1/21 - 1/23 Plains/Midwest Blizzard

[hlcater]

What does what happened "last week" have to do with today?  Each weather system is an independent entity; and conditions and pressure patterns that influence it are not static and inert; but rather dynamic and in a state of constant flux.

 

Other than saying I am "wrong" w/o any genuine reasoning beyond invoking the concept of "blocking"; provide a good reason why a northerly track is "out of the question".

 

Instead of admitting that I gave a sound explanation for what the models would show a few hours later; you just dismiss everything I wrote in the most cavalier fashion.

Congratulations, you've met Craig.

[Minny_Weather]

I'll take whatever as long as we get more than Cedar Rapids. I have friends from there and they love to rub snow in my face  <_>

[Craig-OmahaWX]

All I did was disagree with you and you went all nuts on me. Calm down. We'll see what happens lol. 

[Money]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2018011600&fh=150

 

Big spread yet

[Tabitha]

All I did was disagree with you and you went all nuts on me. Calm down. We'll see what happens lol. 

 

Be so kind as to not spin a false narrative of the colloquy in order to veil the fact that you did not prevail...

[hlcater]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2018011600&fh=150

 

Big spread yet

Lotsa strong members in there. Maybe that means this has a lesser chance of trending into a turd? Anyone remember/have the ensemble members for last weeks system?

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Honestly, the latest GEFS looks even more uncertain. We can't be surprised though, this happens every time as we get closer. Yes we are approaching the hour of model mayhem and they will all begin to go there own way lol.

[NH4NU]

EURO looks almost identical to last night's 00z run at 120hrs

 

Places the Low right around Fall City 

Edited January 16, 2018 by NH4NU

[gosaints]

Honestly, the latest GEFS looks even more uncertain. We can't be surprised though, this happens every time as we get closer. Yes we are approaching the hour of model mayhem and they will all begin to go there own way lol.

Did they "trend" NW? And what amount of blocking?

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Damnit lol. Can never be easy. Que the north trend for a day then back south over us for 3 days projecting huge amounts over eastern NEB only to weaken into a fast moving cold front lol.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Gotta say though, the GFS has been more consistent. Less flip flopping. We shall see in the coming day. 

[Tabitha]

Gotta say though, the GFS has been more consistent.

 

No doubt about it...it has been wrong every time.

[Tom]

00z EPS/Control continue to like C NE up into MSP....

[bud2380]

Euro with another big shift NW. 6z a big shift NW. and model mayhem has begun.

[Tom]

06z GEFS took a big step towards the EPS...hard cutter folks...

 

 

 

[centralweather44]

My feeling is even if we do see moisture during the day on Sunday that some or most of it will fall as a mix or as rain. Temp profiles seem to be trending up ( even 2 degrees in the last 24 hours). Just not liking the trends and or being that close to a mixed Senario here in southeast Nebraska.

[GDR]

Looks like a dud in the making

[Clinton]

This won't be a dud eastern half of Neb and the NW half of Iowa should get blasted by this system based on the LRC.

[james1976]

Goin NW.....maybe it will come back SE. We've seen that this year too. 5 days out yet.

[Tom]

Looks like a dud in the making

Reasoning?

[gosaints]

No doubt about it...it has been wrong every time.

Kudos on the call and the sound reasoning

[Minny_Weather]

Still plenty of the time for the storm to weaken, strengthen, change track, magically crap out, etc. Don't get worked up over it yet.

[jaster220]

Be so kind as to not spin a false narrative of the colloquy in order to veil the fact that you did not prevail...

 

Now that gave me a chuckle

[Minny_Weather]

Just looked at the Euro. I'm not gonna worry one bit. 5 days is plenty of time for a South trend.

[CentralNebWeather]

Local forecasts have a blanket 50-70% chance of snow Saturday night through Sunday night.  Obviously way to early for specifics.

[Andrew NE]

[gosaints]

ICON

 

[gosaints]

GFS has slowed down the system a bit

[St Paul Storm]

Yeah 12z GFS slowing it down and wrapping it up again.

[hlcater]

Is the icon any good? I've gotten the impression that it probably isn't. How does dies it stack up to the GFS, Euro and CMC

[GDR]

Looks like storms in iowa

[GDR]

Reasoning?

. Snow wise in my area

[gosaints]

Is the icon any good? I've gotten the impression that it probably isn't. How does dies it stack up to the GFS, Euro and CMC

My impression is the same as yours.  Although my impression of the CMC is the same.

[gosaints]

Yeah 12z GFS slowing it down and wrapping it up again.

st paul weenie run!!!

[St Paul Storm]

st paul weenie run!!!

You do just as well down there. I’m not liking the trend of nasty gradients on the north and south side of the swath.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS nice Nebraska run.  I would take this.  With wind that would be a nice storm.  

[gosaints]

You do just as well down there. I’m not liking the trend of nasty gradients on the north and south side of the swath.

Rarely does it not pan out that way.

[james1976]

Oh that blows. Anything to block it?

[Clinton]

I think the ICON may be on to something, I think it will be a touch further east though.  If only this system could dig a little harder I could join in on this fun.

[indianajohn]

Still days away but not looking so hot for Chicago and NWI peeps!!!