowhere! It looks beautiful out here in the city with the winds howling and blowing the snow all over the place. At times, there are mini “white” ground tornados whipped up in between the buildings. #Awesomeness

The funny things is, none of the models picked up on this today except for maybe the WRF. Awesome surprise!

Sounds fun! Glad you got that. In Marshall it was a noice little weenie band storm with 3.5" in about 5 hrs. Winds, +SN, and moist snow. All things I am fond of. The temp coaster was wild enough, but I don't ever remember having 60 degs one evening and a storm raging by morning. Not saying it never happens, just can't remember when I ever experienced it? The winds are still brutal. At the Lakeshore this morning, it was the strongest since Dec '12 blizzard in Wisconsin. It was actually difficult to walk from the parking lot across the street..such a weird system..another one on tap too.

[jaster220]

And ofc, no snowfall map from GRR since their backyard was shafted. Typically lame!

 

K, better late than never..today they posted one: