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1/12 - 1/13 GL's/OV Potential Major Winter Storm


Tom

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If I were you I wouldn't bail unless the Euro stays east for a couple more cycles.

 

I appreciate your opinion and optimism. A NW trend within the d3-d1 would be nice if only I didn't have that prior intuition about those IN peach pits, lol

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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MKX AFD for Friday night and Saturday

 

"...a persistent northeast flow sets up, setting the stage for a lake snow event over

southeast Wisconsin. GFS forecast soundings show the initial inversion rising, as the

low levels moisten. Also mid levels also moisten with the mainupper trough overhead.

AS a result, expect the lake snow to provide several inches of snow. Will have to keep

an eye on this for any eventual advisories. Temperatures will remain very cold."

 

This seems like a new and interesting development.

Winds are also forecast to be very strong at 20-30mph from the NE during this time.

 

The plot thickens!

Hopefully they're right. I'm not expecting much though.

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fwiw, 21z SREF looked pretty amped. Likes 25% risk of 12+ for Marshall

 

srefUS_prec_snow12_084.gif

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Where did everyone go??? There are novice weather watchers learning from you guys! Been reading for years in SEMI! Thanks so much for all the conversation!

Neb peeps are focused on their storm, Tom said his internet is down, I'm lomping along with a lame Android tablet..

 

You in SEMI look to have the best shot as Michigan goes. Today's runs since the Euro were much less favorable back west of you. That may trend west again tho, lol, the way these models are behaving!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Not betting on anything yet. Way too soon to be a lock. Looks very good for my area now, but, changes can still happen. This storm has some real strong winds to content with. Whoever gets under these great bands, then, look-out. :ph34r:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NAM at this range may be suffering convective feedback issues. Then again, might just be taking today's trend to the extreme.

 

Need some of those 990's GEFS members to verify, lol

 

Looks like our last hope is last-minute amping of the SLP

 

These 2-pulse set-up (Plains 1st) never seem to work out for SMI. I can't remember one that did. Back in late 80's there was a Gulf Low, looked like it'd ride a front NNE and bury SEMI good. TWC was already talking snow emergency for Detroit, yada-yada-yada. Damned thing ended up hugging the EC and NH got buried instead. Different era, same ole story, lol

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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nam is further east this run.

 

precip doesn't even make it into semi

 

Yc2qTrr.png

Trajectories of swaths parallel each other - makes most sense when you really think about it..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hate to say it, but synoptically we live n die with Chicago more than not. Us getting shlammered and them nothing just goes against that grain!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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LES does not look impressive so onto the next possible fail which will be Sunday. I suspect this will get weaker as time goes on and most likely turn into a couple flakes by the time it gets here. Just not our winter and no reason and no signal to believe it will change

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LES does not look impressive so onto the next possible fail which will be Sunday. I suspect this will get weaker as time goes on and most likely turn into a couple flakes by the time it gets here. Just not our winter and no reason and no signal to believe it will change

I just saw the RPM model and it looked good for NE IL in terms of LES...I'm not buying into it though bc these events are always tough to forecast...

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Might be LOL worthy today, but as said by others, we've had virtually ZERO test-case examples of how the current model upgrades are handling something as potent and unique as this strong neg-tilted Gulf Low. Idk what to think, lol. Not sure what CPC was smoking Tues pm when they issued their outlook after EVERY model shifted well east all morning up to that point, but per their map mby is shown very close to the rare tri-fecta of conditions I drool over..

 

20180109_CPC_hazards_d3_7.PNG

 

Anyways, like most gov agencies, they prolly just go thru their daily motions and had this all drawn up in the morning and didn't bother revising it. Sure today's will be like "what storm potential over MI??" 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I just saw the RPM model and it looked good for NE IL in terms of LES...I'm not buying into it though bc these events are always tough to forecast...

 

Good luck over there with the LEffect! 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Thanks, but I think this will end up being some "mood" flakes which I have already seen plenty of times since my first "mood" LES wayyy back in November...

 

Weird how this winter has doubled-down on last winter's snooze-fest for ORD! I've seen that sometimes good winters come in pairs, but apparently the opposite can play out as well. I'm thankful for this past December going a better route than last year tho, what with the Christmas timed event - that's gonna really help the grade if we go the rest of the way not able to buy a S Stream warning snow. Not thrilled about the extended cold into Spring tbh, not with cold NW flow dominated outcome. If I had the means, I'd be planning and focusing on a late winter get-away to the Bahamas or something. Usually that's a great distraction when nature's being Grinchy with the pattern  :lol:  

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Weird how this winter has doubled-down on last winter's snooze-fest for ORD! I've seen that sometimes good winters come in pairs, but apparently the opposite can play out as well. I'm thankful for this past December going a better route than last year tho, what with the Christmas timed event - that's gonna really help the grade if we go the rest of the way not able to buy a S Stream warning snow. Not thrilled about the extended cold into Spring tbh, not with cold NW flow dominated outcome. If I had the means, I'd be planning and focusing on a late winter get-away to the Bahamas or something. Usually that's a great distraction when nature's being Grinchy with the pattern :lol:

Believe me, I’m already thinking about warm weather thoughts...before that though, I’d like to see an impactful strong southern wave hit us by March.

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I assume we are throwing in the towel that this will shift back west?? LMAO

 

To the extent that mby over to your's and/or Tom's gets hit - a resounding YES. No way it comes back this far west. Niko can hold out hope tho, and I would if I was him.

 

EDIT: Biggest model Fart by any modern-era model I've been a victim of and the Euro of all the one's to do it  :rolleyes:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I just saw the RPM model and it looked good for NE IL in terms of LES...I'm not buying into it though bc these events are always tough to forecast...

I am liking the lake effect potential where I am. May have pretty good duration, starting as early as Friday afternoon before swinging west (maybe out of my area) but then coming back east and peaking on Saturday. Inversion heights aren't the greatest but despite that, I think several inches is on the table here/close by.

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Believe me, I’m already thinking about warm weather thoughts...before that though, I’d like to see an impactful strong southern wave hit us by March.

 

Forgive me if I have my doubts after seeing this potential trend the way it has. Perhaps in Nino fashion, we finally get one on the threshold of spring..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ Jaster

 

W the arctic blast coming this weekend, you stand a great chance of getting some Lake Effect for YBY.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I am liking the lake effect potential where I am. May have pretty good duration, starting as early as Friday afternoon before swinging west (maybe out of my area) but then coming back east and peaking on Saturday. Inversion heights aren't the greatest but despite that, I think several inches is on the table here/close by.

 

Well, good luck then for you Hoosier. I'm still reeling from Euro whiplash via 2 feet to a whiff in a matter of hours. I thought the days of that stuff was over..(insert arrow-thru-head icon which we don't have) 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ Jaster

 

W the arctic blast coming this weekend, you stand a great chance of getting some Lake Effect for YBY.

 

Hope not, I'd like to get my lawn decorations put away. They should be released from the glacier by then.. ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Per Accu-Weather:

 

Areas at greatest risk for receiving enough snow to shovel and plow after a period of ice will extend from northern Tennessee to southwestern Ontario.

The area includes much of Ohio and may reach the major cities of Cleveland, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Detroit and Indianapolis.

However, a slight westward or eastward shift in the track of the storm and the progression of the cold air may cause the heavy snow areas to shift correspondingly.

 

All eyes for any changes in the models in the upcoming days.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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LES does not look impressive so onto the next possible fail which will be Sunday. I suspect this will get weaker as time goes on and most likely turn into a couple flakes by the time it gets here. Just not our winter and no reason and no signal to believe it will change

What is really frustrating is that is the third winter bust in a row for snow

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What is really frustrating is that is the third winter bust in a row for snow

 

Yeah over your way. At least mby got that (1) Dec storm in Dec of '16 for a warned event. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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euro is weaker and further east. this is turning into a non event

 

Euro blew chunks for SMI - some of the biggest ever blown by any model if you ask me 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Going to be a slap in the face when the front hits (this is probably closer to reality with warm sector temps compared to the cooler models)

 

attachicon.gifRAPMW_sfc_temp_021.png

 

Shame that next to nothing will come from such a dramatic thermal boundary..oh what could've been in another era. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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WWA issued for a Flash Freeze....Yay...NOT!!!!  I haven't had the energy over the past couple days.  Anyhow, may make a run at a record high of 61F today!  Then, the bottom falls out and its looking like LES may be on the table here Friday night into Sat.  LOT had a good write up:

 

 

 

A long duration light to at times moderate lake effect snow
episode looks to unfold starting Friday afternoon and continuing
through Saturday afternoon before likely exiting mainly east of
the CWA Saturday evening.

 

 

 

For this forecast, leaned on the NAM/3km NAM Nest and GFS for
boundary layer winds and convergence depictions Friday evening
through Saturday. Models have shifted to more of a north-northeast
to north scenario, which favors Cook County and points south to
south- southwest pending band orientation, into northwest Indiana.
The snow will likely focus into above mentioned areas of
northeast Illinois and extreme northwest Indiana Friday evening
and overnight and then primarily northwest Indiana during the day
Saturday. Expect continued refinements into this overall thinking
on areas affected, with subtle changes in boundary layer winds and
convergence likely to produce changes on areas most impacted.
Given full fetch down the lake, the snow showers will be able to
spread farther inland than is typical, so do have high chance to
likely PoPs all the way down to portions of east central IL and
well south of the Kankakee River in Indiana.

Inversion heights will improve to 6000 to 7000 feet Friday night
and to 7000 to 8000 feet during Saturday, which is still less than
ideal. Compensating will be excellent boundary layer convergence
and good lift through the DGZ and the longer duration. It`s at
this point uncertain if a single band will develop or multi-band,
multi-cell setup. Directional shear through the DGZ will be low,
but there will be fairly strong winds through the layer.

Accumulations are likely with this lake effect episode. However,
limiting factors and questions on specific areas affected and
duration of effects, as is typical with lake effect, result in
lower confidence in preliminary forecast amounts. The preliminary
snowfall forecast favors accumulations of 1 to 3" from Chicago
southward to eastern Kankakee County and 2 to 4" in Lake and
Porter counties in Indiana, with 1 to 3" southward into Newton
and Jasper counties. Once again, expect changes and refinements to
this forecast as we get closer. The snow should shift focus mainly
east of Porter County by Saturday evening, but we`ll need to watch
for mesolow development that could slow eastward progress.

Strong northerly winds will be an issue throughout the lake effect
snow, particularly lakeside where lake effect convergence sets up,
with gusts up to 40 mph at times. This means that blowing snow of
the falling and already fallen snow could further reduce
visibility in areas that receive appreciable accumulations.
Something to keep in mind with respect to potential travel
impacts.
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WWA issued for a Flash Freeze....Yay...NOT!!!!  I haven't had the energy over the past couple days.  Anyhow, may make a run at a record high of 61F today!  Then, the bottom falls out and its looking like LES may be on the table here Friday night into Sat.  LOT had a good write up:

Unfortunately that lake band will probably not affect us farther west of the city but it might give you a little snow Tom.

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Unfortunately that lake band will probably not affect us farther west of the city but it might give you a little snow Tom.

Not betting on it, as we would need a better easterly component.  Would have been a better set up if the SLP was stronger to our south but that doesn't look like its happening.  These LES events are nowcast anyway so if anything that falls will be bonus IMO.

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