How far off was winter forecasts actually?

[WeatherArchive]

So how far off were the forecasters?  I remember some of you all ranting about a NE Pacific Index Snow Whizard (Wizard?) came up with and I had a sneaky suspicion it wouldn't work out due to the lack of amplification up north due to many reasons I won't get into here. 

 

It's mid winter (in a meteorological sense) and it's time to see how we are doing. Feb is half way here and it's a big deal now just to reach normal!

 

What I am curious is how do you feel about the forecasts? Not the actual winter itself but the way your predictions turned out.  Do you think you were almost spot on or missed it by a mile? Is it the "craw?" or the claw? (Joke from Get Smart TV Show)

 

Should we just speak into the cone of silence? https://www.wouldyoubelieve.com/graphics/cone_title.gif

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Lack of amplification?  Seriously?  Were you paying attention to December?  Probably the most amplified ridge any of us have ever seen.  It was centered over the West instead of Alaska, so the East got record breaking cold.  So the problem for December at least was not lack of amplification.  Way too early to write off Winter, though obviously the cold January predictions are a bust.  Historically, some La Nina's, like 1988/1989, wait until February to deliver.  

[Deweydog]

For many reasons I won't get into here, winter forecasts was 3.54 nautical miles off to the SSW.

[Guest happ]

La Nina can be as precisely dry as this winter has been so far.  Record-breaking values for lack of rain that were not forecast in long range predictions for California.   

[snow_wizard]

Isn't it a bit early for this?

[Dan the Weatherman]

La Nina can be as precisely dry as this winter has been so far.  Record-breaking values for lack of rain that were not forecast in long range predictions for California.   

 

This winter to date has been unusually dry for La Nina standards in Socal. Only having one storm of note to this point is absolutely pathetic even for Socal. Hopefully we can get some decent late season storms that bring up our totals.

[WeatherArchive]

it's now Feb and warmer then ever.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

it's now Feb and warmer then ever.

It's now February and colder than ever.